近日，印度经济监控中心(Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy，以下简称CMIE)表示，印度2012-2013财年内的进口额或将出现小幅度萎缩。

recently，India's economy the monitoring center(Centre For monitoring Indian economy，Hereinafter referred to as CMIE)said，India in the 2012-2013 year imports or will appear small amplitude atrophy。

　　据CMIE估计，在2012至2013财年内，印度的进口总额将达到4770亿美元，相比之前预计的进口增长5%而言，出现2.5%的萎缩。原因主要是印度黄金的进口出现大幅下降，以此导致非石油及润滑油类产品的进口也在今年第二季度中暴跌。来自印度商务部的数据也显示，印度于今年第二季度中进口的黄金减少了40%至50%。

According to CMIE estimate，In 2012 to 2013 in fiscal year，India's total imports will reach $477 billion，Compared with the prior to import growth in 5%，Some 2.5% of atrophy。Are the main reasons why India gold import appear to drop considerably，This lead to non-oil and lubricating oil products import also in the second quarter of the slump。The ministry of commerce from India's data also showed，India in the second quarter of this year in the gold imports decreased by 40% to 50%。

　　与此同时，CMIE预计，本年度内石油及润滑油类产品的进口也将减少3%至1503亿美元，与去年增加46.4%的情形全然不同。根据原油价格，该机构称原油的进口会减少1.7%。另外，由于国内原油精炼产量的增加，石油产品的进口也将预期下降13.2%。

meanwhile，CMIE is expected to，Within the year oil and oil products import will also reduce 3% to $150.3 billion，And last year 46.4% of the situation completely different。According to the price of crude oil，The agency says crude oil import will be reduced by 1.7%。In addition，Because the domestic oil refining of increased production，The import of petroleum products will also is expected to decline 13.2%。

　　鉴于进口方面呈现下降趋势，印度长久以来的贸易逆差或将有所改善。CMIE称，今年第二季度印度的贸易逆差相比同期减少了63亿美元，总额达399亿美元。

In view of the import side has declined，India has long trade deficit or will improve。CMIE says，The second quarter this year India's trade deficit than over the same period fell by $6.3 billion，A total of 39.9 billion dollars。

　　另外，CMIE还预计，受印度外汇储备增加的影响，今年下半年，印度存款储蓄将出现增长。

In addition，CMIE also is expected to，India's Foreign currency reserves rose by the impact，The second half of this year，India deposit savings will appear growth。

　　今年三月时，印度的储蓄呈现17.4%的增长，而涨幅在七月时却又一度跌至14.7%。CMIE称，今年下半年内，净资金流的增加会拉动储蓄增长，预期涨幅为15.8%。

In march this year when，India's savings on the growth of 17.4%，And the increase in July but once again dropped to 14.7%。CMIE says，In the second half of this year，The increase of net cash flow will pull savings growth，Expected to rise 15.8%。

　　然而，尽管印度大多数银行的存款利率均未调整，活期储蓄仍然增长缓慢。CMIE指出，其原因可能与今年第一季度时外汇储备减少有关。

however，Although most Indian bank deposit interest rates were not adjust，A savings account is still slow growth。CMIE pointed out that，The reason may be the first quarter of this year and the relevant Foreign exchange reserves to reduce。