2012年11月28日，“财经年会2013：预测与战略”在北京举行。商务部部长陈德铭答记者问时表示，对于2013年出口形势，初步的预测明年的国际贸易会略好于今年，然后下半年的情况会略好于年初开始的时候。

On November 28th, 2012,"Financial conference 2013:Prediction and strategic"Held in Beijing.The ministry of commerce minister Chen deming reporters said,In 2013 the export situation,Preliminary forecast next year's international trade will slightly better than this year,Then in the second half of the year will be slightly better than the beginning of time.

　　戴小京：谢谢陈部长的精采演讲，下面还有两个问题。第一个问题，希望陈部长预测一下2013年出口形势是否会好转，好转有可能体现在哪些行业？

Wear little Beijing:Thank Chen the minister's wonderful speech,There are two questions below.The first question,Hope Chen minister prediction for 2013 export situation will turn for the better,Better may reflect in what industry?

　　陈德铭：我们正在做这个预测，更精准的预测可能要再晚一点，等到今年全年贸易收关之后。初步的预测明年的国际贸易会略好于今年，然后下半年的情况会略好于年初开始的时候。但是还有很多的不确定性，比如我们很关心的一些大国的财政悬崖，一些国家联盟预算是不是能通过等等，我们也关心着大众原材料价格的波动，一方面是会不会价格积极的下降，另面一方面会不会在明年形势略微好一些以后，出现通胀的压力。

Chen deming:We are doing this prediction,More accurate predictions may be a little bit late again,Wait until the year after the close of trade.Preliminary forecast next year's international trade will slightly better than this year,Then in the second half of the year will be slightly better than the beginning of time.But there are a lot of uncertainty,For example we are very concerned about some of the country's financial cliff,Some countries union budget if I can through the and so on,We are also concerned about the mass raw material price fluctuations,On the one hand is the price drop will actively,The other surface on the one hand will in next year the situation slightly better later,Inflationary pressure.

　　因此我们的出发点和目光，除了在传统出口市场以外，我们将更多聚焦新兴的市场，聚焦那些发展比较快的、经济增长比较稳定、市场人口比较稳定的发展中国家。比如在南美洲经济体的发展和非洲一些国家的发展，更不要说我们周边其他中亚的关系等等，我们会特别的关注。

So our starting point and eye,In addition to the traditional export markets outside,We will be more focus on emerging market,Focusing on the development of faster/Economic growth is stable/Market population relatively stable developing countries.Such as the development of the economy in South America and Africa, the development of some countries,Not to mention we surrounding other central Asia relation, etc,We will special attention.

　　另外在大的结构和材料方面，如果说经济能复苏，那么大宗原材料应该有一些好的迹象给我们。

In the big structure and material,If the economic can recovery,So bulk raw materials should have some good sign to us.

　　戴小京：第二个问题财经杂志的记者提出的，中国企业对外投资越来越多，也碰到许多麻烦和问题，如何提高对外投资的成功率，陈部长对这个问题有什么看法，商务部将提供什么样的便利？

Wear little Beijing:The second problem financial magazine reporter proposed,Chinese enterprises more and more foreign investment,Also had many troubles and problems,How to improve the success rate of foreign investment,Minister Chen to this problem what view is there,The ministry of commerce will provide what kind of convenience?

　　陈德铭：我从两个角度试着回答这个问题。中国企业的对外投资是一种必然的增长的趋势，我们的国家有着近3万亿美元的储备，也为这种投资创造了条件。我们不能看着我们的手里的美元在QE3这种政策下面逐步的贬值，我们应该把它化解成实体经济，也为世界繁荣作贡献。

Chen deming:I'm from two Angle try to answer this question.Overseas investment by Chinese companies is a kind of inevitable trend of growth,Our country has nearly $3 trillion of reserves,This kind of investment is also create conditions.We can't look at our hand dollar in QE3 this policy gradually under the weak dollar,We should put it dissolve into the real economy,Also for the world's prosperity for contribution.

　　今年的对外投资估计会超过去年，会超过700多亿。明年我们与仍然会在今年基础上再保持增长，也许五年到十年的时间，从FDI角度中国对外投资和国际资本对中国的投资回答体趋比较平衡的状况。

This year's foreign investment last year is expected to surpass,More than 700 more than.Next year we will still be in with this basis to maintain growth,Maybe five to 10 years of time,From the Angle of FDI in China's foreign investment and international capital to China's investment answer body to tilt the balance in the situation.

　　我们企业对外的投资我所讲的数字都是金融以外非金融投资，主要是实体经济的投资，重点是在加工制造业方面。这些投资虽然遇到了一些麻烦，但是总体的情况是比较好的，也遇到了一些困难，一般的来讲我们的困难主要是对所在国的文化、法律缺乏了解，缺乏相应按照一个跨国公司要求的人才本地化的那种合作方法和人才的整合。

Our enterprise foreign investment what I say the Numbers are financial outside non-financial investment,Mainly entity economic investment,Focus is in the processing manufacture.These investment although met some trouble,But, the overall situation is good,Also met with some difficulties,General speaking to our difficulties is mainly to the host country culture/Laws lack of understanding,The lack of corresponding according to a multinational company talent requirements of the localization of that kind of cooperation method and the integration of talents.

　　所以我们把这种投资在指导方面，国家要求中国商务部加快指导，我们这几年已经利用我们驻外150多个经商机构，把各国的主要的情况，特别是他们的法律环境汇成英文的、中文的，还进一步想汇成其他文字的，在网上公开的，为中国企业免费的检索。

So we put this investment in guiding aspects,National requirements of the ministry of commerce of China to speed up the guidance,Over the years we have been using our overseas more than 150 business institutions,The countries the main situation,Especially their legal environment converge into English/Chinese,Further to converge to other words,In the online public,For Chinese enterprise free retrieval.

　　第二，我们驻外经商机构为大家服务，因为我们是纳税人支撑养活我们，我们应该为大家服务。现在有一些中小企业不太知道到一个国家去还有一个经商处可以从那儿了解到很多情况，事实上很多国家不仅有外交上的经商机构，还已经有了所在国的中国商会，这些商会会给你更具体的指导。

The second,Our overseas business institutions for all services,Because we are the taxpayer support to support us,We should serve for you.Now there are some small and medium-sized enterprise doesn't know to a country to have a JingShangChu can from there to know a lot of things,In fact many countries not only diplomatic business institutions,Still have the host country China chamber of commerce,The chamber of commerce will give you more specific guidance.

　　在国别上大体有一个区分，就是对于新兴国家和发展中国家的投资要注意什么，对外发达国家的投资要注意什么。稍微说困难一点、复杂一点是对发达国家和最发达国家的投资，因为他们安全的审核还不透明，而且有的可以追溯到三年前，你现在投了经营了一两年，他说你不符合我的安全条件，你就会遇到很多的麻烦，所以在这些地方我们会特别给我们的企业一个指导。

In the country in general have a distinguish,Is for the emerging countries and developing countries investment should pay attention to what,The investment of foreign developed countries to pay attention to.Speak a little a bit difficult/It is complicated to developed countries and most developed countries investment,Because they security audit is not transparent,And some can be traced back to three years ago,Now you threw operation for one or two years,He said you wouldn't meet my safety conditions,You will meet a lot of trouble,So in these places we will especially for our enterprise a guidance.

　　同时我们和各国，特别和发达国家谈双边或者驻边投资贸易保护协定，特别是谈BIT投资保护协定的时候，要求所在国把他们的安全政策能够更透明、更可操作。在方法上，我们也提请我们的企业注意，对于一个比较庞大的投资项目，不要轻易的就耗几十亿、上百亿美元去全部收购它的股份，这样你收购了以后，你对这个企业的文化的了解要很长的过程，比较好的方法和成功的案例，是你先入股跟它合作，合作到一定程度再扩大你的股份，变成控股甚至有必要的时候你还可以全部持有股份。

At the same time we and countries,Special and developed countries about bilateral or edge in investment and trade protection agreement,Especially about BIT when the investment protection agreement,The host country for their security policies can be more transparent/More workable.In the method,We also request our enterprise pay attention to,For a relatively large investment projects,Don't easily billions of consumption/Tens of billions of dollars to bid for all of its shares,So you after the acquisition,You are on the enterprise culture understanding to a long process,Better methods and successful cases,Are you first become a shareholder with it cooperation,Cooperation to a certain degree to expand your share,Become a holding even necessary you can also all shares.

　　因为我们的世界已经在全球化的深度的推进中间，全球产业的分工和全球的价值链已经基本形成，我们不可能完全打破这种价值链，我们要融合到这种价值链中去，共同的合作发展。所以在这样的情况下，成为一个走出去的公司，要成为一个国际的跨国公司，一定要有所在国本地化的思想和理念，我们要在这方面继续和我们的企业家们一起研究探讨，使未来几年我们的走出去成功率更高，我们也希望所在国能够有透明的、优惠的政策，吸引中国的投资。

Because our world has been in the depth of the globalization advancement of intermediate,Global industrial division of labor and global value chain has been formed basically,We can't completely break the value chain,We want to fusion to the value chain to,Common cooperation development.So in this case,Become a walk out of the company,To become an international multinational company,Must have the country localization of thoughts and ideas,We want to in this respect to continue and our entrepreneurs study together,Make the next few years our walk out higher success rate,We also hope that the host country to have the transparent/Preferential policies,To attract Chinese investment.