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中国11月贸易帐顺差规模料将略微缩小--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-12-06

  中国海关总署定于下周一(12月10日)公布11月进出口数据。

China's general administration of customs is scheduled for next Monday(On December 10)Announced on November import and export data.

  外媒周四(12月6日)公布的调查结果显示,27位机构分析师平均预计,中国11月贸易帐料将录得顺差257亿美元,出口年率料将上升9.0%,进口年率料将上升2.0%。

Outside media on Thursday(On December 6,)According to the results of the survey released,27 analysts average expected,China's November trade account material will record surplus of $25.7 billion,Export annual rate material will rise 9.0%,Imported material will rise 2.0% annual rate.

  已经公布的数据显示,中国10月贸易帐录得顺差319.9亿美元,增幅大超预期。其中,出口年率增长11.6%,进口年率增长2.4%。

Published data show,China's October trade account record surplus of $31.99 billion,Big growth than expected.the,Export growth of 11.6% annual rate,Import growth of 2.4% annual rate.

  调查认为,中国11月进出口年率增幅料将略微放缓,部分因2011年基数较高,而发达经济体复苏步伐迟缓亦影响中国出口前景。

Survey think,China's November import and export an annual rate of material will be slightly slow,Part for 2011 higher base,And developed economies slow pace of recovery also affect China's export prospects.

  分析师们指出,受中国稳增长投资加速,国内总需求扩张的影响,未来数月进口增速将延续进一步回升态势;在国内稳增长投资需求和企业补库存带动下,未来可能会出现进口增速大于出口增速的局面。

Analysts pointed out that,Under China's steady growth investment accelerated,The influence of the domestic aggregate demand expansion,The coming months import growth will continue to rebound further situation;In the domestic firm growth investment demand and enterprise complement driven by inventory,The future may appear imports more than export growth situation.

  交通银行宏观报告指出,投资需求复苏将推动进口增速反弹,从库存变动周期看,11月份微观企业的库存调整也将陆续进入再库存周期,从而推动进口需求反弹。

Bank of communications macro report says,Investment demand recovery will boost import growth rebound,From the stock change cycle to see,November micro enterprise inventory adjustment will also have entered again inventory cycle,In order to boost demand for imports rebound.

  交通银行首席经济学家连平在报告中认为,未来人民币依然有一定升值压力,但考虑到前期升值可能有政策引导的短期因素,目前香港远期人民币对美元汇率仍处在升值区间,且大幅升值对出口不利,预计12月人民币对美元汇率呈波动震荡的运行格局,年底或略有升值。

Bank of communications chief economist even flat in the report that,The future still have certain appreciation pressure,But considering the appreciation may have policy guidance short-term factors,At present Hong Kong forward RMB exchange rate for the dollar is still in appreciation of the interval,And big revaluation on export adverse,December is expected to renminbi (RMB) against the us dollar in the operation of the shock wave pattern,The end of the year or a little appreciation.



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