近期，作为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一，外贸出口得到党中央、国务院异乎寻常的关注。8月中旬到下旬，温家宝总理10天内先后到浙江、广东调研，并提出要高度重视进出口贸易中存在的问题和困难，千方百计稳定出口。在稳增长成为当前经济工作重点任务的背景下，稳定出口的重要性不言而喻。但问题是，稳定出口的“出口”又在哪里呢？

recent,As the fuel economic growth"troika"of,Foreign trade export get the party central committee/The state council unusual attention.In the middle of August to b,Prime minister wen jiabao has 10 days to zhejiang/Guangdong research,And put forward the import and export trade should attach great importance to the existing problems and difficulties,Leave no stone unturned stable export.In the steady growth become the economic work under the background of key task,Stable export importance is self-evident.But the problem is,Stable export"export"And where is it?

　　为什么要稳定出口

Why want to stable export

　　出口不仅是拉动经济增长的重要力量，也是增加就业的主要渠道。正因如此，出口形势的深刻变化，势必会对经济社会造成深远影响。考察今年以来出口形势的变化，突出呈现出五方面的特征：

Export is not only an important force in promoting the economic growth,The increase of employment is also the main channel.Because of this,Export situation of the profound changes,Will cause profound influence on economy and society.Investigation since this year export situation changes,Outstanding presents the characteristics of five aspects:

　　一是总体增速回落明显，前7个月累计仅为7.8%，不仅大幅低于去年同期的23.4%，也低于年初10%左右的预定目标；二是月度增速波动巨大，从1月的负增长，到2月快速提高至18.3%，到4月又回落至4.9%，随后的5月和6月又快速回升至两位数水平，而在7月又降至1%；三是对发达经济体出口中，对美国的依赖度越来越大，对美出口金额占到美日欧总额的42%以上，而两年前这一数值仅为37%左右，对美依赖度的加深以及美国大选年的特殊时点，使得今年以来中美之间贸易摩擦不断增加；四是对新兴经济体出口趋于分化，对俄罗斯、东盟等出口依然处于较高水平，但对巴西、韩国等出口增速降至个位数区间，甚至出现负增长，造成我国出口由局部性问题演变成全局性困境；五是东部沿海出口大省出口增速下滑更为明显，广东、江苏、山东和浙江等省出口同比增速较上年下滑幅度基本在20个百分点以上，低增长态势非常明显。

One is the general growth dropped significantly,For the first seven months accumulated is only 7.8%,Not only greatly lower than the same period last year 23.4%,Also at the beginning of less than 10% of the intended target;The second is the monthly growth great fluctuation,From January to negative growth,To February rapid increase to 18.3%,To April and dropped back to 4.9%,Subsequent may and June and quickly picked up to the level of two digits,And in July and drop to 1%;The third is to advanced economies in export,Dependence on the United States is more and more big,The amount of exports to the United States accounted for more than 42% of the total amount of Europe and Japan,Two years ago the numerical is only 37% or so,The deepening of dependency to beauty and the American election year special time,Make this year between China and the United States since the trade friction increasing;The fourth is to emerging economies' exports tend to differentiation,On Russia's/Asean and export is still in a higher level,But to Brazil/South Korea and other export growth fell to single-digit interval,Appear even negative growth,Cause of our country export by local problems evolved into global dilemma;Five is the eastern coastal province exports falling export growth is more obvious,guangdong/jiangsu/Shandong and zhejiang provinces exports year-on-year growth in the previous decline amplitude basic more than 20%,Low growth situation is very obvious.

　　上述五方面的特征，决定了现阶段我国出口增速低、波动大、依赖增加、后劲不足，逐渐由局部性问题演变成全局性困境，迫切需要采取针对性措施。

The characteristics of the above five aspects,Decision of the present stage of China's export growth low/Fluctuation big/Rely on increase/Lack of staying power,By the local problems gradually evolved into a global dilemma,Urgent need to take pertinent measures.

　　离不开政府的促进措施

Without the government's promotion measures

　　短期来看，要改善外贸环境、稳定出口增速，政府适度的鼓励政策和贸易促进措施必不可少。具体来看：

Short term,To improve the foreign trade environment/Stable export growth,The government moderate encouragement policy and trade promotion measures necessary.Specific to see:

　　一是要适当增加对外贸企业的政策扶持力度，通过补贴和税收优惠等措施缓解外贸企业成本上升的压力。虽然今年财政收入较上年同期有显著下降，但仍高于经济增速，对外贸行业和企业仍有一定的结构性减税空间，财政政策有必要更加积极作为。

One is to appropriately increase on foreign trade enterprise policy support strength,Through subsidies and tax incentives and other measures to alleviate the pressure of the rise in the cost of foreign trade enterprises.Although this year year-on-year revenue has dropped significantly,But still higher than economic growth,On foreign trade industry and enterprise there is still a certain structural tax cuts space,Fiscal policy is necessary to more active as.

　　二是要加大对外贸企业外汇风险的保障力度。今年以来，人民币升值步伐放缓甚至出现贬值压力，这对于出口行业形成一定利好，但是人民币汇率波动幅度的加大也意味着企业面临更大的外汇风险，如果应对不足，可能会显著压缩企业盈利空间，为此一方面要求企业主动提高外汇风险应对能力，另一方面政府也要借鉴德国等经验，加强对企业的汇率保险服务，对汇率波幅超过一定程度的损失给予补偿。

The second is to strengthen the foreign trade enterprise foreign exchange risk security efforts.Since this year,RMB appreciation slow appear even depreciation pressure,This form must be good for export industry,But the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range of the increase also means that enterprise face greater foreign exchange risk,If the dealing with insufficient,May be significant compression enterprise profit space,Therefore, on the one hand require companies active improve foreign exchange risk coping ability,On the other hand the government should learn from experience of Germany, etc,To strengthen enterprise's exchange rate insurance service,To exchange rate volatility more than a certain degree of loss compensation.

　　三是增加对企业的出口信用支持，鼓励企业开拓海外市场。目前我国主要出口市场中，对美国和欧盟出口占比都在17%左右，对日本出口占比7%左右，美日欧三者合计超过40%，出口市场集中度较高，这种结构造成我国出口极易受到外围经济波动的影响，且容易招致外贸摩擦。正因如此，一定要坚定实施出口分散化策略，不断拓展出口市场，尤其是扩大对发展中经济体的出口，而这就需要国家为企业提供必要的出口信用支持。

Three is to increase to enterprise's export credit support,Encourage enterprises to exploit overseas market.At present our country main export markets,Exports to the United States and the European Union are in more than 17%,To Japan accounts for more than 7%,The European three total more than 40%,Export market concentration is higher,This kind of structure has caused our export vulnerable to peripheral economic fluctuations,And easy to cause the foreign trade friction.Because of this,Must firmly implement export decentralized strategy,Continue to expand export market,Especially in developing economies expand export,And this requires countries to provide enterprises with the necessary export credit support.

　　四是增大对中小民营企业的扶持力度。从现阶段来看，在国有企业出口显著下滑、外商投资企业出口优势逐渐消失导致出口显著放缓的情况下，民营企业成为稳定我国外贸出口最能倚重的主体。因此，当前政府的重要工作就是要继续优化民营企业尤其是中小民营企业的发展环境，在税费、融资、用工、科技成果应用等方面提供便利，进一步发挥其在稳定外贸方面的先锋队和主力军作用。

The fourth is to increase the support for small and medium-sized private enterprises.At the present stage to see from,In the state-owned enterprises to export decline significantly/Foreign investment enterprises to export advantage gradually disappear to export slows significantly,Private enterprises become the stability our country foreign trade export most can rely on the subject.therefore,The current government's important work is to continue to optimize the private enterprise, especially small and medium private enterprises development environment,In the taxes/financing/labor/Science and technology achievements provide convenient application, etc,Further exert the stability in the vanguard of the foreign trade aspect and main force action.

　　转型升级是根本

The transformation and upgrading is fundamental

　　长期而言，建立在劳动力成本优势上的传统外贸势必要走转型升级之路。这是长期保持外贸竞争力的根本，也是我国外贸发展必须要走的可行之路。

In the long run,Based on the traditional labor cost advantage of foreign trade will be to go the transformation and upgrading of road.This is a very long-term keep foreign trade competitiveness of the fundamental,China is the foreign trade development must go the way.

　　德国和日本的外贸发展历程已清楚表明，建立在产业结构升级基础上的外贸体系，即使在面对本币升值、劳动力和原材料上升、发达市场萎缩等挑战时，也可以保持竞争优势。随着人口红利的逐渐消失，没有哪一个经济体能够在劳动密集型行业保持长久竞争优势。我国也不例外。企业转型升级可能会给外贸出口带来一定“阵痛”，但只要节奏把握较好且策略得当，则可以尽可能地缩短这一历程。

Germany and Japan's foreign trade development already clear,Based on the upgrading of the industrial structure on the basis of the foreign trade system,Even in the face of a stronger currency/Rising labor and raw materials/Developed markets such as atrophy challenge,Can also keep competitive advantage.As the population dividend of gradually disappear,No economy can keep long in labor-intensive industry competitive advantage.Our country is no exception.Enterprise transformation and upgrade may give foreign trade export bring certain"pains",But as long as rhythm grasp good and proper strategy,It can shorten the process as much as possible.

　　一方面，要利用现阶段我国就业总量压力逐渐缓解的有利时期，加快推进外贸产业转型步伐，加大产业转移力度；另一方面，要利用国家较为丰富的财政实力，加大对产业研究发展的扶持，促进新技术的应用，加快产业升级改造步伐。需要特别强调的是，由于单纯从劳动力成本看，中西部地区仅落后东部地区5年左右，因此，要摒弃简单地、平移式地将劳动密集型产业向内地转移的做法，在产业转移进程中必然要辅以调整升级的策略，否则只不过是将现阶段劳动密集型产业的困境延迟而已，很快又将爆发。

On the one hand,To use in our country at present stage total employment pressure gradually ease favorable period,Accelerate the pace of foreign trade industry transformation,Increase the industrial transfer dynamics;On the other hand,To use of the country's relatively rich financial strength,Strengthen the industry research and development support,To promote the application of new technology,To speed up the pace of industrial upgrading.Need is special emphasis,Because only from the labor costs to see,The Midwest behind only the eastern region about 5 years,therefore,To abandon simply/Translation type the labor-intensive industry move inland practice,In the industrial transfer in the process must adjust the strategy with the upgrade,Or just will present labor intensive industry dilemma delay it,Soon and will break out.