“一降一升”奥秘何在?随着进口猪肉数量的增加，是否会对国内猪肉价格产生影响?

“A drop a liter”What mystery?With the increasing number of the pork imports，Whether it will affect to the domestic price of pork?

　　进口猪肉价格上涨51%加工贸易迅增是主因

Import pork prices 51% processing trade rapidly increasing is the main reason

　　据青岛海关统计，今年前7个月，山东口岸进口猪肉1.2万吨，比去年同期增加1.7倍;价值3609万美元，激增3倍;进口平均价格为每吨3113美元，约合每斤9.8元，上涨51%。

According to Qingdao customs statistics，The first seven months of this year，Shandong port imported 12000 metric tons of pork，Than the same period last year increased 1.7 times;Value of $36.09 million，Surge 3 times;The average price for imported $3113 per ton，$per catty 9.8 yuan，Rose 51%。

　　“山东口岸猪肉制品加工贸易的迅猛增长是猪肉进口大幅增长的主要原因。”青岛海关有关负责人表示，今年以来，山东口岸猪肉制品加工贸易发展迅速，使得对猪肉的需求大幅增加。但由于我国家庭养殖生产模式的制约、猪肉质量控制难等客观因素，国内生产企业和国外客户更多地倾向于选择进口猪肉原料，带动加工贸易猪肉进口成倍增长。

“Shandong port pork products processing trade growth is pork imports the chief reason for the increase in sharply。”Qingdao customs officials said，Since this year，Shandong port pork products processing trade development rapidly，To make pork demand increase。But because our country family breeding production mode restriction、Pork quality control such as difficult objective factors，Domestic production enterprises and foreign customers more inclined to choose pork imports raw materials，Promote processing trade pork imports doubled。

　　此外，明显的价格优势进一步提升了国内食品加工企业采购进口猪肉的热情。据统计，我国生猪养殖成本高于世界上绝大多数国家，目前国内生猪平均养殖成本为每公斤6.5元左右，相比之下国外一些发达国家在生猪的养殖和肉制品的生产、销售流通环节具有明显的规模化优势。像美国这样养殖业发达的国家平均猪肉养殖成本折合成人民币仅为每公斤4.5元，这使得进口猪肉有着天然的竞争优势，显得格外“物美价廉”。进口猪肉使用比例较高的食品企业成本优势十分明显，因此越来越多的企业将猪肉原料采购的触角伸向境外，这直接推动今年以来山东口岸猪肉进口急剧升温。

In addition，Clear price advantage to further enhance the domestic food processing enterprise purchase pork imports enthusiasm。According to the statistics，Our country pig-producing costs than most countries in the world，At present domestic pig breeding average cost per kilogram 6.5 yuan，Compared with some developed countries abroad in pig breeding and meat production、Sales circulation link has obvious scale advantage。Such as the United States breeding developed country average pork production cost into renminbi is only 4.5 yuan per kilogram，This makes the pork imports has a natural competitive advantage，Appear particularly“affordable”。Pork imports use proportion higher food enterprise cost advantage obviously，So more and more enterprises will pork raw material purchasing antenna reach overseas，This directly promote since this year shandong port pork imports rose sharply。

　　统计显示，今年前7个月，山东口岸以加工贸易方式进口猪肉9874吨，增加1.6倍，占同期山东口岸猪肉进口总量的85.2%。其中，外商投资企业进口占主导。前7个月，外商投资企业进口猪肉9935吨，增加1.6倍，占同期山东口岸猪肉进口总量的85.7%。

Statistics show that，The first seven months of this year，Shandong port in processing trade mode import 9874 metric tons of pork，Increased 1.6 times，The same period of shandong port pork imports 85.2% of the total。the，Foreign investment enterprises import dominance。First seven months，Foreign investment enterprises import 9935 metric tons of pork，Increased 1.6 times，The same period of shandong port pork imports 85.7% of the total。

　　国内猪肉连跌6个月双节前或迎“拐点”

Domestic pork even fell 6 months double preganglionic or meet“Inflection point”

　　与进口猪肉数量、价格一路走高形成鲜明对比的是，国内市场猪肉的持续低位运行。

And the number of pork imports、Prices all the way walk high contrast，The domestic market of pork for low operation。

　　记者在位于水清沟、团岛等地的农贸市场采访时了解到，猪肉价格仍旧处于低位，五花肉卖价为每斤 12.5元。据了解，春节后全国猪肉价格持续下降，除端午节前后出现短暂小幅上涨外，今年以来猪肉价格基本维持在较低的价位，价格连续下跌累计超过6个月。

Reporter in the clear water ditch、Group island, agricultural products market in an interview to understand，Pork prices remained in a low level，Pork belly price per jin 12.5 yuan。It is understood，After the Spring Festival, the national pork prices continued to decline，In addition to the Dragon Boat Festival short before and after a more modest outside，Since this year, pork prices basic maintain in low price，Price continuous down accumulated more than 6 months。

　　与此相对应的是生猪出场价格的低迷。青岛市生猪市场信息平台统计显示，今年8月27日生猪出场价格为每斤6.81元，较去年同期下跌26.77%。

The flipside is pig out price downturn。Qingdao pig market information platform statistics show，August 27, appearances for the pig price per catty 6.81 yuan，Compared to the same period last year fell 26.77%。

　　业内人士指出，我国生猪生产的周期性明显，一般2-3年为一个周期，本轮波动周期始于2010年，2010年6月猪肉开始涨价，2011年7月和8月达到高峰，2012年1月下旬开始下跌，经历了几个月的下跌后，猪肉价格将迎来拐点。监测数据显示，全国猪肉价格6月中旬至7月底价格整体趋稳，8月份以来价格开始反弹，8月中旬涨速有所加快。

The personage inside course of study points out that，China pig production of periodic obviously，General 2-3 years as a cycle，This fluctuation cycle began in 2010，June 2010 pork began to rise in price，2011 July and August peak，The end of January, 2012 started to decline，Experienced several months after the fall，Pork prices will have inflection point。Monitoring data show，The national pork prices mid-june to the end of July overall prices stabilised，Since August prices began to rebound，In the middle of August rise somewhat faster speed。

　　而即将到来的中秋、国庆“双节”将为猪肉价格回升提供动力。

And the upcoming Mid-Autumn festival、National Day“Double festival”For pork prices rebounded to provide power。

　　警惕进口猪肉冲击国内养殖业

Vigilance import pork impact domestic breeding

　　虽然进口猪肉以加工贸易方式进口为主，这些原料加工成成品后出口到了国外，不会直接冲击国内猪肉价格，但由于加工企业越来越多地转向海外采购，对国内猪肉原料需求下降，无疑增加了国内市场猪肉的供给量，进而改变了国内市场供需关系，一定程度上导致了国内猪肉价格的走低。

Although pork imports to the processing trade import primarily way，These raw material into finished products exported to abroad after，Will not directly impact the domestic price of pork，But as a result of processing enterprises are turning more and more to the overseas purchase，On domestic pork decreased demand for raw materials，No doubt increased the domestic market pork supply，Changed the domestic market supply and demand，To a certain extent, led to the domestic pork prices lower。

　　“猪肉大量进口间接冲击国内养殖业，或加速国内养殖户退出。”业内人士指出，在猪肉供应量不足时，进口猪肉对市场价格的影响是微乎其微的，因为进口量与全国的消费量相比占比很小;但当猪肉市场供应处于相对饱和时，进口猪肉对市场的影响会显现。我国生猪生产的主要单位是家庭养殖户，产业结构较为分散，抗冲击能力较弱。今年以来，猪肉价格持续低迷，养殖户利润已大幅下降，在这种情况下进口猪肉大增，尽管主要用于加工贸易，但将间接影响生猪养殖户的积极性。

“Pork in the importation of large quantity of indirect impact domestic breeding，Or accelerated domestic farmers exit。”The personage inside course of study points out that，In the pork supply shortage，Pork imports of market price's influence is negligible，Because imports with the national consumption accounts for compared than small;But when pork market supply in a relatively saturated time，Pork imports to influence it has on the market will be revealed。Production of live pigs in China the main unit is a family farmers，The industrial structure more dispersed，Impact resistant ability is weak。Since this year，Pork prices continued downturn，Farmers profit has declined dramatically，In this case a pork imports，Although is mainly used for processing trade，But the indirect effects of pig breeding farmers enthusiasm。