连续两个月正增长后，8月14日，央行金融机构人民币信贷收支表显示，7月末中国外汇占款余额为人民币25.658万亿元，较6月末减少38.2亿元，再现负增长。

Two consecutive months after positive growth，On August 14,，The central bank financial organ renminbi credit balance sheet shows，By the end of July funding of China's foreign exchange balance of RMB 25.658 trillion，A decrease of 3.82 billion yuan at the end of June，Reappearance negative growth。

　　“不管是由于资金跨境流动，还是境内机构和个人持汇行为发生变化，主要原因还是人民币汇率预期在改变。”独立研究机构北京福盛德经济咨询有限公司（FOST）首席经济学家冯建林说。他曾任国家发改委国民经济综合司副处长。

“Whether the capital cross-border flow，Or domestic entities and individuals holding exchange behavior change，The main reason is the exchange rate for the renminbi is expected to change。”Independent research organization Beijing f featuring economic consulting co., LTD（FOST）Chief economist FengJianLin said。He served the national development and reform commission deputy director of the national economy ZongGeSi。

　　8月以来，人民币兑美元中间价显现疲软，14日中间价报6.3443，尽管上涨13个基点，但仍接近八个月以来低点。“主要原因是7月数据显示中国外贸和中国经济在进一步放缓。另外，可能让人民币略微贬值，以稳定出口。”冯建林说。

Since August，Among the yuan against the dollar price of a weak appeared，14 middle rate to 6.3443，Although the gains 13 basis points，But still close to eight months since lows。“The main reason is July data show that China's foreign trade and the Chinese economy in slow further。In addition，May let the yuan slightly devaluation，To stabilize the export。”FengJianLin said。

　　即期价较中间价跌幅缩窄

That is QiJia a middle rate decline constriction

　　去年四季度，外汇占款曾连续三个月负增长，为近十年来首见。今年一季度逆转，前三月外汇占款分别增加1409亿元、251亿元和1246亿元。4月外汇占款再现负增长605亿元，但5月、6月随即恢复正增长234亿元、490亿元。

Four quarter last year，Foreign exchange have funding of three consecutive months negative growth，For nearly 10 years to see first。In the first quarter of this year reversal，March before the funding of foreign exchange are an increase of 140.9 billion yuan、25.1 billion yuan and 124.6 billion yuan。April funding of foreign exchange reappearance negative growth is 60.5 billion yuan，But may、June immediately restore positive growth is 23.4 billion yuan、49 billion yuan。

　　值得注意的是，国家外管局公布的二季度国际收支平衡表初步数据显示，一季度转为顺差后，二季度资本和金融项目再次转为逆差（含净误差与遗漏）714亿美元。外汇局承认，上半年我国出现了一定程度的资本外流。

It is important to note that，The safe state announced second quarter preliminary data show the balance of payments，Quarter after to surplus，The second quarter capital and financial project again into deficit（Including net errors and omissions）71.4 billion dollars。Safe admit，In the first half of our country appeared a certain degree of capital outflow。

　　资本外流与人民币贬值恰如一枚硬币的两面。此前，尽管市场做多美元气氛浓厚，但中间价仍设定在较高水平。8月人民币兑美元中间价震荡下行，10日跌至6.3447，13日续跌至6.3456，连续两日创八个多月新低。截至8月14日，中间价当月贬值138个基点，跌幅0.2％。

Capital outflow and the depreciation of RMB as two sides of the same coin。after，Although more than $market atmosphere，But the middle price is still set in a higher level。August against the dollar middle rate shock descending，10 fell to 6.3447，13 renewal fall to 6.3456，For two days and eight months low。As of August 14,，The middle price that month depreciation 138 basis points，Fall 0.2%。

　　同时，银行间即期市场人民币兑美元成交价较中间价的跌幅也大为缩窄，14日成交价最低达6.3640，较中间价下跌197个基点，跌幅仅0.2％。而7月20日，人民币兑美元一度触及6.3743，与当日6.3112的中间价比跌幅近1％，为4月扩大人民币波幅以来首次触及“跌停”，之后几个交易日盘中最低汇价较中间价的跌幅亦接近1％。

At the same time，Inter-bank spot market against the dollar clinch a deal valence is intermediate price fall also greatly constriction，14 clinch a deal valence minimum of 6.3640，A middle rate fell 197 basis points，Only 0.2% decline。But on July 20,，The us dollar once reached 6.3743，And on that day the middle rate than 6.3112 dropped by almost 1%，For April expand the amplitude for the first time since the touch“Drop stop”，Several trading day after the dish is the lowest rate among the price decline is also close to 1%。

　　“中间价下行表明央行有意引导汇率更接近市场水平。”一外资行交易员称。

“The middle price descending shows that the central bank exchange rate to guide more close to the market level。”A foreign line traders say。

　　有效汇率维稳策略

Effective exchange rate d stable strategy

　　7月是传统出口旺季，但最新数据显示，中国7月出口同比仅增长1.0％，远低于上月的11.3％，是自2009年11月（除去农历新年）以来单月出口增速的最坏表现。

July is the traditional export season，But the latest data display，In July China's exports year-on-year growth of 1.0% only，Far below the 11.3% last month，Since November 2009（Remove the lunar New Year）Monthly performance since the worst export growth performance。

　　“二季度美元指数走强，很多货币的实际有效汇率明显贬值，但人民币却坚持不贬值。这虽然促进了经常项目趋于平衡，但给出口带来压力。”冯建林说。

“In the second quarter of the dollar index going strong，A lot of money of the actual effective exchange rate depreciation obviously，But the insistence of the RMB is not devalued。Though this often promoted the project tends to equilibrium，But to export pressure。”FengJianLin said。

　　这与去年下半年的情况不谋而合。他认为，今年央行汇率政策基调有所改变，人民币兑美元略有贬值，有效汇率则保持基本稳定。6月，人民币名义有效汇率指数和实际有效汇率指数分别为106.5和108.65，与2011年12月相比仅升值1.6％和0.5％。

The second half of last year and the situation happen to coincide。He thinks，This year the central bank exchange rate policy tone change，The us dollar devaluation slightly，Effective exchange rate is kept basically stable。June，RMB nominal effective exchange rate index and real effective exchange rate index were 106.5 and 108.65，And December 2011, only 1.6% and 0.5% compared with appreciation。

　　“欧债危机将继续发展，近两三个月美元仍将强势。中国稳出口的压力也较大。因此，人民币对美元可能出现阶段性贬值。不过，贬值幅度会相当有限，会在双向波动中逐步略有贬值。”冯表示。

“The debt crisis will continue to develop，Nearly two or three months dollars will still strong。China's steady export pressure is bigger also。therefore，The RMB against the us dollar possible devaluation of stage。but，Depreciation range will be quite limited，Will the two-way fluctuation in a step by step depreciation。”Feng said。