由于日本政府宣布“购买”钓鱼岛而引发的中日争端不可避免地从政治领域延伸到经济领域。民众自发的“抵制日货”行动让中日经贸关系降入冰点。那么，中日经济之间的依存度究竟如何？在汽车等领域的“抵制”对中日谁的影响大？如果未来需采取进一步经济制裁该从何处“发力”？本报今起推出专题报道，解析相关问题。 

Because of the Japanese government has announced"buy"Diaoyu islands and cause the dispute inevitably from the political field extends to the economic field.People spontaneous"Boycott Japanese goods"Action for china-japan economic and trade relationship drop into the freezing point.so,Sino-japanese economic dependence between how?In automobile and other areas of"boycott"In China and Japan who influence?If the future need to take further economic sanctions where"Hair force"?Our newspaper today launched the special report,Analytic related problems. 

　　中日经济 

Sino-japanese economic 

　　依存度调查① 

Investigation (1) the ratio of dependence on 

　　钓鱼岛争端愈演愈烈，民众自发抵制日货的运动也从汽车、电器、旅游业逐渐扩展到建筑、医药等越来越广的领域。那么，随着争端事件的升级，一旦民间的抵制日货运动上升到国家间的贸易制裁，是否会如一些人所说的“杀敌一千，自损八百”，中日两国经济两败俱伤？日前，也有日本媒体对中国的抵制日货表达了不屑，认为中国要抵制日货，先赶上日本的精密技术再说。那么，中国和日本的经济实力相较，究竟如何？如果一旦发生中日贸易战，到底谁怕谁？ 

Diaoyu islandtaiwan intensified,People spontaneous boycott Japanese goods movement from the car/electrical/Tourism expands gradually to the building/Medicine is more and more wider area.so,Along with the dispute upgrades,Once the folk boycott movement between countries rose to the trade sanctions,Whether it will as some people say"To develop the one thousand,Since the loss of eight hundred",The two countries' economies in which both sides had a?a,Also have Japanese media to China's boycott Japanese goods expressed disdain,Think for China to boycott Japanese goods,To catch up with Japan's precision technology say.so,China and Japan's economic strength compared to,How to?If once taking place sino-japanese trade war,Who afraid who? 

　　■外媒：中日经济战没有赢家，日方受损会更重 

S external medium:Sino-japanese economic warfare no winner,Japanese damaged will be more heavy 

　　对于中日间已经开始出现的经济对抗苗头，英国《金融时报》日前刊登文章认为，作为全球第二、第三大经济体，一向往来频繁的中国和日本，一旦贸易受到政治因素影响遇冷，发生经贸对峙，暂且不说谁输谁赢，正所谓“伤敌一千、自损八百”，最后这场“战役”将没有真正的胜利者。经济制裁是一把双刃剑，在制裁日本的同时，也会影响到中国经济的发展。但该文章也承认，但倘若真正衡量输赢，出口导向型经济的日本似乎损失将更为惨重。 

For the day has begun to appear in the economic against symptom,British[Financial times]Recently published articles think,As the world's second/The third largest economy,Always current frequent China and Japan,Once the trade has political factors in the cold,Happen economic confrontation,Leaving aside the who wins and who loses,so-called"Injury against one thousand/Since the loss of eight hundred",The last"campaign"There will be no real winner.Economic sanctions is a double-edged sword,At the same time in restrictions against Japan,Also will affect the development of China's economy.But the article also admitted,But if the real measure win or lose,Export-oriented economic Japan appears to be loss will be more heavy. 

　　日本国内经济研究机构也对此深有同感。日本大和综合研究所估算，中国抵制日货运动，对日本汽车和家电出口影响巨大。而如果与汽车相关的出口停止一个月，将造成3000亿日元的损失。SMBC日兴证券研究人员估算，在中国国内的日本企业倘若一个月销售额为零，日本全部产业的销售额将下降1.5万亿日元，影响之大可见一斑。 

The Japanese domestic economic research institutions also deeply feel the same way.Japan and comprehensive research institute estimated,Chinese boycott movement,For Japanese auto and home appliance export enormous influence.And if the export of related with the car to stop a month,Will cause the loss of 300 billion yen.SMBC Nikko securities researchers estimate,In China's domestic Japanese enterprise if a month sales is zero,Japan all industry sales will drop by 1.5 trillion Japanese yen,Of cause and effect is obvious. 

　　截止到2010年底，进军中国的日本企业已经达到2.3万家，超过美国跃居第一。虽然近期有不少日企计划向马来西亚等其他国家转移投资，但中国业务的收缩和战略转变，将使日企多年的付出血本无归。更何况失去中国巨大市场的损失是无法弥补和要命的。 

By the end of 2010,The China of Japanese enterprise has reached 2.3 of,More than the United States in the first.Although there has been a recent day look forward to many plans to Malaysia and other countries transfer investment,But China business contraction and strategic transformation,Will make day look forward to many years of pay lose everything.Besides losing China's huge market losses cannot be remedied and deadly. 

　　■金柏松： 对日经济制裁应专攻其弱点 

S JinBaiSong: On day economic sanctions should specialize in its weakness 

　　多年来一直从事日本经济研究的商务部国际贸易经济研究院研究员金柏松认为，学术界目前出现了一些担忧中日贸易战会两败俱伤的观点，这种观点太理论化，缺乏实战精神。他认为，若分析贸易战对中日两国的影响，首先要做两国的实力对比分析，分析清楚谁更依赖谁，谁有致命的弱点可供打击。 

Over the years have been engaged in Japan's economy research institute of the ministry of commerce international trade and economic researcher JinBaiSong think,Academic circles at present there have been some worry sino-japanese trade war will in which both sides had a point of view,This view is too theorized,Lack of actual combat spirit.He thinks,If a trade war between the two countries to analysis the influence of,The first thing to do a comparative analysis of the two countries strength,Analysis clear who is more dependent on who,Who has the fatal weakness for attack. 

　　金柏松表示，作为世界第二、第三大经济体，中国一旦启动经济制裁，日本必然会予以反击，而贸易战的双方都会有损失，这也是无疑的，任何事情都有代价。但关键是，谁付出的代价小，谁会受到致命打击。 

JinBaiSong said,As the world's second/The third largest economy,China once start economic sanctions,Japan must be countered,And on both sides of the trade war will have a loss,This is undoubtedly,Everything has a price.But the key is,Who pays the price small,Who will be affected by the fatal blow. 

　　“正如日媒所说，日本拥有世界上最好的芯片和精密仪器，这是它的长项，我们的弱项，但我们这方面不制裁它，只制裁它的弱项。日本独有的技术很少，我们可以转而购买韩国、美国、欧洲的芯片。而日本的芯片卖不动了，这才是它的大问题。”金柏松分析道，“可以这么说，我们的弱点有办法解决，日本的弱点是致命的。” 

"As day media said,Japan has the world's best chip and precision instruments,This is good at it,Our weaknesses,But we are not the sanctions against it,Only sanction its weaknesses.Japanese unique technology rarely,We can turn to buy South Korea/The United States/European chip.And Japan's chip sell did not move,This is the big problem."JinBaiSong analysis way,"Can say so,Our weakness have method to solve,Japan's weakness is fatal." 

　　■中日相比 日本对中国贸易依存度更高 

S compared to the Japan's trade dependence to higher 

　　很多经济和贸易界人士在分析对比中日经济的相互依存度后发现，如果中国对日本实施经济制裁，日本将损失惨重，中国的损失相对较小。首先，日本在中国整体贸易中仅占9%，而中国是日本的最大贸易国，占其贸易总额的22%。同时日本经过对韩国、台湾、香港等市场出口然后再出口到中国，即迂回出口估计约占日本出口总额10%。两项相加日本对中国市场依赖程度高达30%以上。 

A lot of economic and trade personage in the comparative analysis of the sino-japanese economic growing interdependence found after,If the Chinese to Japanese economic sanctions,Japan will suffer great losses,China's loss is relatively small.First of all,Japan in China's overall trade accounted for only 9%,China is Japan's largest trading nation,Its trade accounts for 22% of the total.At the same time Japan after for South Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong market export and then export to China,Namely detour export estimate accounts for about 10% of the total value of exports to Japan.Two additive from Japan to China market depend on the degree is as high as 30% above. 

　　中国海关数据显示，2012年前8个月，中国对日贸易逆差314亿美元。而此前2012年1至5月份，中国对全球顺差是229亿美元，而对日本一国的逆差就达到223亿美元。而多年来，日本对华是贸易顺差，中国对日是贸易逆差，因此日本经济对中国的依赖度，要高于中国对日经济的依赖度。 

Chinese customs data display,Eight months of 2012 years ago,China's trade deficit with Japan 31.4 billion dollars.And after 2012 years 1 to 5 months,China's global surplus is $22.9 billion,And a country's deficit to Japan up to $22.3 billion.And for many years,Japan is China trade surplus,China's day is a trade deficit,Thus Japan's economy to China's dependency,To be higher than China's day economic dependency. 

　　■日本出现经济危机只差“最后一根稻草”？ 

S Japan appear economic crisis only difference"The last straw"? 

　　金柏松说，日本经济现在已经是摇摇欲坠，未发生经济危机已是奇迹，根本经不起中国对其再进行经济制裁。 

JinBaiSong said,Japan's economy is now topple,The economic crisis has not occurred is miracle,Fundamental can't afford to China to its further economic sanctions. 

　　“日本已经连续20年经济衰退，这么长时间的不振，根源是其出口导向型的经济结构。”他分析，纵观日本近60年来的经济发展史，日本的出口导向型经济过度依赖外部市场。以前是靠美国，美国一打压，让日元迅速升值，日本经济就一片惨烈。而近年来日本也曾试图改革，无奈日本的经济学家属于供应学派，依靠的是多储蓄、多制造、多投资、多出口的“四多原则”，除了建议政府投资公共设施以外并无新招，不懂如何刺激内需，造成日本经济变革迟迟不能推进。 

"Japan has 20 consecutive years of economic recession,For so long a time spot,Root is the export-oriented economic structure."He analysis,Throughout Japan nearly 60 years of economic development,Japan's export-oriented economy excessive dependence on external markets.Used to be on the United States,The United States a crackdown on,Let the Japanese yen appreciation of rapidly,The Japanese economy is a piece of horrifying.But in recent years Japan also tried to reform,But Japan's economists belong to supply school,Rely on is more savings/Many manufacturing/To invest more/Many export"More than four principles",In addition to suggest the government investment public facilities, and that there is no other new recruit,Don't know how to stimulate domestic demand,Cause Japan economic change can't advance. 

　　随着日本汽车、电子企业的竞争力下降，日本大企业的资金链正在吃紧。随着日本老龄化进程，政府社保支出压力加大，年轻人减少，个人储蓄率下降。这表明，日本巨额国债的购买力已经越来越弱，也就意味着，日本距离财政危机已越来越近。 

Along with the Japanese car/Electronic the competition ability of the business enterprise decline,Japan enterprise capital chain is tight.With the aging process,The government social security expenditure pressures are increasing,Young people reduce,Personal savings rate decline.This suggests that,Japan's huge national debt purchasing power has been more and more weak,Means that,Japan distance financial crisis already more and more nearly. 

　　“在这种情况下，中国巨大的市场对日本起着相当大的救助作用。而中国一旦发动对日经济制裁，将很有可能成为压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。更何况，这根稻草很重，而骆驼早已是空壳。” 

"In this case,China's huge market for Japan plays a considerable relief effect.China once to launch day economic sanctions,Will probably become overwhelming camel's the last straw.besides,The straw is very heavy,And the camel is already shell." 

　　“SMBC日兴证券研究人员估算，在中国国内的日本企业倘若一个月销售额为零，日本全部产业的销售额将下降1.5万亿日元。” 

"SMBC Nikko securities researchers estimate,In China's domestic Japanese enterprise if a month sales is zero,Japan all industry sales will drop by 1.5 trillion Japanese yen." 

　　“中国一旦发动对日经济制裁，将很有可能成为压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。更何况，这根稻草很重，而骆驼早已是空壳。” 

"China once to launch day economic sanctions,Will probably become overwhelming camel's the last straw.besides,The straw is very heavy,And the camel is already shell."