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专家分析成品油下月或许还会涨--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-10
由于成品油的定价机制已经广为人知,不少车主已不再涨价前一刻才急急忙忙到油站加油。记者连续两天走访广州部分油站发现,部分油站继续保持着优惠措施,不过也有油站在涨价前以“缺油”为由暂停供油。
Because the oil is already well known pricing mechanism,Many owners already no longer before prices just before it to rush on oil。Reporter for two days visiting guangzhou part that oil,Part of the oil continue to keep the preferential measures,But there are oil prices in before“Lack of oil”Suspended on the fuel supply。
“油价上涨后,我们一样有优惠”
“After oil prices,We have preferential”
9日中午,尽管天气炎热,在广州大道南的中油BP加油站,前来“抢油”的车主还是占满了仅有的四个加油口,队伍甚至排到了临近的马路上。记者在现场看到,一张写着“93#粤IV7.13元,省了0.21元”的告示牌被摆放在入站显眼处,一位工作人员正在忙不停歇地指挥。油站负责人向记者表示,以前给车主免费提供纸巾和饮用水,现在改成降价优惠。对于之前有车主担心油价上涨前夕,优惠措施也会受到影响。“还是一样的,这些是我们自己内部的优惠,油价上涨后我们一样有优惠。”该负责人表示,能够有优惠主要得益于前段时间低价时有足够的存量,如今可以回馈给广大车主。
At noon on 9,Though the weather was hot,In guangzhou avenue south of zhongyou BP gas station,Came to“Rob oil”Owners or fill the only four come on the mouth,Team even arranged to the adjacent to the road。Reporters on the scene to see,A written“# 93 guangdong IV7.13 yuan,Save 0.21 yuan”Sign was put into the station in a prominent place,A staff are busy nonstop command。Oil terminal chief told reporters,Previous owner provide free paper towel and drinking water,Is now a preferential price。For a car owners worried about rising gas prices before eve,Preferential measures may also be affected。“Is still the same,These are our own internal discount,Oil prices are favorable after。”The official said,To have the preferential is mainly thanks to some time ago to have low enough stock,Now you can give back to the owners。
华南植物园对面一间加油站,93号汽油每升的优惠幅度也有0.2元,昨日下午加油的车辆同样排着“长龙”,“我们油站一直都有这个优惠,油价涨或者跌都是一样的,没有影响。”该油站负责人说。而天府路加油站93号汽油的优惠幅度虽然只有0.15元/升,但地处商业旺地也吸引了不少车主,昨日下午加油的车同样排起了长龙。
South China botanical garden opposite a gas station,93 gasoline every litres of the discount rate also have 0.2 yuan,The same vehicle yesterday afternoon come on line“Long dragon”,“We have always had this preferential gas,Oil prices rose or fall are the same,Without the influence。”The station chief said。And the gas Station Road 93 gasoline favourable extent although only 0.15 yuan/l,But business is located in the flourishing and attracted many owners,The same car yesterday afternoon come on line up the long dragon。
“93号断货了,请明天再来吧”
“# 93 broke goods,Please come here tomorrow”
前晚10时许,新快报记者来到天河车陂路某加油站发现,与其他油站大排长龙大相径庭,该油站空荡荡一片,部分加油机的灯都没开。对此,一名工作人员朝记者摆了摆手,“93号的汽油断货了,请你明天再来吧!”该工作人员说。对于为何会断货,该工作人员称,知道油价即将上涨,许多车主提前加油导致的。“那么平时更多的人加油,怎么不会断货呢?”记者不解地问,该工作人员则不再回答。
Started at about 10,New express the reporter comes to tianhe car suited LuMou gas station found,And other oil terminal long queues at a rather different,The oil terminal empty one,Part of the tankers the lights didn't drive。this,A staff reporter put the hand toward,“# 93 gasoline broke goods,Would you please come here tomorrow!”The staff said。For why will break goods,The officials say,Know oil prices will increase,Many owners to go ahead。“So at ordinary times more people come on,How will not break goods?”Reporters don't understand ground to ask,The workers are no longer answer。
而与此同时,新快报记者随后走访了附近的天府路加油站和员村五横路对出的加油站发现,这两间油站均有93号汽油销售,天府路加油站还继续有优惠。
And at the same time,New express reporter then visited the road near the gas station and member of the village five horizontal and the gas station found,Between the two stations are 93 gasoline sales,The gas Station Road continued to have preferential。
9日下午3时许,新快报记者再次来到车陂路加油站发现,加油站依然一片冷清,一名工作人员表示,只有两台加油机能加93号汽油,其他加油机均无油可加。
9, at about 3 in the afternoon,New express journalist again came to car suited road that gas station,Gas station is still a piece of cold and cheerless,A staff member said,Only two Taiwan come on function and 93 gasoline,There were no other tankers oil can be added。
专家分析
Expert analysis
运输业成本上升
The rise in the cost of transportation industry
中宇资讯王金涛指出,最新的三地变化率显示,截至外盘8月8日,三地原油连续22日移动加权均价每桶104.510美元,较基准价涨7.008美元/桶,三地原油变化率+7.19%。符合22个工作日±4%的调价政策,不过此次油价上调将给经济带来一些负面影响。
ZhongYu information WangJinTao said,The latest rate shows three places,By WaiPan on August 8,The three places for 22 consecutive moving crude oil weighted average price of $104.510 a barrel,A benchmark price rose $7.008 / barrel,The three places crude oil rate + 7.19%。Accord with 22 days of plus or minus 4% pricing policy,But the oil price rise will bring some negative impact on the economy。
油价上涨增加用油企业及消费者的开支,主要是对农业、林业、渔业还有交通运输业带来一定的冲击,特别是像出租、公共交通、长途运输等带来直接的成本上升压力。短期来看,因成品油价格在CPI中所占比重较小,且中国家庭能源消费中,电和天然气占大部分,而燃油的权重仅为2%,故而短期内此次成品金银岛在分析成品油调价的影响时表示,油价格上调对家庭生活成本直接影响有限。
Rising oil prices increase oil companies and consumers' spending,Is mainly to the agriculture、forestry、Fishing and transportation industry bring a certain impact,Especially like rent、Public transportation、Long distance transportation bring direct costs are rising pressure。The short term,Because gas prices in the CPI proportion is small,And China's household energy consumption,Electricity and natural gas accounts for most,And the weight of fuel is only 2%,So in the short term the finished product oil refiners on the analysis of the treasure island influence said,Oil price rise cost directly influence on the family life is limited。
下月还可能再涨
Next month may also further price rises
中宇资讯王金涛称短期来看,欧美国家仍未摆脱债务危机的阴霾,中国刚刚公布的7月CPI也再次显示经济的疲软,世界主要经济体仍有继续提高货币流动性的可能,美国在三季度末期也有推出新一轮量化宽松货币政策(QE3)的可能性,国际原油等大宗商品价格仍处在震荡上行通道,9月之后成品油再次上调的可能性还是有的,但第四季度中美等多个国家都面临领导人换届选举,政治层面的博弈可能使得原油等主要大宗商品价格波动趋缓。
ZhongYu information WangJinTao says the short term,The European and American countries still not get out of debt crisis in the haze,China has just published July CPI also again shows that the weak economy,The world's leading economies are still continue to improve the money flow may,The United States also have launched late in the third quarter in a new round of quantitative loose monetary policy(QE3)Possibility of,International crude oil and other commodities price is still in shock uplink channel,9 month after oil once again raised the possibility of or some,But in the fourth quarter, China and the United States, and other countries are facing leaders general election,Political circles of the game may make the crude oil and other major commodity price volatility to slow down。
安讯思息旺能源成品油分析师廖凯舜告诉记者,在10日成品油零售价格上调之后,如果国际布伦特原油期货价格能够持稳在110美元/桶或以上,在9月10日将会再次迎来国家上调成品油零售价格,那么其间这种上调价格的预期,可能会支撑反弹后的柴油批发价格继续上涨。而如果国际原油价格缺乏利好因素反弹无力,柴油批发价格还会面临走跌,毕竟疲软的供需基础面难以形成对价格的支撑。
Ann-think breath energy product oil analysts LiaoKaiShun excess told reporters,In the 10 th retail price rise after oil,If international brent crude oil prices steady to $110 per barrel or above,On September 10, in countries will once again raised oil retail price,So it raised prices of the expected,May support rebound after the wholesale price of diesel fuel continues to rise。And if the international oil prices lack of positive factors to rebound,The wholesale price of diesel oil traders will face,After all the weak demand and supply basis to the formation of a surface of the support of price。
相关报道
Related reports
三连降后两大石油公司哭穷
Three after rising two oil company cry poor
据媒体报道,上半年国内成品油价格出现了难得一遇的“三连降”局面,加上蔓延全球的经济危机对中国石油石化产业带来的负面影响,中国石油和化学工业联合会透露,上半年多数化工和炼油企业资金周转已出现严重困难,甚至中石化、中石油这样的大型企业也是捉襟见肘。
According to media reports,Domestic product prices appeared in the first half in a rare“Rising three”situation,The global economic crisis and spreading to China petroleum and petrochemical industry with a negative influence,China petroleum and chemical industry association said,Most of the first half and chemical refining enterprise fund turnover already appear serious difficulties,Even sinopec、The oil in a large enterprise is also such under。
中国石油和化学工业联合会近日发布的报告显示,导致资金周转捉襟见肘的原因,一方面是利润大幅下降,另一方面则是税负保持增长。数据显示,1至5月,石油和化工行业税负达3385.25亿元,同比增长1.1%。其中,化学工业上缴税金同比增长5.7%;炼油业虽然亏损,但缴税总额仍达1519.02亿元,仅比去年小幅下降2.7%。
China petroleum and chemical industry association report released recently,The cause of the guts to fund turnover,On the one hand is profit down dramatically,On the other hand, is to keep the tax burden growth。Data shows,1 to 5 months,Oil and chemical industry tax burden of 338.525 billion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 1.1%。Among them,Chemical industry over taxes year-on-year growth of 5.7%;Oil refining industry although losses,But still total pay tax of 151.902 billion yuan,Only a small drop 2.7% than last year。
一位券商研究员称,目前业内普遍认为,国有石油公司二季度业绩堪忧,预期中国石化二季度每股收益0.10元左右,中国石油二季度每股收益0.14元左右。中石化半年业绩同比下降幅度可能高达40%。对此,卓创资讯分析师胡慧春指出,两大石油公司上半年业绩下滑多少还无法定论,但可以肯定的是,炼油板块上半年出现大幅亏损。
A researcher says brokers,At present the common thought,State-owned oil companies in the second quarter performance in danger,Expected China petrochemical second quarter earnings per share of 0.10 yuan,China's oil in the second quarter earnings per share of 0.14 yuan。Sinopec half year up performance decline could be as high as 40%。this,Zhuo and analysts HuHuiChun points out that information,Two big oil companies the first half performance decline also not be decided how much,But it certainly is,Oil refining plate appear lost in the first half。
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