伴随国内外一系列重要宏观经济数据的公布，各界对中国经济前景再度向好的预期明显乐观。11月，美国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)达到52.4，在超预期的同时创下了5个月来的新高。中国11月汇丰PMI指数初值为50.4，创13个月新高，为一年多以来首次重返荣枯线上方，显示制造业有所回暖。11月，中国国内固定资产投资稳步增长，基建进一步加速，特别是消费品零售总额稳定增长，增幅超过10月的14.5%；工业增加值回升至10.1%。 

At home and abroad with a series of important macroeconomic data released,From all walks of life to China's economic outlook is expected to again good obviously optimistic.November,The United States manufacturing purchasing managers index(PMI)52.4,In the super expected at the same time a 5 months to high.China's November HSBC PMI index initial value is 50.4,And 13 months highs,For the first time since more than a year to return to the vicissitude line above,Display manufacturing have milder.November,China's domestic fixed asset investment steady growth,Construction further accelerated,Especially the stable growth of total retail sales of consumer goods,Increase more than 14.5% in October;Industrial added value back up to 10.1%. 

　　但海关总署发布的前11个月贸易数据则显得很不给力。前11个月，我国实现进出口贸易总值35002.75亿美元，同比增长5.8%。其中出口同比增长7.3%，进口同比增长4.1%。11月份，我国进出口贸易总值为3391.28亿美元，同比仅增长1.5%。其中出口同比增长2.9%，不仅低于此前9.6%的普遍市场预期，更低于前月11.6%的实际增速；进口总量虽与去年同期基本持平，但增速较前月下降了2.4个百分点。

But by the general administration of customs in the first 11 months of trade data is, is not to force.In the first 11 months of,For our country to realize import and export trade (GDP) of us $3.500275 trillion,Year-on-year growth of 5.8%.The export year-on-year growth of 7.3%,Imports increased 4.1% year-on-year.November,China import and export trade value is 339.128 billion dollars,Only 1.5% year-on-year growth.The export year-on-year growth of 2.9%,Not only less than 9.6% of the previous general market expectations,To be somewhat more less than 11.6% of the actual growth;Though the amount of imported with the same period last year the same basic,But growth is to be somewhat dropped by 2.4%.

　　整体来看，11月我国外贸的表现有两点值得特别关注。一是三年多来一般贸易进、出口增速首次同时由正转负；二是我国与主要贸易伙伴的进出口状况明显恶化。但如果仅将增幅下降归结于基期效应的影响，可能会在很大程度上忽视我国对外贸易的基本走势。因此，在世界各国外贸普遍减速的情况下，中国占世界贸易的份额要保持稳定增长，必然需要立足长远的新战略。

The whole,November our country foreign trade performance there are two deserves special attention.A is three years in general trade/Export growth for the first time by is turn negative;The second is China's main trading partners and the import and export of obvious deterioration.But if only increase will decline due to the effect of the base,May be largely ignored the basic situation of China's foreign trade.so,In the countries all over the world foreign trade under the condition of the general reduction,China's share of world trade share in order to keep a stable growth,It need based on the long-term new strategy.

　　基数效应不是问题的全部

Base effect is not the problem of all

　　11月外贸增速的急速下滑是否是源于基数效应的影响？表面上看，2011年10月，中国进出口总值约为2975.71亿美元，其中出口1573.52亿美元，进口1402.18亿美元；而2011年11月份的进出口总值大幅增加到3341.08亿美元，是2011年全年的峰值，其中出口1743.86亿美元，进口1597.22亿美元，环比增长分别高达12.3%、10.8%、13.9%。与此相对应，2012年11月的进出口绝对量相比10月增加了约200亿美元。从环比增速来看，虽然进口金额环比增速达到11.3%，但出口额环比增长仅为2.2%。从这个角度看，同比增幅低于今年10月份的同比增幅不足为奇。

November of foreign trade growth slowed sharply is originated from the effect of base?On the surface,In October 2011,China import and export value is about 297.571 billion dollars,Export of $157.352 billion,Imported 140.218 billion us dollars;In November 2011, the import and export value greatly increased to $334.108 billion,Is 2011 in the whole of peak,Export of $174.386 billion,Imported 159.722 billion us dollars,Link growth respectively as high as 12.3%/10.8%/13.9%.accordingly,November 2012 import and export absolute magnitude compared with October has been increased by about $20 billion.See from the link growth,Although the amount of import link rate of 11.3%,But exports link growth is only 2.2%.From this perspective,The year-on-year growth rate lower than this year in October, no wonder the year-on-year growth rate.

　　不过，既然是以基期为标准制定来年的增长目标，那么仅将增速急剧下滑归结于基期效应，可能不是很科学的态度。我们之所以更多选择同比而非环比指标的一个重要考虑，是试图剔除季度、假日等因素对实际数据的影响。如果将增幅下降归结于基期效应的影响，可能在很大程度上会忽视我国自2009年一季度以来，经过季节调整后，进出口总额、出口金额、进口金额同比增速“倒L型”的基本走势。而且，从历史数据来看，如果历年9月及以后的月度进、出口规模数据均表现出旺季特征，从而出现明显的环比正增长情况，那么11月急剧下滑的外贸表现，特别是出口额的环比增速明显低于本世纪初以来的同期均值等情况，就更需要深入思考。

but,Since the base is for the standards of the growth target,So only a sharp fall in the growth due to the base effect,May not be very scientific attitude.We have more choice up rather than link index is an important consideration,Is to try to eliminate the quarter/Holiday, etc factors on the influence of actual data.If the growth decline due to the effect of the base,May be in a large extent ignore our country since 2009 since the first quarter,After the season after the adjustment,Total import and export/Export value/The import amount year-on-year growth"Pour L"Basic trend.and,From the historical data to see,If the September and later monthly into/Export scale data are show season features,Thus appear obvious link positive growth situation,So November sharply declining foreign trade performance,Especially the link exports growth was significantly lower than the same period since the turn of the century of the mean, etc,The greater the need for further thinking.

　　关注贸易变动新细节

Pay attention to trade change new details

　　11月我国对外贸易的变动，在贸易方式、进出口国别等方面呈现了两个新的变化。首先，一般贸易进、出口增速同时由正转负，同比增速分别为-4.3%和-7.8%，分别较前月下降了14.4和1.5个百分点，出现明显恶化，上一次出现类似情况还要追溯到2009年8月。从预警角度，我国政府和外贸企业可能存在后续动力不足等问题。加工贸易相对略好一些，来料加工装配贸易出口额和进口额增速分别为-1.1%和-1.5%，增速分别较前月提高了1.7和-3.3个百分点，进料加工贸易出口额和进口额增速分别为2.8%和7.9%，分别较前月下降了1.5和0.7个百分点。11月加工贸易，尤其是进料加工贸易增速明显高于一般贸易增速可能与圣诞节订单有关。

November changes of China's foreign trade,In the trade way/Import and export country etc presented two new changes.First of all,General trade into/Export growth as well as the positive turn negative,Year-on-year growth respectively 4.3% and 7.8%,Were more to be somewhat fell 14.4 and 1.5%,Appear obvious deterioration,The last time appear similar situation also traced back to August 2009.From the Angle of the early warning,The Chinese government and foreign trade enterprise possible follow-up dynamic problems.Processing trade relative slightly better,Processing and assembling trade export and import growth respectively 1.1% and 1.5%,Growth is improved to be somewhat respectively 1.7 and 3.3%,Feed processing trade export and import growth were 2.8% and 7.9% respectively,Were more to be somewhat fell 1.5 and 0.7%.Processing trade nov.,Especially feed processing trade growth is obviously higher than that of the general trade growth may Christmas orders and relevant.

　　其次，我国与主要贸易伙伴的进出口状况明显恶化。在今年前10个月，我国最大的四个贸易伙伴中，虽然中欧、中日双边贸易分别下降了3.0%和2.1%，但中美、中国与东盟及俄罗斯、巴西等新兴经济体之间的贸易增速仍然保持了较高的增速，这在很大程度上确保了我国外贸占世界贸易份额的稳步增加。但是进入11月份，我国对主要贸易伙伴出口额呈现负增长，除与中国香港和台湾省的贸易显著好转外，中欧、中日双边贸易分别进一步下滑至4.1%和2.9%，中国与东盟、中俄、中巴等的双边贸易增速也分别下滑了0.1%、1.5%、2.4%。尤其值得重视的是，1~11月中美双边贸易总值为4386.2亿美元，中美双边贸易累计同比出现了近1个百分点的下降。考虑到美国日益临近的“财政悬崖”问题，后续还需密切关注中美贸易的具体变化。

secondly,With its major trading partners in the import and export of obvious deterioration.In the first 10 months of this year,China's largest trading partner in four,Although the central/Sino-japanese bilateral trade decreased by 3.0% and 2.1% respectively,But the/China and asean and Russia/Emerging economies such as Brazil trade between growth still maintained a high growth,This is largely ensures that the our country foreign trade of the world trade share increased steadily.But in November,The main trade partners in China exports show negative growth,In addition to China and Hong Kong and Taiwan trade outside the marked improvement,central/Sino-japanese bilateral trade were further down to 4.1% and 2.9%,China and asean/Between China and Russia/Such as China's bilateral trade growth dropped 0.1%, respectively/1.5%/2.4%.It is particularly worth attention,1 ~ 11 months sino-us bilateral trade value is 438.62 billion dollars,Bilateral trade between China and the United States accumulated up appear nearly 1% decline.Considering the United States an impending"Fiscal cliff"problems,The follow-up still need to pay close attention to sino-us trade specific changes.

　　笔者认为上述情况的出现有三个方面的原因：其一，企业现金流的约束。随着促内需政策的积极效应，企业可能会将以往满足国外市场的生产要素进行适度调整。考虑到外贸订单的平均时滞，临近年底时，部分外贸企业基于成本结算的资金需求考虑，会在一定程度上挤出平常因接单需要的部分占款。其二，世界经济复苏的动能仍然不足。11月摩根大通全球PMI指数连续5个月低于50%，显示全球制造业仍处于萎缩区域。特别是欧元区PMI已连续15个月低于50%，日本PMI连续5个月低于50%，继续拖累全球制造业复苏。其三，贸易摩擦涉及面越来越广。在经济低迷的背景下，贸易保护主义持续升温，我国面临的贸易摩擦明显增多。今年前三季度，我出口产品遭遇国外贸易救济调查55起，同比增长38%；涉案金额243亿美元。而且，贸易摩擦的领域逐步从传统产业向新兴产业扩展，尤其是新能源领域。

The author thinks that the emergence of the above three reasons:one,Enterprise cash flow constraints.To promote domestic demand policy with positive effect,Enterprises may be will ever meet the foreign market factors of production of the appropriate adjustment.Considering the foreign trade order average delay,Around at the end of the year,Part of the foreign trade enterprise based on cost settlement funds needs to consider,In a certain extent extrusion common for joint single need funding of part.The second,The world economic recovery of kinetic energy is still insufficient.November jp Morgan global PMI index for five months less than 50%,Display the global manufacturing industry is still in the shrinking area.Especially the eurozone PMI has continuous 15 months less than 50%,Japan PMI for five months less than 50%,Continue to drag down global manufacturing recovery.thirdly,Trade friction involve more and more widely.In the background of the economic downturn,Trade protectionism is on the rise,China faces a significant increase in trade friction.The first three quarters of this year,I export products encounter foreign trade remedy investigation 55 up,Year-on-year growth of 38%;Involving a value of $24.3 billion.and,Trade friction field gradually from traditional industry to expand new industry,Especially the new energy field.

　　保持贸易政策基调

Keep trade policy fundamental key

　　欧洲经济缺少复苏迹象、美国“财政悬崖”问题仍存隐患、中日经贸关系短期内也难以恢复正常化，而新兴经济体周期性、结构性矛盾也可能导致新兴经济体经济增速放缓，这些因素都会影响到外需。毫无疑问，我国外贸发展的外部形势依然严峻。而且，从内部来看，人口红利逐步减少，人民币汇率上升，人工费、通胀率等大幅增加等，都极大地削减了我国出口的竞争力。

European economic recovery of signs/The United States"Fiscal cliff"Problems are still hidden trouble/China-japan economic and trade relations in the short term is difficult to restore normalization,Periodically and emerging economies/Structural contradictions may also lead to economic slowdown in emerging economies,These factors will affect the overseas market demand.There is no doubt that,Our country foreign trade development of the external situation is still severe.and,From the inside to see,Demographic dividend gradually reduce,The RMB exchange rate rise,labor/The increase of inflation, etc,Are greatly reduced our export competitiveness.

　　尽管我国外贸增长的速度在放缓，但是，我国出口占国际贸易的市场份额有望在去年10.4%的基础上保持稳定或微幅上升。与此同时，出口增长的质量在提高、效益在提升、结构也在优化。前11个月我机电产品出口10645.4亿美元，增长8.2%，高出同期外贸出口总体增速0.9个百分点。尤为难得的是，一部分传统的劳动密集型产业正通过转型升级重获生机。前11个月，家具出口431.6亿美元，增长27.5%；塑料制品出口283.9亿美元，增长34.7%；鞋类出口415.2亿美元，增长10%，在传统劳动密集型产品出口额保持增长的情况下实现了出口商品结构的提升。此外，我国民营企业在进出口领域的作用在进一步显现。

Although our country foreign trade growth rate is slowing,but,Our export accounts for the international trade market share is expected to 10.4% last year on the basis of stable or grow slightly.meanwhile,Export growth in improving the quality of/Benefit in ascension/Structure are also optimized.The first 11 months of my mechanical and electrical products export $1.06454 trillion,Growth of 8.2%,The same period more than 0.9% of the total foreign trade export growth.Particularly rare is,Part of the traditional labor-intensive industries is through the transformation and upgrade to regain vitality.In the first 11 months of,Furniture export $43.16 billion,Growth of 27.5%;Plastic products export $28.39 billion,Growth of 34.7%;Footwear export $41.52 billion,Growth of 10%,In the traditional labor-intensive products export growth realize the export commodity structure of ascension.In addition,Our country private enterprise in the import and export field appeared role in further.

　　11月外贸的新特点更多的是受到内外部长期因素的影响，今后一段时间，应该保持促进外贸增长政策措施的持续性和稳定性，坚持出口和进口并重，利用大宗商品价格走低的时间窗口，稳定和引导大宗商品进口，适度扩大消费品进口，并在全国部署进口促进示范区，作为鼓励进口的金融、税收等新政的“试验田”，从而实行更加积极主动的开放战略，完善互利共赢、多元平衡、安全高效的开放型经济体系。

November foreign trade new features more by internal and external factors that influence the long-term,For a long time,Should keep promoting foreign trade policy measures to increase the continuity and stability,Pay equal attention to export and import,Use of commodity prices lower time window,Stability and guide the commodity import,Enlarging the consumer goods import,And in the national deployment import promote demonstration area,As to encourage imports of financial/The new tax, etc"Test field",So as to carry out more positive opening strategy,Perfect mutual benefit and win-win results/Multiple balance/Safety and efficiency of the open economy system.

　　(中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际贸易室 高凌云)

(The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at the international trade chamber GaoLing cloud)