中国制造业正面临着外需萎缩、产能过剩、去工业化、空心化等一系列问题的困扰，这可能是10年来最寒冷的季节，对过去中国制造的模式进行反思，并寻找新的出路，正是时候。为此，本刊特刊发两篇文章，就中国制造所面临的外忧与内扰做一个大致的梳理。

The Chinese manufacturing industry are faced with shrinking external demand conspire/Excess capacity/To industrialization/KongXinHua and a series of problem,This may be 10 years the cold season,In the past China's manufacturing model for reflection,And find a new way out,It is the time.therefore,This special hair two articles,It made in China faces the sorrow and internal interference do a general comb.

　　产能过剩、成本高企、外需持续下滑，中国制造正身处10年来最寒冷的季节。

Excess capacity/Cost high/Overseas market demand continued to slide,Made in China are in 10 years the cold season.

　　7月和8月，原本是传统的出口旺季，出口却连续两个月低增长，9月数据虽冲高，但估计与企业赶在“最长黄金周”前交货“圣诞订单”不无关系。

July and August,Originally is the traditional export season,But export for two consecutive months low growth,September data is high impact,But estimation and enterprise drive in"Longest golden week"Delivery before"Christmas orders"Relationship is.

　　新一轮稳定外贸政策出台，9月12日，国务院常务会议出台8项政策措施，力图促进外贸稳定增长。一周后，政策进一步细化，9月18日，国务院办公厅公布了《关于促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见》，在做好出口退税和金融服务、提高贸易便利化水平、改善贸易环境、优化贸易结构等方面，共提出了16条具体意见。

A new round of stable foreign trade policies,On September 12,,The state council executive meeting of the 8 measures introduced,Tries to promote the steady growth of foreign trade.After a week,Policy further refinement,On September 18,,The general office of the state council announced[On promoting the steady growth of foreign trade some opinions],For export tax rebate and financial services/To improve the level of trade facilitation/Improve trade environment/Optimize trade structure, etc,A total of 16 concrete opinions put forward.

　　外部市场的萎缩，并非依靠单纯的政策工具所能化解，拿什么保外需？中国制造的转型之路怎么走？

External market atrophy,Not rely on the simple policy tools can resolve,Take what BaoWai need?The transformation of China's manufacturing the way?

　　旺季不旺

Is not busy season

　　“老鼠拖木掀—大头在后边”，中国一般下半年的外贸比上半年分量更重，尤其7~9月是出口的高峰期。这主要与欧美市场的消费习惯大有关系—圣诞节、感恩节和万圣节这三大节日都集中在第四季度，第四季度的日用品消费额通常占全年的70%。

"Mouse drag and wood lift - the wedge",China's foreign trade in the first half of the second half of the general than heavier weight,Especially 7 ~ 9 month is the peak of the export.This is mainly and the European and American market consumption habits of a relationship - Christmas/Thanksgiving Day and Halloween these three festival are concentrated in the fourth quarter,In the fourth quarter of daily necessities expenditure usually accounted for 70% of all the year round.

　　今年，或许将迎来一个冰冷的圣诞节，外贸在某些程度上甚至比2008年那场金融危机时还糟糕。在7~9月出口的高峰期，今年却有一些工厂开工率不足甚至无单可接，早早就让工人歇着。

This year,Perhaps will usher in a cold Christmas,Foreign trade in some extent, even more than the 2008 financial crisis is bad.In 7 ~ 9 month export peak,But this year some factory operating rate shortage or even no single may meet,Early let workers at roost.

　　“没订单会烦恼，有订单也烦恼。”深圳市华坤实业发展有限公司总经理谷武最近频繁往返于深圳与潮汕地区，为落实欧美客户圣诞节的订单生产，从事高档电子玩具出口业务的他正忙得焦头烂额。早些年，在深圳找玩具工厂下单轻而易举，而近一两年来，在深圳几乎已找不到玩具加工厂了。

"Don't order will worry,Have order also worry."Shenzhen HuaKun industrial development co., LTD., general manager GuWu recently frequent trip in shenzhen and chaoshan district,For the implementation of Europe and the United States customer Christmas orders production,Engaged in high-grade electronic toy export business he is busy scorched.In earlier years,Looking for toy factory in shenzhen easily order,In the recent two years,In shenzhen is almost can not find the toy factory.

　　“金融危机以来，订单碎片化，由大单变小单，加上深圳成本高企，玩具厂基本搬走了。留下一些小厂，平时不大愿意养人，只在旺季临时找些工人。担心这些厂交不了货，现在不得不跑远点。”谷武告诉记者，由于原材料价格有所下降，今年海外采购商将价格压低10%左右，但人工成本还是上涨的，利润进一步被压缩。

"Since the financial crisis,Order fragmentized,By large single smaller single,Add shenzhen high cost,Toy factory basic moved.Leave a small factory,At ordinary times the adoptee less willing to,In the season only temporary find some workers.Worry about the factory pay the cargo,Now had to run far point."GuWu told reporters,Since the prices of the raw materials declined,Overseas buyers this year will be down 10%,But the cost of labor or rising,Profit is further compression.

　　中国海关总署统计的数据，也可以管窥到今年西方消费不容乐观。7月份，中国出口比去年同期仅仅增长了1%。1~7月7.1%的进出口额增速距离全年10%的增长目标尚有差距。而8月情况也没有好转，中国进出口总值同比仅仅增长了0.2%，其中出口同比增长了2.7%，进口下降了2.6%。9月中国出口规模意外冲高，出口1863.5亿美元，较去年同期（同比）增长9.9%，单月出口规模创历史新高。

China's general administration of customs statistical data,Also this year ago western consumption is not optimistic.In July,China's exports than the same period last year increased by only 1%.1 ~ 7 month 7.1% of the growth in exports from the 10% growth target has gap.But August situation is no better,China import and export value year-on-year increase by only 0.2%,The export growth of 2.7% year-on-year,Imports fell 2.6%.September, China export scale accident impact high,Export $186.35 billion,Than the same period last year(year-on-year)Growth of 9.9%,The export scale month a record.

　　不过，有企业认为，这在一定程度上与赶在“最长黄金周”之前交货有关，随着国际贸易摩擦增多以及人民币升值压力加大，中国外贸依然会遇到比较大的困难。

but,The enterprise thinks,This, to a certain extent, and drive in"Longest golden week"Delivery before the,With the increasing international trade friction and the appreciation of the renminbi pressure increasing,China's foreign trade still will encounter more difficult.

　　当前，欧美市场需求依旧疲软，而欧美日也都在积极扩大出口，重振制造业，越南、印度等亚洲国家也在蚕食着中国制造的订单，全球贸易竞争空前激烈。

The current,Europe and the United States market demand is still weak,And Europe, the U.S. and Japan are also actively expand exports,Pistol manufacturing,Vietnam/India, and other Asian countries are shrinking the order of the made in China,Global trade unprecedented fierce competition.

　　竞争力减弱？

Competitiveness weakening?

　　上世纪80年代中末期，在东莞一个工人月薪只有100多元，而且招工容易，出口一双4美元的女鞋可赚2美元左右，利润率约100%，而今天一双鞋出口价是二三十美元，但工人月薪已提升到两三千元，企业连1%的利润率都难获得。

In the 1980 s ZhongMoQi,In the dongguan a worker only 100 yuan a month,And to hire,Export $4 a pair of women's shoes can earn about $2,About 100% profit margin,But today a pair of shoes export price is $20,But workers salary have ascended to 23000 yuan,Enterprise even 1% of the profit margins are difficult to obtain.

　　一边是国际市场疲软，一边是中国制造成本不断攀升，双面夹攻，近年来全球供应链在不断调整中。继2009年耐克关闭在中国唯一一家鞋类生产工厂—太仓工厂后，另一体育用品巨头阿迪达斯今年也准备关闭在华唯一自有工厂。此外，阿迪达斯还在华终止了与敏恒实业有限公司等多家供应商的合作合同。

One side is the international market weakness,One side is China's manufacturing cost increasing,Double attack from both,In recent years the global supply chain in the constant adjustment.Since the 2009 Nike closed in China only a footwear production factory - taicang after factory,Another sports goods giant adidas this year also ready to shut down the factory in China has its own.In addition,Adidas also ended in China with sensitive constant industrial co., LTD., a number of other suppliers of a cooperation contract.

　　“我们的客户在不断地要求我们到东南亚设厂，就像当年强烈要求我们到中国大陆设厂一样。”广州创信鞋业董事长吴振昌坦言，生产成本不断上涨已影响到其企业竞争力。他在1990年将台湾的工厂全部迁移到广州，因有耐克、ELLE等知名品牌客户力撑，一度发展到近2万名员工、年出口额超1亿美元的规模。但由于种种原因，工人人数一减再减，目前维持在5000人左右。“我们不缺资金，订单也还是有，问题是有些订单不赚钱，何苦去接呢？”

"Our customers are constantly requires us to southeast Asia factories,Just as did urge us to mainland China as factories."Guangzhou letter and shoe the chairman WuZhenChang said,The cost of production has been rising affect its enterprise competitiveness.In 1990 he will Taiwan factory all moved to guangzhou,For a Nike/ELLE, and other well-known brand customers force brace,Once development to nearly 20000 employees/Exports over the scale of 100 million dollars.But for a variety of reasons,Workers number one minus any reduction,At present to maintain at about 5000."We do not lack of funds,Order still have,The problem is some order not to make money,, why to meet??"

　　经常跑到东南亚考察的他，发现珠三角与东南亚国家的劳动力成本差距越拉越大。前几年相差50~100美元，现在扩大到200美元以上，假如一个1万人的工厂，一个月仅劳动力成本就多支出200万美元。目前，在越南雇一个工人，月薪大约是180美元，印度尼西亚大约是200~220美元，而广州则需要450美元左右。

Often run to southeast Asia the investigation of him,Found the pearl river delta and southeast Asia countries widening gap labor costs.A few years ago are 50 ~ 100 dollars,Now expanded to more than $200,If a 10000 factory,A month only labor cost is much spending $2 million.At present,In Vietnam to hire a worker,That is about 180 dollars a month,Indonesia is about $200 to $220,And guangzhou is in need of around $450.

　　“现在，广州部分运营成本甚至比台湾贵，例如台湾工业用电折合人民币约0.7元/度，而广州工业用电的价格比这要高。此外，日益增多的税费也压得企业喘不过气来，例如从2010年底起开始征收城市维护建设税和教育费附加，去年仅这两项就交了近500万元，而今年1~8月又差不多交了500万，企业基本没什么利润了。”吴振昌说，“假如没钱赚，企业肯定会搬走或改行，不少台商都在观望中，产业链一旦转移，要再想转回去很难。现在也回不去台湾了。”

"now,Guangzhou part of the operation cost even more than Taiwan your,For example, Taiwan industrial power amount to RMB 0.7 yuan/degree,And guangzhou industrial electricity price is higher than that of to high.In addition,Increasing taxes also pressure to enterprise out of breath,For example from the end of 2010 began to levy tax on city maintenance and construction and educational expenses to add,Only last year the two will pay nearly 5 million yuan,This year 1 ~ 8 month and almost made 5 million,Enterprise basic no profit."WuZhenChang said,"If have no money to make,Enterprise will move away or changed,Many Taiwanese businessmen in wait,Once the transfer of industry chain,Want to think hard to turn back.Now also are unable to go back to Taiwan."

　　比较优势逐渐丧失，是悬在劳动密集型企业头上的一把利剑。今年7月底，东莞勇荣橡胶厂正式结业解散，这是制鞋巨头—香港港台集团在内地的最后一家工厂。自金融危机至今，港台集团在东莞、深圳的6家工厂已陆续撤离完毕。近一两年来，东莞中大型企业如安加鞋业、飞利达鞋业、联运鞋业等公司已关闭或搬迁，麦斯鞋业、惠丰鞋业、永盛鞋业等多家鞋企在大范围缩小生产规模，而这些鞋厂曾经拥有过几千人甚至上万人。

Comparative advantage has gradually lost,Is hanging in the labor-intensive enterprise head a sword.By the end of July,The dongguan yong rong rubber factory closed formally dissolved,This is the shoe giant - Hong Kong and Taiwan in the mainland, the Hong Kong group at the end of a factory.Since the financial crisis so far,Hong Kong and Taiwan group in the dongguan/Shenzhen six factories have evacuated finished.Nearly two years,The dongguan large and medium enterprises such as anker shoes/FeiLiDa shoes/Through industry and other company has closed or moved,Tengying shoes/HuiFeng shoes/Ever put shoes, a number of other shoe enterprises in large range reduced the scale of production,And these shoes factory happened thousands or even tens of thousands of people.

　　不仅是劳动密集型产业，连电子产业的日子也不好过。深圳福来宝总经理蔡洁荣说：“今年劳动力成本依然在上涨，大约涨了15%。而现在外需不景气，订单减少，电子产品利润空间越来越有限，有新产品的企业还过得去，今年靠老产品的企业都很惨。”

Not only is labor-intensive industries,Even the electronic industry but also for the day.Shenzhen blessing to treasure CaiJieRong general manager said:"This year, labor cost is still on the rise,About rose by 15%.And now now recession,Order to reduce,Electronic products profit space is more and more limited,A new product enterprise will get by,This year on old products enterprises are very miserably."

　　有媒体报道称，商务部高层在会议上提到，从1~7月的数据来看，20个发达国家中，有16个国家市场上，中国商品的市场占有率出现微幅下降。就在2009年金融危机全面爆发期间，中国出口额虽然出现大幅下滑，但国际市场的份额却没有下降。

Media reports said,The ministry of commerce at the meeting top mentioned,From 1 ~ 7 month of data to see,20 in the developed countries,Has 16 national market,China commodity market share appears falling slightly.In 2009 financial crisis during the outbreak,China's exports although a substantial decline,But the international market share but not drop.

　　商务部研究院院长霍建国说，要警惕中国制造业因为成本压力竞争力逐渐削弱的现状。他说，当前中国出口企业负担重，包括原材料成本、税负以及投资信贷环境等多重因素，成本压力导致的出口企业竞争力减弱这一问题严重于外部需求疲弱的现状。

The ministry of commerce research institute President HuoJianGuo said,Be alert for Chinese manufacturing cost pressure gradually weaken the present situation of the competitiveness.He said,The current China's export enterprise a heavy burden,Including raw material cost/Tax and investment credit environment, such as multiple factors,Cost pressure lead to export enterprise competitiveness weakening the serious problem in the present situation of the weak external demand.

　　政府再出手

The government to make moves

　　全球经济持续低迷等诸多不利因素叠加影响，给外贸带来更大的挑战。中国政府终于出台促进外贸稳定增长的政策措施，9月18日公布《关于促进外贸稳定增长的若干意见》。

The global economy sustained downturn factors influence stack,Foreign trade to bring greater challenge.The Chinese government finally come to promote the steady growth of foreign trade policy measures,Released on September 18,[On promoting the steady growth of foreign trade some opinions].

　　随后，财政部、国家发展改革委联合印发了《关于取消和免收进出口环节有关行政事业性收费的通知》，明确自2012年10月1日起，取消海关监管手续费；自2012年10月1日起至2012年12月31日，对所有出入境货物、运输工具、集装箱及其他法定检验检疫物免收出入境检验检疫费。这可减轻外贸企业负担约35亿元。

then,The ministry of finance/The national development and reform commission jointly issued by the[About the cancellation, and will be exempted from import and export link relevant administrative fees notice],Since clear as of October 1, 2012,Cancellation of customs supervision charges;Since October 1, 2012 up to December 31, 2012,For all the goods entry and exit/transport/Container and other statutory inspection and quarantine objects from the entry and exit inspection and quarantine fee.This can reduce the foreign trade enterprise burden of about 3.5 billion yuan.

　　对此，不少外贸企业却不感到新鲜和兴奋，他们普遍认为，自金融危机以来，这些措施多次提及，但真正惠及企业的并不多，像贸易融资和出口信保等政策已提出多年，但对中小外贸企业落实具有难度。

this,Many foreign trade enterprise but do not feel fresh and exciting,They generally think,Since since the financial crisis,These measures mentioned many times,But the real benefit of the enterprise is not much,Like trade financing and export believe insurance policies have been put forward for many years,But for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprise implement with difficulty.

　　吴振昌说，政府出发点是好的，但往往没有对症下药，进出口检验检疫收费在企业开支中所占比例微乎其微，而像他这样的代工企业要享受到金融服务还是有很大难度的，至于出口退税进度，广州这几年来已提速，现在再提出对企业来说意义不大。

WuZhenChang said,The government starting point is good,But often did not suit the remedy to the case,Import and export inspection and quarantine fees in the enterprise spending as a proportion of the very little,And like him foundry enterprises should enjoy the financial services are very difficult,As for the export tax rebate progress,Guangzhou in the past few years has speed,Now put forward again to the enterprise meant little.

　　“其实，中国制造在国际市场的竞争力减弱，与企业负担重有最直接的关系。政府可考虑在税费上进行调整，例如在出口退税上，国际上大多国家和地区都是采取‘全征全退’，此外，员工社保费、城市维护建设税以及教育费附加等，不分行业统一征收，这困扰着劳动密集型产业。” 吴振昌称。

"In fact,Made in China in the international market competitiveness weakening,And the enterprise a heavy burden have the most direct relation.The government may be considered in tax adjustments,For example, in the export tax rebate,Most international countries and regions are taken‘Whole sign all back’,In addition,Staff club premium/Urban maintenance and construction tax and extra charges, etc,Don't branch line of uniform collection,This troubling labor-intensive industries." WuZhenChang says.

　　中国国际贸易学会常务理事、清华大学中美关系研究中心研究员周世俭认为，这次外贸政策的力度明显不够，对企业所关注的出口退税上调以及稳定汇率这两方面基本没涉及，全年外贸增速“保十”有难度。

The China association of international trade executive member of the council/Tsinghua university relations between China and the United States research center researchers ZhouShiJian think,The foreign trade policy dynamics obviously not enough,To the enterprise concerns raised the export tax rebate and a stable exchange rate these two aspects basic doesn't address,Annual growth of foreign trade"The ten"Has the difficulty.

　　周世俭还认为，目前汇率调整也有难度。原本今年上半年人民币兑美元已经贬值1个百分点，但由于美国推出QE3（第三次量化宽松政策），人民币再次面临升值的压力。10月12日，人民币最终以6.2672元兑1美元收盘，近19年来首次收盘突破6.27。与2005年启动汇改时的8.27相比，等同于企业每拿到1美元，就少换了2元人民币。

ZhouShiJian also believe that,At present exchange rate adjustment also have difficulty.Originally in the first half of this year the yuan against the dollar has depreciated by 1%,But because the United States QE3 launch(The third quantitative easing policy),Facing the pressure of RMB appreciation again.On October 12,,Finally by the RMB 6.2672 to the dollar closing,Nearly 19 years first closing breakthrough 6.27.And launched in 2005 by the change compared to 8.27,Equal to enterprise each get $1,Little changed 2 yuan.

　　蔡洁荣说：“目前企业的症状是2008年金融危机产生的后遗症，上一轮经济刺激政策，尽管暂时缓解了企业的痛苦，但造成通货膨胀以及人工大幅上涨，在一定程度上反而削弱了中国制造的竞争力。对政策期望值不高，政府只要不给企业压力即可。”

CaiJieRong said:"At present, the enterprise is the symptoms of 2008 financial crisis produce sequelae,Last round of economic stimulus policies,Although temporary easing the pain of the enterprise,But cause inflation and artificial rises considerably,To a certain extent, but weakened the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing.Expectations of the policy is not high,The government as long as don't give enterprise pressure can."

　　自我救治

Self treatment

　　“人口红利”逐渐丧失，这不断倒逼着中国制造企业换一种活法，或转移，或转型升级。

"Demographic dividend"losing,This DaoBi continuously the Chinese manufacturing enterprise in a play it,Or transfer,Or the transformation and upgrading of.

　　陆续有一些企业不再扮演为他人作嫁衣裳的角色。从事制鞋产业20多年的东莞华宏鞋业有限公司董事长郭小平，因珠三角的制造优势加速丧失，近年开始朝对产业链上游的设计研发延伸，并在西班牙注册自主品牌GOLDEN PARTY，完成从OEM（贴牌生产）到ODM（自主设计）再到OBM（自主品牌）的转型。

There are some enterprises have no longer play the role of making life easy for other clubs finish.Engaged in the shoemaking industry more than 20 years of the dongguan HuaHong shoes co., LTD., chairman of the board GuoXiaoPing,Because of the pearl river delta manufacturing advantages accelerating loss,In recent years, started down the industrial chain upstream design research and extension,And in Spain registered independent brand GOLDEN party,Completion from OEM(OEM)To ODM(Independent design)To OBM(Independent brand)transformation.

　　两年前，郭小平开始涉足内销，现打入了30家中高端百货商场。近期，他为融资而奔波。尽管手中持有海外客户开出的信用证，但银行业不愿意贷款，除非有地产物业等抵押，贸易融资这条路走不通。“今年受欧债危机影响，意大利等订单严重萎缩，即使有些订单，接了也是亏损。而内销的前期投入很大，已投入3000多万元，这还差点拖垮工厂，营销不确定因素太多，对资金要求也更高。但目前金融环境差，中小制造企业融资难的问题并没有得到解决。”郭小平叹气。

Two years ago,GuoXiaoPing began to set foot in sale in domestic market,We scored 30 home high-end department stores.recent,He is the financing.Although hands hold overseas customers open the l/c,But banking is not willing to loan,Unless there is a real estate property mortgage, etc,Trade financing this road impassability."This year is the debt crisis,Italy and other order serious atrophy,Even if some order,Received is loss.And the domestic investment is very big,Has invested more than 3000 yuan,This is almost dragged down the factory,Marketing uncertainty factors too much,To capital requirement is also higher.But the present financial environment difference,Small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises' financing difficult problem is not solved."GuoXiaoPing sigh.

　　为降低制造成本，郭小平一边收缩在东莞的生产规模，一边正在把部分生产线迁往贵州铜仁，在东莞工人月薪3500元，而在铜仁只要花1500元就可以，而且在铜仁劳务人员充足，原本只要招600多人，结果有6000多人来应聘。

In order to reduce the manufacturing cost,GuoXiaoPing side shrinkage in the dongguan production scale,One side is the part of the production line moved to guizhou tongren,In the dongguan workers 3500 yuan a month,And in tongren want to spend 1500 yuan, you can,And in tongren labor personnel enough,As long as more than 600 people had gathered,Results more than 6000 people to apply for.

　　此外，郭小平还是打算在内销这条路上坚持下去。鉴于资金压力，他放缓了开实体店的速度，同时，加大了网销的渠道，与天猫、京东商城等电商平台建立了合作关系。

In addition,GuoXiaoPing or going to in the domestic sale this road stick to it.In view of the fund pressure,He slowed open entity shop speed,At the same time,Increase the net pin channel,And day cat/Jingdong mall and electric business platform established a cooperative relationship.

　　内销是近年来外贸企业转型过程中的路径之一，但这并非容易。东莞琪胜鞋业有限公司董事长尹积琪拿着收购意大利“迪宝·阿治奥”品牌来拓展内销，整整花了8年，才把国内月销量从起初60双鞋子发展到上万双，实现扭亏为盈。

Sale in domestic market is in recent years foreign trade enterprise in the process of transformation of one of the path,But this is not easy.The dongguan jade - footwear co., LTD., chairman of the board YinJiQi took the acquisition of Italy"Dew-point o · to Mr"Brand to expand sale in domestic market,Spent eight years,To get home from the beginning on sales 60 shoes development to tens of thousands of double,Realize turn.

　　不过，更多代工企业因无法承受漫长的烧钱过程而对打造自主品牌止于行动。

but,More foundry enterprise unable to withstand long burn process and to make the independent brand check in action.

　　在调整过程中，也有部分外商选择外迁，东南亚地区是热门之地。目前，还出现一种小众化的转移模式——逆向转移。香港一贸易机构负责人告诉记者，少数在粤的港资企业回流，虽然香港制造的成本比内地高，但香港制造的品牌效应比内地好些，可以卖出更高的价格。

In the adjustment process,There are some foreign outsourcing choice,Southeast Asia is a hot land.At present,Also appeared a kind of special-interest transfer mode - reverse transfer.Hong Kong trade agency person in charge told reporters,A few in the guangdong hong kong-invested enterprises return,Although Hong Kong manufacturing cost than the mainland high,But made in Hong Kong brand effect better than the mainland,To sell higher prices.

　　不管是转移，还是升级转型，都已经说明了这个国家制造业依赖低成本竞争优势“出口包打天下”的时代，正在宣告远去。

No matter transfer,Or upgrade transformation,Have explained the country manufacturing depend on low cost competitive advantage"Export BaoDaTianXia"era,Are declared away.