美国总统选战已进入最后两周的决战期，两名候选人纷纷对华表示强硬立场，共和党总统候选人罗姆尼还宣称，上任第1天就将宣布中国为汇率操纵国。 但据台湾“中央社”10月23日报道，美智库学者、前美国在台协会理事主席卜睿哲(Richard Bush)22日指出，中美两国爆发贸易战的可能性不大。

The President of the United States campaign has already entered the last two weeks of decisive battle period,Two candidates have said China tough stance,Republican presidential candidate mitt romney claimed,Day 1 office will be announced that China for currency manipulator. But according to Taiwan"Central news agency"On October 23 -,American think-tank academics/Before the American institute in Taiwan director of BuRuiZhe chairman(Richard bush)22 points out that,A trade war between the two countries broke out the possibility is not big.

　　报道说，卜睿哲在布鲁金斯研究所(Brookings Institution)网站指出，前总统克林顿曾在1993年威胁对华取消最惠国待遇，不过中方认为美国更需要中国，用经济手段“还以颜色”，克林顿“只得就范”。

Reports say,BuRuiZhe at the brookings institution(Brookings Institution)Web site said,Former President Clinton in 1993 China threat to cancel the most-favoured-nation treatment,But the Chinese say the United States more needs China,Use economic means"Also with color",Clinton"Had to submit".

　　报道指出，美国外交界大多认为，罗姆尼如果当选，将和此前多位美国总统一样，制裁中国只是拢络选民的竞选口号。卜睿哲表示，自己也持相同看法。

Reports say,The United States diplomatic circles generally think of,Mr Romney if elected,And more than previous as the President,Imposing sanctions on China just approach complex voters campaign slogan.BuRuiZhe said,Oneself also said the same.

　　卜睿哲说，罗姆尼说“如果”中国欺骗取巧才会还以制裁，事实上，人民币已逐渐升值。再者，即使罗姆尼要求财政部宣布中国为汇率操纵国，所有相关法律都要求美中进行协商。 同时，中方可能拒绝美国要求，美国总统在现行法律下，没有权力主动提高关税，国会才有最后决定权。商界在国会势力庞大，为维护利益，将游说国会反对提高关税制裁。另外，来自日本、韩国等以中国为生产基地的国家和地区，也可能会游游说美国会反对报复性关税措施。

BuRuiZhe said,Romney said"if"China will also cheat tricky to sanctions,In fact,The yuan has gradually rise.moreover,Even if Mr Romney requirements for the ministry of finance announced that China's currency manipulator,All relevant laws require the negotiations. At the same time,The Chinese may refuse the request,The President of the United States in the current law,No power active tariff increases,Congress to have the last word.The business community in congress large forces,In order to safeguard the interests,Will lobby congress against higher tariff sanctions.In addition,From Japan/South Korea to China for the production base of the countries and regions,May also be yu yu says the United States will against retaliation tariff measures.

　　卜睿哲从政治逻辑分析称，罗姆尼将会接受温和派政策建议，放弃选举承诺，但这不会是第一次。罗姆尼预计会和中国协商，先解决美中其它经济问题。

BuRuiZhe from political logic analysis says,Mr Romney will accept the moderate policy Suggestions,Election promise to give up,But this is not the first time.Mr Romney is expected to negotiate and China,To solve the other economic problems.