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中日韩自由贸易区渐行渐近--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-12-06
后危机时代,寻找新的经济增长点成为迫切需要,中国是日本和韩国的最大贸易伙伴,建立自由贸易区能够提升中国GDP2.9%,日本和韩国分别能够提高0.5%和3.1%
Crisis after age,Looking for a new economic growth point become urgent need,China is Japan and South Korea's biggest trading partner,The establishment of a free trade area to enhance the GDP2.9 %,Japan and South Korea can be increased by 0.5% and 3.1% respectively
自中日韩自由贸易区(FTA)设想在2002年中日韩三国领导人峰会上提出以来,这一发酵已久的话题再次引起世界关注。11月20日,在柬埔寨首都金边召开的中日韩部长级会议上,中国商务部部长陈德铭、日本经济产业大臣枝野幸男和韩国外交通商部通商交涉本部长朴泰镐决定正式启动中日韩自由贸易区谈判,首轮谈判将在2013年年初开始。
Since the China, Japan and South Korea free trade area(FTA)Imagine in 2002 years, South Korea and Japan summit since it was put forward,The fermentation has long topic again attracted worldwide attention.November twenty days,In Cambodia's capital, phnom penh in Japan and South Korea at the ministerial conference,China's ministry of commerce minister Chen deming/Japan's economy minister of industry branch wild happiness male and South Korea's foreign minister treaty negotiations PiaoTaiGao BenBuChang decided to formally start the China, Japan and South Korea free trade negotiations,The first round of negotiations will be in the beginning of 2013.
成立基础业已存在
Foundation was already exists
就中日韩三国而言,从宏观经济联系到微观企业往来,各个层面都具备建立自由贸易区的初步条件。
Medium in South Korea and Japan,From the macro economic ties to microcosmic enterprise current,All levels have set up free trade area of the initial conditions.
目前,中日韩的经济总量占亚洲的约七成。过去10年间,中日两国贸易和中韩两国贸易的结构逐渐趋同。在中日两国贸易方面,中国对日本的机械设备和电子产品的出口比重明显增加,其中很大比例是加工贸易方式,大部分为日本在华企业产品出口,属产业内和公司内贸易。而韩国从中国进口的商品也逐步从初级产品转变为工业半成品或制成品,产业内贸易日益普遍。中日韩产业优势互补成为自贸区成立的基础。相对发达的日本和韩国在资本和技术密集型产业上竞争优势明显,中国的竞争优势目前仍主要集中于资源或劳动密集型产品。
At present,The republic of Korea's economy accounts for about seventy percent of Asia.In the past ten years,Trade between the two countries and the two countries' trade structure gradually convergence.Between the two countries in trade,China to Japan's mechanical equipment and electronic products export proportion increased significantly,Of which a large proportion is the way of processing trade,Most of the products are exported to Japan enterprise in China,Is in the industry and trade in the company.And South Korea imported from China commodity also gradually from primary products into industrial semi-finished or finished products,Intra-industry trade has become more common.Japan and South Korea in the industry have complementary advantages become the basis of free trade was established.The relatively developed in Japan and South Korea in the capital and technology intensive industry competitive advantages,China's competitive advantage is still the main focus on resources or labor-intensive products.
后金融危机时期,当一个传统的出口市场可能萎缩时,找到新的具有广阔成长空间的出口目的地就变成了很迫切的任务。中日韩三国恰恰就具有彼此互为出口市场的潜力。
After a period of financial crisis,When a traditional export market may be the atrophy,Find new has a broad space to grow up export destination becomes a very urgent task.China, South Korea and Japan with each other just as export market potential.
目前,中日韩的贸易规模已十分庞大,相互投资极为活跃,如果三国能够最终缔结自贸协定,这将是一个拥有超过15亿人口的潜在消费人群。目前,三国经济总量约占全球GDP的20%,其规模可以匹敌北美自由贸易区和欧盟的庞大自由贸易区,将有望形成一个全球第三大区域一体化市场。中国是日本和韩国的最大贸易伙伴,建立自贸区能够提升中国GDP2.9%,日本和韩国的GDP也分别能够提高0.5%和3.1%。
At present,The China, Japan and South Korea trade scale is huge,Mutual investment is very active,If The Three Kingdoms will eventually concluded the fta,This will be a has more than 1.5 billion population of potential consumers.At present,The total economic output accounts for about 20% of global GDP,Its size can equal North America free trade area and the European Union huge free trade area,Is expected to form a the third largest regional integration market.China is Japan and South Korea's biggest trading partner,Establishing a free trade can enhance the GDP2.9 %,Japan and South Korea's GDP also can be increased by 0.5% and 3.1% respectively.
从长远角度考虑,三国优先强化经济领域的合作,推动地区经济一体化,能降低对欧美市场的依赖性,增强内源发展能力,大大提高抵御因欧美货币政策变化所带来的冲击;同时,也可以为和平解决地区争端,维护东北亚和平与稳定创造良好条件。
From a long-term point of view,Three kingdoms priority strengthening economic cooperation,Promote regional economic integration,Can reduce the dependence to the European and American market,Enhance endogenous development capability,Greatly improve the monetary policy for Europe and the United States against the changes brought about by the impact;At the same time,Can also for a peaceful solution to the conflicts,Maintain peace and stability in northeast Asia create favorable conditions.
化解棘手问题不在一朝一夕
Solve difficult problem is not in one day
自贸区固然将在区域经济一体化、行业合作和技术升级等方面发挥重要作用,但自贸区建设在世界各地都是一个艰难、复杂的系统工程,欧盟统一大市场的基本建成耗时超过17年,且中间不乏反复和曲折。况且,在中日韩各国内部,推进自由贸易的进程中可能出现反对的声音。
Free trade is in regional economic integration/Industry cooperation and technical upgrade and plays important role,But the construction of free trade all over the world is a difficult/Complicated system engineering,The European Union unified market basically completed time consuming more than 17 years,And there is no lack of among repeatedly and zigzag.besides,In the republic of Korea within countries,Promote free trade in the process of possible objections.
中日韩自贸区的设立将涉及关税、各国货币、贸易伙伴等诸多方面的棘手问题,要在短期内一一加以解决恐怕较为艰难。比如,中国的制造业可能面临来自韩日进口商品的挑战,而韩国农业部也会抵制来自中国的农产品。作为美国的盟国,日本已经加入由其主导的跨太平洋(601099,股吧)经济合作伙伴协定谈判(TPP),其加入三国自贸区的必要性存在争议。日本国内政治形势不稳定也将影响自贸区的谈判。在韩国方面,该国与美国的自贸区协议也已生效。同时,考虑到美国对于三国自由贸易区建立的担忧,日韩也有所顾虑。
Japan and South Korea in the establishment of free trade in tariff/currencies/Trading partner of many aspects, such as tough questions,In the short term to solve more difficult one, I'm afraid.Such as,China's manufacturing industry could face the challenge of imported goods from South Korea,And South Korea's agriculture ministry will boycott the agricultural products from China.As an ally of the United States,Japan has joined by its leading across the Pacific Ocean(601099,guba)Economic cooperation partner agreement negotiations(TPP),Join the debate the necessity of free trade.Japan's domestic political situation is not stable will also affect free trade negotiations.In South Korea,The country's free trade agreement with the United States has also come into effect.At the same time,Considering the United States to establish the free trade area of concern,Japan and South Korea also have scruples.
除此之外,领土主权之争也是三个国家要面临的重大问题。目前,日本与中韩两国同时存在领土争端。
In addition,Territorial sovereignty rivalry is three countries face major issues.At present,Japan and the two countries simultaneously territorial disputes.
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