据报道，商务部最新预测中国今年对外贸易增长幅度预计在6%左右，低于国内生产总值的增长幅度，此前商务部部长陈德铭表示原定今年的进出口增长是10%左右，目前看来完成目标任务非常艰巨。

According to the report,The ministry of commerce the latest forecast this year China foreign trade growth is expected at around 6%,Less than GDP growth amplitude,After the ministry of commerce minister Chen deming said this year due to the import and export growth is around 10%,Now it seems very difficult task to achieve goals.

　　出口增长目标为什么会出现从10%到6%的回落？《天下财经》今晨智库观察，商务部前部长助理黄海就此作出解析。

Export growth target why will appear from 10% to 6% of the back?[The world financial]This morning think-tank observation,The ministry of commerce former assistant minister in yellow sea make analysis.

　　黄海：从今年以来10个多月的情况来看，全年的进出口总额大概在6%-7%之间，确实没有达到原初制定10%的目标。主要原因还是受世界经济不景气的影响，比如欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴，但是今年到目前为止中国和欧盟的进出口贸易是负增长，因为欧盟一直陷于经济危机，所以这对中国影响非常大。中国和日本的贸易额也出现了一定的影响，另外金砖四国一些发展中国家现在也受到一些不同程度的影响，这些大的贸易伙伴受到影响，对我们进出口贸易也有影响，这些因素加在一起全年恐怕只能达到6%-7%的比重。

Yellow sea:Since the start of the year for more than 10 months situation,The total import and export volume of about between 6% and 7%,Do not reach 10% of the original set target.The main reason is the influence of the world economy,Such as the European Union is China's largest trading partner,But so far this year China and the eu's import and export trade is a negative growth,Because the European Union has been in the economic crisis,So the Chinese influence is very large.China and Japan's trade also appeared certain effect,In addition bricks some developing countries now have also been some the influence of different level,These large trading partner affected,For our import and export trade may also be affected,These factors together throughout the year I'm afraid only 6% - 7% of the specific gravity.

　　一直以来出口和投资、消费共同构成拉动中国经济增长的三架马车，那么该如何看待出口放缓对中国经济增长的影响？

Has been exports and investment/Consumption pulling together constitute the growth of China's economy three frame carriage,So what about the slowdown in export to China's economic growth influence?

　　黄海：目前根据国家统计局公布的前三个季度的三架马车投资、消费和出口，对GDP增长率的比重来看出口是负增长，负拉动。就是不但没有促进GDP增长，反而是起了一个拉后腿的作用，所以这个对中国经济肯定是有影响的，中国经济近年来增速比较慢，这和出口有一定的关系，但是主要原因还是受世界经济环境的影响，我们预计中国整个贸易额占世界贸易的比重并不会减少，尽管进出口贸易增长率没有达到目标，但是中国的进出口贸易总额占世界贸易的总量比重应当还是可以和全年保持基本近似的水平，并没有受到什么影响

Yellow sea:At present according to the national bureau of statistics released the first three quarters of three frame carriage investment/Consumption and exports,For the proportion of GDP growth to export is negative growth,Negative pull.Is not only promote the GDP growth,It is a role since,So this to China's economy must be influential,In recent years China's economic growth is slow,This and export has a certain relationship,But the main reason is the influence of the environment by the world economy,We expect the whole trade of the world trade would not reduce the proportion,Although import and export trade growth rate did not reach the goal,But China's import and export volume accounts for the total amount of world trade proportion shall be can still and keep the basic approximate level,And little harm