冬储市场当前面临政策利好。本周发布了《2013年关税实施方案》，虽然该政策的直接作用点不是冬储，但业内普遍认为该方案远看会利好明年化肥出口，近看会对当前的冬储有较大促进作用。而记者了解的事实是，有些地区的经销商已开始着手冬储，而且当前经销商面对冬储表现出较强的理性思考。 

DongChu market facing good policy.This week issued a[2013 tariff implementation plan],Although the policy direct point of application is not DongChu,But the industry is generally believed that the scheme will benefit the far see next fertilizer export,Close to the current DongChu look great role in promoting.And the fact that the reporter understands,In some areas, the dealer has begun DongChu,And the current dealers in the face of DongChu show strong rational thinking. 

　　记者在与东北、河北、河南、安徽等地的经销商交流中发现，多数经销商认为明春肥市形势较好，但对不同肥种，各地经销商的观点不同。大家都表示前两年冬储中大家赌性颇重，虽然理性上认为该冬储了，但总被市场价格的波动左右犹豫不前。 

Reporter in the northeast/hebei/henan/Anhui etc dealer found in communication,Most dealers think timetable for an American fat city situation better,But for different kinds of fat,Dealers a different perspective.Everyone said that the former two years DongChu people bet sex is quite heavy,Although the reason that the DongChu the,But there will always be market price fluctuations hesitated about. 

　　近期尿素出现上涨，但很多东北经销商还在观望。据了解，近期东北尿素到货基本是前期订单，高价几乎没有成交。磷肥市场相对乐观。内蒙古开鲁县经销商肖经理的看法很有代表性，他认为目前磷铵厂家还没有出价，但预计明年4月份厂家可能就开始提前集港，货源会比较紧张。他决定抓住时机储备一些二铵。 

The recent rise in urea,But a lot of northeast distributor is still in wait-and-see.It is understood,The recent arrival of the northeast urea is basically the order,Almost no clinch a deal price.Phosphate fertilizer market relatively optimistic.Inner Mongolia KaiLuXian dealers shaw manager's view is a representative,He argues that the current ammonium phosphate manufacturer had not bid,But in April next year is expected to manufacturers may began to advance collection,Supply of goods will be more nervous.He decided to take the opportunity to reserve some two ammonium. 

　　也有很多经销商表示，他们一直都不冬储。安徽利辛县经销商王立新介绍，当地经销商冬季基本都不做淡储。一方面，当地明年6月才用肥，冬储周期太长，风险很大；另一方面，市场货源充足，临近销售季节再备肥也来得及。河南新乡经销商冀新荣告诉记者，她周围很多经销商今年都不冬储了，主要是担心价格不稳。不过她还是准备冬储一些复合肥。 

Also has a lot of dealers said,They never DongChu.The symplectic county in anhui province WangLiXin dealer is introduced,The local dealer winter basic don't do light store.On the one hand,Local next June to use fertilizer,DongChu cycle is too long,Risk is very big;On the other hand,Market ample,Near the selling season for fertilizer could also again.Henan xinxiang dealers JiXinRong told reporters,Many dealers around her this year are not the DongChu,Mainly is worried about the price instability.But she was ready to DongChu some compound fertilizer. 

　　据了解，还有些经销商在冬储时会遇到库存和资金不足等困难。据河北省深州市经销商宋兵四介绍，当地很多经销商手中都有一些库存，他就有秋季剩下的400多吨肥，这些肥就可以趁明年春季的旺市销售。他本来计划库存一些复合肥，但因资金紧张而放弃。 

It is understood,Some dealers will meet in DongChu inventory and fund shortage and difficult.According to the hebei province specialized dealers song bing introduced four,Many of the local dealers hand have some inventory,He has left more than 400 tons of autumn of fat,The fat is in the spring of next year the bull market sales.He had planned inventory some compound fertilizer,But because of the financial strain and give up. 

　　江苏天丰农资有限公司总经理吴建强也是因资金而无法冬储。他介绍，由于当地大米的市场收购价格太低，今年的水稻到现在还没卖出去，农民还不了化肥款，经销商的货款回收很不顺利。 

Jiangsu days abundant agricultural materials co., LTD., general manager WuJianJiang is because of money to DongChu.He introduced,Due to the local rice market purchasing price is too low,This year's rice has yet to sell,Farmers also not in chemical fertilizer,Dealer's payment collection is not smooth. 

　　对于经销商的反应，厂家认为在情理之中。安徽六国化工营销公司总经理徐东奎认为，出口政策的利好更多体现在信心层面，对当前市场促进作用有限。目前，国内市场的症结在产能过剩和供求失衡上，单纯依靠出口这一条途径，不可能发生根本转变。江苏瑞和化肥有限公司市场部部长张圣霞对尿素的走势表示担忧。他认为，如果尿素价格继续上扬，意味着可能透支明年春季市场，很可能再次导致旺季跌价。（焦培培） 

For the dealer's reaction,Manufacturers think in reason.Anhui six chemical marketing company general manager XuDongKui think,Export policy benefit more reflected in the confidence level,On the current market to promote a limited role.At present,The root of the domestic market in excess capacity and supply and demand imbalances on,Only depend upon the export this way,Could not have happened fundamental transformation.Jiangsu red and fertilizer co., LTD. ZhangShengXia department minister for urea is worried about the situation.He thinks,If the urea prices continue to rise,Mean overdraft spring market next year,Very likely to lead to in the peak season.(JiaoPeiPei)