9月底欧洲市场大幅下挫，再次提醒我们欧债危机仍未结束。很多投资者将欧央行的直接货币交易（OutrightMonetaryTransactions,OMT）视为改变各方博弈格局关键的一步，但OMT的实施是有前提条件的，即需要相关国家先向欧洲救助基金正式寻求援助。目前来看，只要西班牙不提出援助申请，OMT就无法启动，欧债局势就与7月底德拉吉提出“不惜一切代价（whateverittakes）”时没什么本质改变。

By the end of September the European market tumbled,Once again remind us the debt crisis is not over yet.Many investors will be the ECB direct currency trading(OutrightMonetaryTransactions,OMT)As change parties game pattern key step,But the implementation of the OMT is a premise condition,That is to say, the relevant countries to Europe first aid fund formally seek aid.So far,As long as the Spanish does not put forward to aid application,OMT cannot start,The debt situation with the end of July Della auspicious put forward"At all costs(whateverittakes)"With much essential change.

　　不过，我们认为西班牙政府提出援助申请的概率仍高。首先，西班牙10年期国债收益率近期一度重上6%的水平，这可能反映了资本外流再次加速。没有欧央行的帮助，西班牙将无法弥补资本外流导致的资金缺口。其次，9月底西班牙政府提出了2013年财政预算案，其紧缩力度在某些领域甚至超过了欧盟方面的要求，这意味着西班牙在满足援助条件方面的难度不大。

but,We think that the Spanish government proposed aid application probability is still high.First of all,Spain the 10-year Treasury yield recent once back to the 6% level,This may reflect the capital outflow picking up again.Without the help of the ECB,Spain will be unable to make up for capital outflow in financing gap.secondly,By the end of September the Spanish government proposed the 2013 budget,Its efforts to squeeze in some areas even more than the European Union demands,This means that the Spanish in terms of aid to meet the difficulty is not great.

　　西班牙：私人资本持续流出，资金短缺将迫使西班牙寻求援助

Spain:Private capital continuous outflow,Shortage of capital will force Spain for aid

　　9月底一系列的事件再次搅动了欧洲金融市场。一方面西班牙爆发大规模反对财政紧缩的游行示威，另一方面越来越多的地方政府已经或者正要申请中央政府的救助。同时，9月自下而上的银行压力测试结果显示，西班牙银行的资金需求并未超过之前的估计，这又增加了西班牙是否会申请国际援助的不确定性（见专栏1）。周边国家国债收益率虽在8月及9月初回落，但随后又开始显著攀升。9月中至今，西班牙和意大利10年期国债收益率分别上升了近20和10个基点，至5.8%和5.1%的水平；期间，两国主要股指跌幅均接近5%。

By the end of September a series of events once again stirred the European financial market.On the one hand the Spanish of mass against the austerity of the demonstrations,On the other hand, more and more local governments have or was about to apply for the central government's rescue.At the same time,September bottom-up bank stress tests results show,A Spanish bank capital demand did not estimate of more than before,This adds Spain will apply for international aid uncertainty(See column 1).Neighboring countries although Treasury yield in August and early September back,But then began to rise significantly.Since mid-september,Spain and Italy the 10-year Treasury yield were up by nearly 20 and 10 basis points,To 5.8% and 5.1% level;period,The two countries are the major indexes fell nearly 5%.

　　高企的国债收益率反映私人资本持续流出西班牙。与银行资本外逃的逻辑相似，当投资者对一个国家失去信心，私人资本就会大量流出，导致国内资产价格大幅下跌。实际上，今年1-7月流出西班牙的私人资本总量超过2300亿欧元。大量的私人资本流出伴随着股市大跌和国债收益率的居高不下。私人资本流出导致的资金缺口由来自央行的资金流入填补了。这反映在西班牙TARGET2账户下的负债增加了2600多亿欧元。

High bond yields reflect private capital continuous outflow Spain.And bank capital flight the logic is the same,When investors lose confidence to a country,Private capital will be a large number of outflow,Lead to domestic asset price plummets.In fact,This year 1 - July outflow Spain's private capital total more than 230 billion euros.A large number of private capital outflow with the stock market crashes and high yields.Private capital outflows in financing gap from the central bank's capital inflows filled.This is reflected in the Spanish TARGET2 account of liabilities increased by 2600 more than euros.

　　如此大规模的资本流入，部分得益于欧央行的两轮长期再融资操作（LTRO）。去年12月到今年3月两轮LTRO期间，西班牙TARGET2负债增加了近1500亿欧元。

Such a large-scale capital inflow,Thanks in part to the ECB two wheel long-term refinancing operation(LTRO).Last December to march this year two wheel LTRO period,Spain TARGET2 liabilities increased almost 150 billion euros.

　　私人资本的流出主要是通过银行渠道。从国际收支平衡表的金融账户可以看到，西班牙私人资本的流出主要是通过银行渠道。除本国银行证券投资账户外，过去半年其他三项均出现明显的资金流出，这表现为：外国银行抛售西班牙国债（外国银行证券投资）、外国银行收缩对西班牙企业和居民的信贷（外国银行其他投资）及西班牙银行存款流失（本国银行其他投资）。本国银行的证券投资账户之所以有少量的资金流入，很可能是因为西班牙银行抛售外国债券，比如欧元区其他周边国家的国债。此外，西班牙私人资本的流出与国债存量的变化一致。从去年9月起，外国投资者就开始大量减持西班牙国债，目前较去年9月持有量已经减少近40%。

Private capital outflow is mainly through the bank channel.From the international balance of payment of financial account can see,The Spanish private capital outflow is mainly through the bank channel.In addition to domestic bank securities investment account outside,In the past half year three other all appear obvious outflows,For this performance:Foreign bank selling Spanish national debt(Foreign bank securities investment)/Foreign bank contraction to Spain enterprises and residents' credit(Foreign bank other investment)And the Spanish bank erosion(Their other investment Banks).Domestic bank securities investment account is a small amount of capital inflows,It is possible that a Spanish bank selling foreign bond,Such as the euro area other neighboring countries bonds.In addition,The Spanish private capital outflow and Treasury stock change consistent.From last September,Foreign investors began to a large number of minus the Spain national debt,There is last September holdings has a reduction of nearly 40%.

　　总的来讲，西班牙及其银行系统面临着严重的资本外逃，这使得西班牙政府除了寻求欧盟援助外几乎没有其他选择的余地。西班牙此前的资金缺口可以通过欧央行的资金弥补，但目前欧央行已经停止了旧的债券购买计划（SMP），银行可供抵押的优良资产也不多（这意味着银行无法再通过欧央行的公开市场操作获得大量流动性），同时欧央行也可以否决西班牙央行的紧急流动性援助（ELA），限制西班牙央行向本地银行提供贷款。目前西班牙10年期国债收益率再次逼近6%的高位，除非该国政府向欧盟提出援助申请，西班牙银行将难以再从央行获得大量流动性。目前欧盟方面多位官员都表示希望西班牙尽快申请国际援助，9月24日欧盟竞争事务专员Almunia公开表示“西班牙当局应该就援助申请尽快做出决定”，目前市场上“真正的风险是持续的不确定性”。

generally,Spain and the bank system is facing serious flight of capital,This makes the Spanish government in addition to seek outside the European Union aid almost no other option.Spain had financing gap can through the European central bank funds make up,But the European central bank has stopped the old bond purchase plan(SMP),The bank for the mortgage assets are not good(This means that the bank can't through the European central bank open market operation get a great deal of liquidity),At the same time the central bank also can veto the Spanish central bank liquidity of emergency aid(ELA),The central bank limited Spain to local Banks provide loans.At present the Spanish the 10-year Treasury yield high of 6% again approximation,Unless the government to the European Union aid application is put forward,A Spanish bank will be difficult to get a lot from the central bank liquidity.At present more than the European Union officials have expressed the hope that Spain apply for international aid as soon as possible,September 24th European Union competition affairs commissioner Almunia said publicly"The Spanish authorities should aid application decision as soon as possible",On the market at present"The real risk is continuing uncertainty".

　　救助的条件：严格的财政紧缩

Rescue conditions:Strict austerity

　　西班牙迟迟不寻求欧盟援助，其中一个原因是担心救助的条件过于苛刻。然而，从9月底西班牙政府公布的2013年财政预算来看，其紧缩力度基本与欧盟方面的要求一致。

Spain has not seek the European Union aid,One of the reasons is worried about rescue conditions too harsh.however,From the end of September Spain the release of the government's 2013 budget to see,The tightening strength with the European Union basic requirements consistent.

　　如欧盟委员会副主席OlliRehn指出的那样，其在某些领域的紧缩力度甚至超过了欧盟方面的要求。

Such as the eu commission vice chairman OlliRehn pointed out that,In some areas of the tight strength even more than the European Union demands.

　　根据2013年财政预算，西班牙将在2013年削减预算赤字400亿欧元，其中58%来自支出减少，42%来自收入增加。支出方面，西班牙政府将继续限制公共部门工资上涨，并将中央政府部门的支出（Ministries’expenditures）降低8.9%（39亿欧元）。不过，养老金支出将有所上升，政府利息支出也将大幅上升34%至386亿欧元。收入上，西班牙政府预计税收收入将从2012年的1678亿欧元上升至1741亿欧元，其中增值税预计从483亿欧元上升至547亿欧元，其余的措施包括设立彩票奖金税，停止抵押贷款退税和征收财产税等等。

According to the 2013 budget,Spain is in 2013 to cut the budget deficit 40 billion euros,58% of them from spending to reduce,42% from income increase.expenditure,The Spanish government will continue to limit public sector wage growth,And will the central government spending(Ministries’expenditures)Reduced by 8.9%(3.9 billion euros).but,Pension spending will be increased,The government interest expense will also rose 34% to 38.6 billion euros.income,The Spanish government is expected to tax revenue will be from 2012 euro rose to 174.1 billion euros,The value added tax is expected to rise to 48.3 billion euros from 54.7 billion euros,The rest of the measures including the establishment of lottery bonus,Stop mortgage tax rebates and the property tax, etc.

　　如果顺利实行，西班牙的财政情况可能已经符合援助计划设定的条件。欧盟委员会的“过度赤字程序”（ExcessiveDeficitProcedure）给财政赤字超标的成员国设定了改革的期限，其中西班牙政府需使财政赤字在2013年下降到GDP的4.5%，2014年下降到GDP的3%。西班牙政府预计，2013年预算案如期实施后，财政赤字将能够达到欧盟设立的目标。因此，若西班牙政府申请全面援助，该国理论上已经达到了财政紧缩方面的条件。

If the smooth implement,Spain's financial situation may have conform to the aid program set conditions.The European commission"Excessive deficit program"(ExcessiveDeficitProcedure)Give fiscal deficit overweight members set the reform period,The Spanish government need to make fiscal deficit in 2013 dropped to 4.5% of GDP,In 2014 dropped to 3% of GDP.The Spanish government expected,2013 years after the implementation of the budget as scheduled,The financial deficit will be able to achieve the established target.therefore,If the Spanish government application comprehensive aid,The country's theory has reached the austerity of conditions.

　　但是，最终达到财政赤字目标存在一定的风险。首先，财政预算案预计，2013年西班牙GDP仅小幅下跌0.5%，并于2014年恢复正增长。这样的预测可能过于乐观。其次，地方政府的抵制也将影响财政预算的实施。计划中，2012年西班牙自治区的赤字将降低到GDP的1.5%，并在2013年继续下降到GDP的0.7%。但是，地方财政紧缩困难重重，西班牙穆尔西亚省长曾表示，西班牙所有17个地区均难以完成今年的财政赤字目标。另外，西班牙地区自治传统浓厚，财政紧缩的要求可能会引起地方政府的抵制。

but,Finally achieve fiscal deficit target has certain risk.First of all,Budget is expected,In 2013 a Spanish GDP only small drop 0.5%,And in 2014 recovery positive growth.This forecast may be too optimistic.secondly,The local government resistance will also affect the implementation of the budget.plan,In 2012 a Spanish autonomous regions of the deficit will be reduced to 1.5% of GDP,And in 2013 continued to drop to 0.7% of GDP.but,Local fiscal tightening difficulties,The Spanish murcia governor has said,The Spanish all 17 areas are difficult to complete this year's fiscal deficit goal.In addition,The Spanish region autonomy traditional strong,Austerity requirements may cause a boycott of the local government.

　　9月底，在进一步财政独立的要求遭到拒绝后，加泰罗尼亚政府就宣布提前选举。如果中右民族主义联盟CiU获胜，加泰罗尼亚可能会进一步进行独立公投，这对西班牙局势来说将是雪上加霜。

By the end of September,In further financial independence after request was refused,The Catalan government announced early elections.If the centre-right nationalism CiU league win,The Catalan may further independent referendum,The situation in Spain would be add insult to injury.

　　附：专栏1 西班牙9月银行压力测试：资金缺口573亿欧元，符合预期

attached:Column 1 The Spanish September bank stress tests:Financing gap 57.3 billion euros,Conform to the expected

　　西班牙9月银行压力测试结果显示，风险情形下（2012-2014年GDP累计下跌6.5%，房价和地价分别累计下跌25%和60%，失业率到2014年升至27.2%等），西班牙银行系统的资金缺口为573亿欧元（税前）。在接受测试的14家银行中，有7家能够抵御风险情形的冲击，无需注资；有4家需要注资但测试之前就已经在政府管理之下，这4家银行的资金缺口为444亿欧元；其余3家银行资金缺口为120亿，这3家银行将在10月决定是否需要政府援助还是可以从私人部门筹资。正如此前预计，银行业的损失大部分来自与房地产相关的贷款（风险情形下超过50%）。

The Spanish September bank stress tests results show,Risk situation(2012-2014 total GDP fell by 6.5%,Housing price and land price accumulated fell 25% and 60% respectively,The unemployment rate rose to 27.2% by 2014),A Spanish bank system financing gap for 57.3 billion euros(pre-tax).In accepting the test and Banks,There are 7 home can withstand the impact of the risk situation,Without capital injection;Have four need capital injection but test before they have been under the government management,This four bank financing gap for 44.4 billion euros;Rest 3 Banks financing gap for 12 billion,The three Banks will be in 10 months deciding whether or not to government aid can still from the private sector financing.As expected,Banking losses from most real estate related loans(Risk situation of more than 50%).

　　此次压力测试结果对西班牙银行重组计划的实施至关重要。首先，9月的测试是一个自下而上的评估，即独立评估机构一个一个地审查了这14家银行的资产负债表，依据严格的标准测算出每家银行的损失和吸收损失的能力，这增加了评估结果的准确度。其次，此次评估结果与6月的测试结果基本一致。6月自上而下的压力测试结果显示，风险情形下西班牙银行系统资金缺口为510-620亿欧元，两次估计结果基本一致。第三，两次压力测试结果均表明西班牙银行系统的资金缺口小于1000亿欧元的援助计划上限，这将有助于银行重组计划的顺利实施

The pressure test results to a Spanish bank restructuring plan implementation is very important.First of all,September testing is a bottom-up evaluation,Independent appraisal institution is one examined the 14 Banks balance sheet,According to the strict standard work out every bank loss and absorption loss ability,This increases the accuracy of the evaluation results.secondly,The evaluation results and 6 months of test results are basically the same.June top-down pressure test results show,Risk situation a Spanish bank system financing gap for 510-62 billion euros,Two estimation results are basically the same.The third,Two pressure test results indicate that a Spanish bank system financing gap is less than 100 billion euros aid plan upper limit,This will help Banks smooth implementation of the restructuring plan