商务部部长陈德铭昨日表示，初步预测明年国际外贸形势会略好于今年，明年下半年又会略好于年初。

The ministry of commerce minister Chen deming said yesterday,A preliminary forecast next year international foreign trade situation will be slightly better than this year,The second half of next year and will be slightly better than at the beginning.

　　在今年稳中求进的基础上，明年中国经济应该能够为改革留出更大的空间，没必要把明年整个经济增长目标放在追求过高的速度上，应该把更多的精力放到经济增长的质量和效益上，放到结构调整和增长方式转变上。　——国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源

On the basis of WenZhongQiuJin this year,China's economy next year for reform should be able to set aside more space,No need to put the next year the economic growth target in the pursuit of high speed,Should focus more on the quality and efficiency of economic growth,放到结构调整和增长方式转变上.- the state council advisory office special researcher YaoJingYuan

　　商务部部长陈德铭昨日在参加《财经》年会时表示，初步预测明年国际外贸形势会略好于今年，明年下半年又会略好于年初。同时，他也再次确认了今年全年外贸增速可能低于10%的目标。

商务部部长陈德铭昨日在参加[financial]Said annual meeting,A preliminary forecast next year international foreign trade situation will be slightly better than this year,The second half of next year and will be slightly better than at the beginning.At the same time,He also reaffirmed the foreign trade growth this year may be less than 10% of the target.

　　外贸好转存不确定性

Foreign trade better save uncertainty

　　陈德铭在会上表示，明年国际贸易会略好于今年，但仍存在一定的不确定性。如“我们很关心的一些大国”（指美国）是否能安然度过“财政悬崖”，以及欧盟预算案会否通过等。此外，大宗商品价格走势、通胀是否抬头等也是影响明年外贸走势的重要因素。

Chen deming said at the meeting,International trade will next year is slightly better than this year,But there are still some uncertainty.if"We are very concerned about some of the country"(Refers to the United States)是否能安然度过"Financial cliff",And the European Union budget will be no through, etc.In addition,Commodity price trend/Inflation is looked up and so on is also the influence of foreign trade the important factor of next year trend.

　　根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，明年世界经济增长的速度仅为3.7%；世贸组织预测明年全球贸易的增长为4.5%，虽有增长但仍大幅低于危机前的水平。

According to the international monetary fund(IMF)prediction,Next year's world economic growth rate is only 3.7%;The world trade organization (wto) forecast next year global trade growth was 4.5%,虽有增长但仍大幅低于危机前的水平.

　　陈德铭称，世界经济要想早日走出危机，应该把加快推进贸易和投资的自由化和便利化，放到更加突出的位置。但有些WTO成员国说一套做一套，对世界经济的复苏形成了巨大的障碍。他重申，我国坚决反对各种形式的保护主义，坚持扩大开放。

Chen deming said,The world economy to early out of the crisis,Should accelerate the trade and investment liberalization and facilitation,放到更加突出的位置.But some WTO members say one thing and do another,To the world economic recovery formed a huge obstacle.He reiterated that,Our country firmly oppose all forms of protectionism,Adhere to the opening up.

　　他还表示，未来除了欧美等传统市场外，我国未来将更多聚焦新兴市场，如南美、非洲、亚洲等地；同时，如果明年经济能复苏，大宗商品出口方面可能有向好迹象。

He also said,The future in addition to Europe and the United States and other traditional outside market,China's future will be more focus on emerging market,if南美/Africa/亚洲等地;At the same time,If economic recovery next year can,The export commodities may have better off signs.

　　再次确认完成既定目标“有困难”

Again confirmed to complete the set target"Have difficulty"

　　陈德铭昨日再次表示，进出口全年增速可能低于预期目标；此前，他在“十八大”期间就曾称完成这一目标“非常困难”，目前已向国务院汇报了有关情况，重新确立的目标是“中国全年对外贸易量在全球总贸易量中占比不减少”。

Chen deming said again yesterday,Import and export growth throughout the year could be lower than that of the anticipated goal;after,he"Eighteen big"Period had said to accomplish this goal"Very difficult",At present already reporting to the state council about the situation,重新确立的目标是"China's foreign trade throughout the year in the global total trade volume of the than not reduce".

　　去年下半年以来，由于发达经济体失业率居高不下，新兴市场国家面临较大通胀压力，以及欧债危机阴霾不散，拖累全球外贸出现放缓迹象。

去年下半年以来,Due to the high rate of unemployment in the developed economies,Emerging market countries face bigger inflationary pressure,以及欧债危机阴霾不散,Drag slowing global trade appeared signs.

　　陈德铭援引数据显示，预计世界贸易量仅增长2.5%，比去年低2.5个百分点，远低于过去15年6%的年均增速。

Chen deming quoted data display,预计世界贸易量仅增长2.5%,A 2.5% lower than last year,远低于过去15年6%的年均增速.

　　在这种情况下，连续三年成为世界货物贸易第一大出口国的中国也难以独善其身。

In this case,连续三年成为世界货物贸易第一大出口国的中国也难以独善其身.

　　数据显示，今年前10个月，我国进出口总值为3.2万亿美元，同比增长6.3%，其中出口增长7.8%，远低于10%的目标。

Data display,First 10 months of this year,China import and export value is 3.2 trillion dollars,Year-on-year growth of 6.3%,其中出口增长7.8%,Far less than 10% of the target.

　　不过，由于我国此前出台了一系列促外贸增长举措，加之节日因素影响，最近两个月外贸出现回暖迹象。

but,Because our country previously issued a series of measures to promote foreign trade growth,Together with festival factors,The last two months foreign trade appear warmer signs.

　　中国企业“走出去”是必然趋势

Chinese enterprises"Go out"Is an inevitable trend

　　在谈到中国企业“走出去”时，陈德铭表示，中国企业对外投资是一种必然的增长的趋势，也许未来五年到十年后，中国对外投资和国际资本对中国的投资将趋于平衡。

Talking about Chinese enterprises"Go out"when,Chen deming said,Chinese enterprises foreign investment is a kind of inevitable trend of growth,也许未来五年到十年后,China's foreign investment and international capital to China's investment will tend to balance.

　　数据显示，今年1-10月，我国境内投资者共对全球126个国家和地区的3254家境外企业进行了直接投资，累计实现非金融类直接投资581.7亿美元，同比增长25.8%。而同期我国实际使用外资金额917.4亿美元，同比下降3.45%。

Data display,This year October 1 -,Investors were within the territory of China to the global 126 countries and regions of the 3254 family businesses on the direct investment,Realized total non-financial kind of direct investment of us $58.17 billion,同比增长25.8%.Over the same period, our country actual use of foreign investment of 91.74 billion us dollars,3.45% year-on-year drop.

　　陈德铭表示，我国企业对外投资重点在加工制造业，虽然有些企业在“走出去”的过程中遇到了一些麻烦和困难，但是总体的情况是比较好的。他还呼吁企业多向我国驻外经商机构及中国商会了解情况，在收购国外企业时可以采取先收购一部分股份的方式循序渐进，多了解当地的文化和企业理念，同时也希望所在国能够有透明的、优惠的政策，吸引中国的投资。

Chen deming said,Our country enterprise overseas investment focus on processing manufacturing,虽然有些企业在"Go out"In the process of met some trouble and difficulties,But, the overall situation is good.He also called on enterprise change our country overseas business organizations and Chinese chamber of commerce know the situation,In the acquisition of foreign enterprise can take first part purchase shares way step by step,More about the local culture and enterprise idea,At the same time也希望所在国能够有透明的/Preferential policies,吸引中国的投资.

　　■ 宏观分析

s Macroscopic analysis

　　“GDP增速7.5%已成定局”

"7.5% GDP growth has become a foregone conclusion"

　　在昨天的《财经》年会上，关于今年中国的经济走势也是各方讨论的焦点。

In yesterday's[financial]Annual meeting,This year on China's economic situation is also the focus of all parties to discuss.

　　陈德铭表示，今年GDP完成全年7.5%或以上的增长目标已成定局；而国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源表示，今年中国能在“稳增长”的同时也实现了“稳物价”，是来之不易的成就；明年中国经济应该能够为改革留出更大的空间。

Chen deming said,This year's GDP complete annual 7.5% or more growth target has become a foregone conclusion;And the state council advisory office special researcher YaoJingYuan said,This year China can be in"Steady growth"At the same time also realization"Stable prices",Is hard-won achievement;China's economy next year for reform should be able to set aside more space.

　　陈德铭称，面对严峻复杂的国际经济形势，中国政府加强和改善宏观调控，着力稳增长、调结构、抓改革、惠民生，取得了积极成效。前三季度，我国国内生产总值同比增长7.7%，完成全年7.5%或以上的增长目标已成定局。

Chen deming said,In the face of severe complex international economic situation,中国政府加强和改善宏观调控,Focus on steady growth/Adjustable structure/Catch reform/Born we,Achieved positive results.The first three quarters,我国国内生产总值同比增长7.7%,Complete annual 7.5% or more growth target has become a foregone conclusion.

　　国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源则表示，除了实现了两个“稳”，今年中国经济也存在两个问题。

The state council advisory office special researcher YaoJingYuan, said,除了实现了两个"stability",This year China economy also two problems.

　　首先，即使是实现了7.5%以上的增长目标，在经济增长质量和效益上还亟待提高，因为中国规模以上工业企业利润10月份才刚刚由负转正。

First of all,Even if is realized for more than 7.5% of the growth target,In the quality and efficiency of economic growth also be enhanced urgently,Because of China's industrial enterprises above designated size profit in October just from negative become a full member.

　　同时，增长方式和结构调整还没有实质性的大的根本性的进步。

At the same time,Growth mode and structure adjustment is not substantial big fundamental progress.

　　他建议，在今年稳中求进的基础上，明年中国经济应该能够为改革留出更大的空间，没必要把明年整个经济增长目标放在追求过高的速度上，应该把更多的精力放到经济增长的质量和效益上，放到结构调整和增长方式转变上。

He suggested that,On the basis of WenZhongQiuJin this year,China's economy next year for reform should be able to set aside more space,No need to put the next year the economic growth target in the pursuit of high speed,Should focus more on the quality and efficiency of economic growth,放到结构调整和增长方式转变上.

　　■ 货币政策

s Monetary policy

　　“明年的货币政策空间有限”

"Next year's monetary policy space is limited"

　　国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源昨日在“《财经》年会2013”上表示，中国经济最深层次的问题是结构问题，货币政策对结构问题解决的作用有限，所以还要靠财政政策。

The state council advisory office special researcher YaoJingYuan yesterday in"[financial]Conference 2013"上表示,China's economy of the deepest problems are structural problems,Monetary policy对结构问题解决的作用有限,So, you have to rely on fiscal policy.

　　对明年的货币政策姚景源仍主张继续保持稳健，但他认为“明年的货币政策空间有限”。姚景源提到，现在大家对货币政策期待值过高，各个地方政府都大搞投资，动不动几千亿，甚至上万亿这么干，对此他表示担忧。

对明年的Monetary policy姚景源仍主张继续保持stability健,But he thinks"Next year's monetary policy space is limited".姚景源提到,现在大家对Monetary policy期待值过高,各个地方政府都大搞投资,Often thousands of,甚至上万亿这么干,This he said concerns.

　　姚景源称，“这十年，我们广义货币数量增长6倍，国内生产总值才增长1.5倍，但是货币发行6倍，从1949年到现在，建国63年，到去年62年我们发放人民币贷款55万亿人民币，其中2008到2011这四年就28万亿，一半。”

YaoJingYuan says,"The ten years,Our broad money growth number six times,GDP growth to 1.5 times,But the currency issue 6 times,From 1949 to the present,In 63 the founding of the,到去年62年我们发放人民币贷款55万亿人民币,The 2008 to 2011 this four years he would be 28 trillion,half."

　　“应该不要把政策更多的放在货币政策里，更多还是放在财政政策里。”姚景源说。

"Should not the policy more on the monetary policy,More or on the fiscal policy."姚景源说.

　　姚景源认为，对于企业经营困难，最简单的解决办法就是减税，特别是中小企业，要解决融资难，贷款难的问题，快的方式就是减税，立刻见效。扩大消费也是这样，提高个人起征点。

YaoJingYuan think,对于企业经营困难,The most simple solution is to tax cuts,Especially small and medium-sized enterprise,To solve the financing difficulties,Loans difficult question,Quick way is tax cuts,Immediately effective.Expand consumption also is such,Improve the individual threshold.

　　不久之前，财政部财科所副所长白景明曾表示，“结构性减税政策目前已经是我国积极财政政策的重要组成部分，在推行结构性减税的同时推进税制的完善，让税收出现结构性变化，其对经济的杠杆作用会更加凸显，也会更有效地促进经济的发展。”

Not long ago,The ministry of finance wealth branch deputy director BaiJingMing has said,"Structural tax reduction policy at present in our country is already active fiscal policy is an important part of,In the implementation of structural tax at the same time, promote the improvement of the tax system,Let tax appear structural changes,The economic leverage will become more prominent,Also will be more effectively promote the development of economy."

　　姚景源昨天在年会上进一步表示，我们在财政政策上做大文章才能推动改革，才能推动更深层次的改革。希望明年更多地研究财政政策，更多地让财政政策发挥更积极的作用，这一点非常重要。（李媛）

YaoJingYuan yesterday at the annual meeting said further,We in the financial policy to do big articles to promote reform,才能推动更深层次的改革.Hope next year to study more fiscal policy,更多地让财政政策发挥更积极的作用,This is very important.(LiYuan)

　　【名词解释】

[Nouns explain]

　　财政悬崖

Financial cliff

　　即巨大的财政赤字，增税与减支这两项政策叠加在一起，使政府财政状况面临崩溃。欧洲五国和美国都曾出现过财政悬崖。(李媛)

That huge financial deficit,In order to raise taxes and the two policy added together,Make the government finances collapsing.欧洲五国和美国都曾出现过Financial cliff.(LiYuan)