海关总署公布最新数据显示，7月出口同比增长仅为1%，进口同比增长4.7%。尽管市场早已预期7月份外贸不及6月，却未曾料到偏差会如此之大。业内人士判断，下半年出口逊于上半年是大概率事件，全年外贸10%的增长目标面临不小的挑战。

The customs administration announced the latest figures show，July export year-on-year growth is only 1%，Imports increased 4.7% year-on-year。Although the market had expected in July than foreign trade June，But he has not expect deviation should be so big。Industry insiders judgment，In the first half of the second half as big export is probability events，Annual growth target of 10% of the foreign trade face quite a challenge。

　　据海关统计，我国7月份出口1769.4亿美元，增长1%，大幅低于市场预期的7.5%左右；贸易顺差251.5亿美元，收窄16.8%，逊于市场预期的350亿美元。经过季调后，7月份进出口、出口和进口的同比增长速度分别为1.4%、1.6%和1.2%。

According to customs statistics，In July China exported 176.94 billion dollars，1% increase，Significantly below market expectations of about 7.5%；The trade surplus of $25.15 billion，Narrow 16.8%，As market expectations of $35 billion。After the season after，In July, the import and export、Exports and imports are 1.4% year-on-year growth rate、1.6% and 1.2%。

　　相较于6月份出口的两位数增长，7月出口增速明显放缓令经济学家和市场人士大跌眼镜。

Compared with June exports of double-digit growth，Export growth slowed sharply in July to economists and market disappoints people。

　　来自瑞银证券的中国首席经济学家汪涛分析认为，全球经济指标下滑，包括近期美国ISM指数和德国IFO指数持续下挫，我国三季度出口的下行风险有所上升；巴克莱资本经济学家黄益平(微博)表示，考虑到继续减少的PMI新出口订单，预计出口增长会进一步放缓；星展银行大中华区高级经济学家梁兆基预计，净出口对GDP的贡献越来越小，所以投资和消费将承担拉动经济增长的主要责任。

From ubs securities of China's chief economist WangTao analysis thinks，Global economic indicators to slide，Including the most recent U.S. ISM index and the German IFO index last fall，Three quarters of the downside risk to our country exports rose；Barclays capital HuangYiPing economists(Micro bo)said，Consider to continue to reduce new export orders of the PMI，Export growth is expected to slow further；DBS bank in the greater China region, a senior economist LiangZhaoJi expected，The contribution of net exports to GDP is more and more little，So the investment and consumption will take the responsibility for promoting the economic increase of the main responsibility。

　　此前乐观的市场观察人士纷纷表现出悲观情绪，外贸企业家也向记者谈及了自身感受。

Previously optimistic market observers have showed negative emotions，Foreign trade entrepreneurs also spoke to reporters their own feelings。

　　上海丝绸集团董事长徐伟民早就有所预料。他告诉记者，从公司情况来看，1-6月份出口个位数增长，到7月份呈下降趋势。“下半年不如上半年，明年不如今年，”徐伟民判断，“主要原因一来是需求减少，而来是企业的综合成本仍在上涨。”

Shanghai silk group President XuWeiMin would have to expect。He told reporters，Judging from the company，1-June export single-digit growth，In July to drop。“As the second half of the first half，Next year this year than，”XuWeiMin judgment，“The main reason is way less demand，Is the enterprise's overall cost is still on the rise。”

　　此前，官方多次表态，有信心实现全年10%的贸易增速目标。交通银行(4.44,0.03,0.68%)金融研究中心报告预计，未来国际经济增长短期内难以明显好转，市场仍将持续低迷。加之国内出口企业经营成本上升，出口困难难以根本改观，未来整体出口增速可能仅维持在10%左右。(完)

after，The official said many times，Confident throughout the year 10% of trade growth realize the goal。Traffic bank(4.44,0.03,0.68%)Financial research center report is expected，Future international economic growth in the short term to improved obviously，The market downturn will continue。Together with the domestic export enterprise operating costs rise，Difficult to export to fundamental change，The whole future export growth may be running at only 10%。(finish)