美国煤炭概况：国内消费占比约90%、出口主要面向欧洲 近年来美国煤炭产量基本维持在10 亿吨左右，其中国内消费占比超过90%。

The general situation of coal：Domestic consumption accounted for more than 90%、Export mainly to Europe In recent years the United States the basic maintain coal output in 10 One hundred million tons，Which accounts for more than 90% than domestic consumption。

　　11 年煤炭产量、消费量和出口量分别为9.93 亿吨（其中东部阿巴拉契亚地区，中部地区和西部地区产量分别占30.8%、15.6%和53.7%）、9.10 亿吨和0.97 亿吨。其中出口欧洲和亚洲分别占比50.3%和25.7%。 现状：页岩气挤占电煤消费量，出口量近期已有显著回落 煤炭消费回落：11 和12 年上半年同比降4.8%和18.0%。主要由于：（1） 11 年经历罕见暖冬天气，冬季电力消费量同比下滑4.7%；（2）天然气价格大幅回落，导致火电比例下降（12年上半年较11年降7.2个百分点至36.1%）。 

11 Years of coal production、Consumption and exports are 9.93 One hundred million tons（East of the Appalachian region，The central region and western China accounted for 30.8% of output、15.6% and 53.7%）、9.10 One hundred million tons and 0.97 One hundred million tons。Including export to Europe and Asia than 50.3% and 25.7% respectively。 status：Shale gas occupy electricity coal consumption，Exports have dropped significantly recently Coal consumption fell：11 And 12 In the first half year-on-year drop in 4.8% and 18.0%。Mainly because：（1） 11 Years experience mild winter weather is rare，Winter power consumption fell 4.7% year-on-year；（2）Natural gas prices dropped sharply，Thermal power proportion to decline（In the first half of 12 years is 11 years drop 7.2% to 36.1%）。 

　　减产自3 月才开始：冬季美国煤炭需求同比减少了6860 万短吨，但同期煤炭产量同比仅减少了360 万短吨，从而导致年初国内煤炭供应出现大量剩余， 不过2 季度产量已有显著下降，同比降幅达到9.9%，短期供给过剩显著减缓。 出口量前期有增加，但6 月已显著回落：12 年1-6 月，美国煤炭出口量累计为5600 万吨，同比增长15.3%。

Reduction since the 3 Months before：Winter the United States demand for coal by 6860 year-on-year Thousands ton，But the same period year-on-year coal output by 360 only Thousands ton，Leading to domestic coal supply early appears to be a massive surplus， But 2 Quarter production has been more significantly，Year-on-year fell to 9.9%，Short-term surplus supply significant slow down。 The early exports increased，But six Month has dropped significantly：12 Years 1-6 month，The United States coal exports total for 5600 Ten thousand tons，Year-on-year growth of 15.3%。

　　其中，6 月份单月出口量已由3-5 月的1100 万短吨回落至980 万短吨，同比增速也降至7.3%。 短期：东部高成本西部港口瓶颈，致煤炭出口难提升 根据EIA 7 月的预测，12 和13 年美国煤炭出口量同比增长4.6%和-13.8%， 而同期煤炭产量将分别回落8.9%和6.0%。

Among them，6 Month by month in exports has 3-5 Month of 1100 Thousands ton fall to 980 Thousands ton，Year-on-year rate reduced from 7.3% to。 short-term：The east high costs and western port bottleneck，The coal exports difficult to ascend According to the EIA 7 Month forecast，12 And 13 In the United States in coal exports year-on-year growth of 4.6% and 13.8%， Over the same period, the coal output will drop of 8.9% and 6.0% respectively。

　　出口量下降的主要原因是：（1） 东部地区拥集中了全美90%的煤炭出口能力，但由于开采成本较高，出口价格优势不大（折算价较欧洲、中国港口价格高20-50 美元/吨）；（2）西部Powder River Basin 矿区产量占40%，按目前价格通过铁路西运至西雅图和加拿大等地口岸运往亚洲（另一条沿铁路南下经墨西哥湾地区口岸，运输成本较高），价格有约30 美元的优势，但由于港口的铁路的制约（港口1200 万短吨已满负荷运转，铁路部分线路利用率也高达70%以上），新增出口量有限，因此该矿区95%以上煤炭为国内消费。 中长期：页岩气影响不大，消费量出口量20 年维持基本平稳 能源结构：根据EIA的预测未来30年煤炭占能源比维持18%-20%的水平，而普遍令人担忧的页岩气，将主要替代传统天然气（2020年页岩气在天然气产量中占比从24.8%提升至35.0%）而非煤炭；

The main reason is in quantity：（1） The eastern region have focused on the 90% of the nation's coal export capacity，But because of production cost is higher，Export price advantage is not big（Convert price is Europe、Chinese ports high price 20 to 50 Dollars/tons）；（2）The western Powder River Basin Mining area yield 40%，At current prices through the railway west shipped to the Seattle and Canada, port to Asia（Another down the railway from the gulf of Mexico region along the border，Transportation cost is higher），Price about 30 The advantage of $，But because of the port of railway restriction（Port 1200 Thousands ton already full load operation，Railway line utilization of also is as high as 70% above），New export Co., LTD，So the more than 95% coal mining area for domestic consumption。 long-term：Shale gas the impact is not big，Consumption exports 20 Years maintain basic stable Energy structure：According to the EIA forecast the future 30 years of coal energy than maintain 18%-20% of the level，And general worrying shale gas，Will mainly to replace the traditional natural gas（Shale gas in 2020, natural gas production accounts for 24.8% of than from up to 35.0%）Rather than coal；

　　产量：未来20年美国煤炭产量也基本维持稳定，其中11-20年和20-30年的产量复合增长率分别为-0.5%和1.2%，西部产能释放弥补东部减产； 出口量：未来美国煤炭出口将维持缓慢增长的态势，2011年-2035年年均复合增速为0.8%。其中动力煤和冶金煤增速分别为0.9%和0.8%。 风险提示：宏观经济下滑超预期，煤价下跌。

production：The next 20 years the United States also basic maintain the stable coal production，11 of them-20 years and 20-30 years of output compound annual growth rate were 0.5% and 1.2%，The western capacity for release eastern crop yield； exports：The future U.S. coal exports will remain slow growth trend，In 2011-2035, with an average annual growth of 0.8% for the compound。Including coal and metallurgical coal power growth of 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively。 Risk warning：Macro economic downturn than expected，Coal prices fall。