王 王

The king The king

　　贸易顺差的大幅度提高，增加了贸易摩擦。随着在国际贸易地位的上升，我国成为连续10多年被全球发起反倾销调查最多的国家之一。最新的一起是2012年10月18日，美国商务部宣布对来自我国的硬木及装饰胶合板产品发起反倾销反补贴调查。

The trade surplus increased significantly,Increased trade friction.With the rising status in international trade,Our country becomes continuous 10 years by global anti-dumping investigations into one of the most populous country.The latest together is on October 18, 2012,The us Commerce Department announced in our country from the hardwood and fancy plywood products anti-dumping countervailing investigation.

　　根据西方经济学的主流观点，国际收支平衡与物价稳定、充分就业、经济持续增长共同构成宏观经济的四大目标。透过近年来国际收支平衡表显示，我国经常项目持续出现大额顺差，致使我国整个呈现贸易顺差。平抑贸易摩擦措施不仅在政府层面，还在企业自身，以及通过货币及财政政策，才能缓解经常项目顺差压力。

According to the mainstream of western economics view,The balance of international payments and price stability/Full employment/Sustained economic growth together constitute the macro economic four goals.Through in recent years the international balance of payment display,Our country often project continues to occur large surplus,The our country the present trade surplus.Stabilize trade friction measures not only in government level,Also in the enterprise itself,And through the monetary and fiscal policy,To ease the current account surplus pressure.

　　实现国际收支平衡和经常项目顺差收窄成为我国贸易主要目标。尤其在今年连续七个月顺差有待调整，适当出现逆差月份，以平抑贸易摩擦。当贸易长期出现顺差时，适当人为做出调整，采取以期达到调剂贸易平衡目的的积极措施成为必要条件。但除了国家对逆差国家和地区加大政府采购外，还应注重多策并举：

To realize the balance of international payments and current-account surplus narrow become China's trade main goal.Especially in a row this year seven months surplus needs to be adjusted,Appropriate appear in deficit,In order to curb trade friction.When trade long-term appear surplus,Appropriate artificial make adjustments,Take in order to achieve the purpose of a trade balance positive measures become necessary condition.But in addition to the state deficit countries and regions increase the government procurement,Should also pay attention to strategy and more:

　　一、优化贸易伙伴结构。加强国际交流合作、对话以及贸易磋商，积极应对贸易摩擦，营造有利于外贸发展的良好国际环境，重点优化主要贸易伙伴的结构。

a/Optimize trade partner structure.Strengthen international exchanges and cooperation/Dialogue and trade negotiations,To actively respond to the trade friction,Build is beneficial to the development of foreign trade of good international environment,Focus on optimizing the structure of the main trading partners.

　　二、提高贸易产品科技质量。引导由劳动密集型产品迅速向技术性、资本密集型产品转变。同时，优化出口外贸产品结构，减少资源型、高耗能、高污染商品的出口。

two/Improve trade products science and technology quality.Guide the labor-intensive products rapidly to technical/Capital intensive products transformation.At the same time,Optimizing export trade product structure,Reduce resources/will/High pollution to the exports of the commodities.

　　三、将成本列为进口第一考量因素。积极进口国外成本优势产品和高新技术设备。

three/Will cost as import first considerations.Actively import foreign cost advantage products and high-tech equipment.

　　四、提高利用外资质量。通过结构性改革，减少劳动力市场，并且在降低产品市场的低效率形成气候环境下，严格控制技术档次低，土地资源占用多，高耗能高污染的外资项目，提高利用外资的质量和效益。

four/To improve the quality of the use of foreign capital.Through the structural reform,Reduce the Labour market,And in reducing the product market low efficiency form climate environment,Strict control technology of low grade,Land resources occupied much,High pollution in high foreign project,To improve the quality and efficiency of the utilization of foreign capital.

　　五、扩大内需。通过扩大内需，特别是依托消费需求推动经济增长，降低经济增长对出口的依赖，消除巨额贸易顺差带来的影响。

five/To expand domestic demand.Through expanding domestic demand,Especially rely on consumer demand to promote economic growth,Reduce reliance on exports to drive growth,To eliminate the effects of a large trade surplus.

　　六、加速制造业由东向西转移。国内制造业成本上升，多数出口企业负担较重，产业转移必须提上日程，尤其是西部地区，凭借自身优势，可以获得更多机会。西部地区完全有能力承接东部地区产业压力，从而增强出口竞争力。此外，凭借自身环境，西部应放眼于东部企业总部基地建设，充分释放东部企业原地制造业压力。

six/Accelerating manufacturing from the east to the west transfer.The rise in the cost of domestic manufacturing industry,Most of the export enterprise burden is heavy,Industrial transfer must be put on the agenda,Especially in the west,With our own advantages,Can get more opportunities.The western region has the ability to undertake the eastern region industry pressure,Thus improving export competitiveness.In addition,Relying on its own environment,The west should be looking in the eastern enterprise headquarters base construction,Released in full the eastern enterprise in situ manufacturing pressure.

　　七、货币及财政政策综合施展缓解经常项目顺差压力。（1）提高贷款利率。提高贷款利率会增加出口企业的成本从而会引起出口增长放慢，降低人民币来自经常项目盈余的升值压力。（2）调整过高汇率避免影响出口。建议增强人民币兑美元汇率的弹性，逐步改变人民币盯住美元的单一联系汇率机制，改为盯住一揽子货币的联系机制，从而避免人民币跟随美元出现周期性波动，影响国内宏观经济。（3）合理利用外汇储备。一是可以利用大量外汇储备进口石油、粮食、矿砂和技术设备等我国紧缺资源和急需技术，缓解大量外汇储备所累积的人民币升值压力，提高企业生产能力，最终收窄经常项目顺差。二是购买国内紧缺商品，平衡物价，利用人民币升值减轻部分行业、部分产品物价上升过快的压力，抵消部分通货膨胀。三是鼓励国内优秀企业向外直接投资,提高外汇使用效率。三种措施的结果实质是降低了外汇储备，从而对收窄经常项目顺差起到积极作用。

seven/Monetary and fiscal policy comprehensive display ease current-account surplus pressure.(1)Improve loan interest rate.Improve the loan interest rate will increase the cost of export enterprise and can cause slow down export growth,Reduce the renminbi from current-account surplus appreciation pressure.(2)Adjust the exchange rate to avoid high influence export.Suggest increase the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar,Gradually change the renminbi peg single linked exchange rate mechanism,To gaze at package monetary contact mechanism,To avoid RMB $follow appear cyclical fluctuation,Affect domestic macro economy.(3)Reasonable utilization of foreign exchange reserves.One is can make use of large foreign exchange reserves import oil/food/Ore and technical equipment in our country, such as shortage of resources and are in urgent need of technology,Ease the large foreign exchange reserves are cumulative appreciation of the RMB pressure,To improve the enterprise production capacity,Final narrow current-account surplus.The second is to buy domestic commodities in short supply,Equilibrium price,Use of appreciation of the RMB reduce part industry/Some products prices rise too fast pressure,Offset part of the inflation.Three is to encourage domestic excellent enterprise outward direct investment,Improve the efficient use of foreign exchange.Three measures results essence is to reduce the foreign exchange reserves,So as to narrow current-account surplus play a positive role.

　　我们应当自知，我国经常项目顺差导致国际收支不平衡，主要根源在于产业结构不适应世界市场变化而导致国际竞争力趋弱。经常项目顺差收窄，更有利企业长期可持续发展，有助于企业基本面的利好。这些企业作为投资标的，将驱动投资者秉持价值投资理念，长期持有，维护资本市场的稳定。

We should know,Our country current account surplus leads to the international balance of payment,Main root lies in the industrial structure is to adapt the market change and lead to international competitiveness weakness.the.A current account surplus narrow,More advantageous enterprise long-term sustainable development,Help enterprise good fundamentals.These enterprises as investment target,Will drive investors grasps the value investment idea,Long-term holding,Maintain the stability of the capital market.

　　（作者系英国赫尔大学货币银行与金融专业硕士生） 

(The author is British university of hull monetary banking and financial professional master)