昨日国家外汇管理局发布数据显示，2012年11月，银行代客结汇1366亿美元，售汇1181亿美元，结售汇顺差185亿美元。

Yesterday issued by the state administration of foreign exchange data display,In November 2012,Valet bank settlement of $136.6 billion,Sales of $118.1 billion,Below writtens guarantee surplus of $18.5 billion.

　　这是继今年8月出现63亿美元结售汇逆差后，连续第三个月的结售汇顺差，其中9、10、11月顺差分别为63亿美元、78亿美元、185亿美元，近1个季度以来顺差呈现逐步扩大的态势。

This is the August this year in $6.3 billion below writtens guarantee after deficit,For the third consecutive months of guarantee surplus,9/ten/November surplus of $6.3 billion, respectively/7.8 billion dollars/18.5 billion dollars,Nearly a quarter since present surplus gradually enlarged the situation.

　　汇率、出口走强使然

rate/Export due to stronger

　　兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委（微博）指出，结售汇出现顺差主要和近期人民币升值有关，从9月份开始，在即期市场上人民币有一个强劲的升值，这个升值的态势导致企业和居民结汇意愿增强。

Industrial bank chief economist lu zhengwei(Micro bo)Pointed out that,Below writtens guarantee appear surplus mainly and recent appreciation of the RMB relevant,Starts in September,Spot in the RMB has a strong appreciation,The appreciation of the nature of the enterprise and residents to settlement will increase.

　　“简单地说，是由于8月份之前，市场都是看空人民币的，但是9月由于其他的偶然的原因导致人民币突然升值，大家猛然发现市场和自己的判断不一样的时候，就会反过头来削减所持有的美元头寸。”鲁政委说。

"Say simply,Is due before August,Market are look empty yuan,But September because of other accidental causes the yuan rise suddenly,You suddenly find the market and their judgment is not the same time,Will reverse back to cut hold dollar position."Said lu zhengwei.

　　银河证券首席总裁顾问、经济学家左小蕾指出，出现顺差是很正常的，11月份我国出口增长2.9%，进口与去年持平，出口增长快于进口，贸易顺差196.3亿美元。

Galaxy securities chief President consultant/Economists ZuoXiaoLei pointed out,Appear surplus is very normal,Our export growth of 2.9% in November,As the import and last year,Export growth faster than imports,The trade surplus of $19.63 billion.

　　“并且由于我国出口企业不愿意用人民币结汇，而用美元结汇，但是进口愿意用人民币结汇，所以顺差一直都是存在的，并且顺差185亿美元算规模比较少的。”她说，“顺逆差交替出现也是和我国每个月份的进口和出口增长有关，结售汇的逆差和顺差主要是由贸易顺差和逆差造成的，这是由国际进出口市场决定的。但是由于出口的量总体上还是比进口的大，因此顺差的时候就会多一点。”

"And because our export enterprise is not willing to use RMB settlement,And settlement of dollars,But imports are willing to use RMB settlement,So surplus always exists,And surplus of $18.5 billion scale is less."She said,"The deficit is also appear alternately in China and in each of the import and export growth are concerned,Guarantee the deficit and surplus is mainly composed of trade surplus and deficit caused by,This is the international import and export market decision.But because of the amount of export or general than imported large,So when the surplus will be a little more."

　　汇率预期变动的影响

The influence of the exchange rate is expected to change

　　今年以来，银行代客结售汇呈现逆差、顺差交替的格局。

Since this year,The bank guarantee for guest present deficit/Surplus alternating pattern.

　　对于下一阶段银行代客结售汇的走向，鲁政委指出未来一段时间结售汇的走势和人民币汇率有关。如果人民币是升值的，那么结售汇肯定还是顺差。但是如果人民币进入一个升值贬值预期不可知的状态，那就不一定了。

For the next stage bank valet to guarantee,Lu zhengwei points out that in a period of time the movements of the guarantee and the RMB exchange rate.If the yuan is the appreciation,So must guarantee or surplus.But if the yuan into a revaluation depreciation expected unknown state,That is not necessarily the.

　　左小蕾则认为，未来结售汇顺差的格局还会延续，因为结售汇的问题到现在还没有解决，“从结售汇以来，90%的结汇来自于进口，出口几乎都按照美元结汇，使用人民币结汇的只占10%，这个顺差本身就很大的，这主要是我们自己的企业对人民币没有信心的问题。”她说。

ZuoXiaoLei argues that,The pattern of the future writtens guarantee surplus will continue,Because the problem of guarantee until now has not been solved,"Since from below writtens guarantee,90% of the settlement of exchange from import,Export almost $in accordance with the settlement,Use RMB settlement of only ten%,The surplus itself a lot of,This is mainly our own enterprise to RMB without confidence."She said.

　　另一方面，对于今年结售汇情况呈现各月逆差、顺差交替的现象，业界普遍认为这是人民币汇率开始进入双向波动区间在结售汇收支情况上的表现。而今年4月，央行也发文进一步扩大了外汇市场每日人民币汇率浮动区间至1%，汇率市场的预期变动对于结售汇情况的影响日趋明显。

On the other hand,For this year guarantee present situation produced deficit/The alternation of surplus,The industry generally believe that this is the RMB exchange rate began to enter the two-way fluctuation interval in guarantee balance of performance.And in April this year,The central bank also outgoing mail further extend the exchange market daily RMB exchange rate floating range from 1% to,Exchange rate market expectations changes on the impact of guarantee has become increasingly evident.

　　四季度以来，人民币逐日走强，汇率多次创下兑美元新高，提升了企业、居民的结售汇意愿，鲁政委认为主要是由于人民币浮动区间太小，如果波动幅度扩大的话，出现的肯定是一个有升有贬的状态。

Since the fourth quarter,The stronger day by day,Many times the dollar exchange rate set a record high,Promoted enterprise/Residents will guarantee,Lu zhengwei think is mainly due to the yuan floating interval is too small,If the fluctuation range expanding words,There is certainly a rise and implications of state.

　　“由于波幅太小，导致还没开始抛市场就涨停，美元头寸削不掉，这就造成了一定的恐慌，并且导致了持续的涨停，涨停就意味着谁也跑不掉。”鲁政委说，“如果把波动幅度扩大，让持有者可以把多余的头寸削减掉。这样才能真正进入一个双边波动状态。”

"Due to the small amplitude,Lead to haven't started to throw market harden,Cut off dollar position,This caused a panic,And lead to the continuous harden,Harden means who also ran off."Said lu zhengwei,"If the fluctuation range expanding,Gives the holder can put redundant position cut off.In order to truly into a bilateral fluctuation state."

　　顺差规模或仅及去年1/7

Surplus size or only and 1/7 last year

　　外汇局数据还显示，2012年1～11月，银行代客累计结汇13994亿美元，累计售汇13431亿美元，银行代客累计结售汇顺差563亿美元。

The data also showed,2012 1 ~ 11 months,Bank valet accumulated settlement of $1.3994 trillion,Total sales of $1.3431 trillion,Bank valet accumulated writtens guarantee surplus of $56.3 billion.

　　另一方面，2011年,银行代客累计结汇15979亿美元，累计售汇12300亿美元，银行代客累计结售汇顺差3679亿美元。

On the other hand,In 2011,,Bank valet accumulated settlement of $1.5979 trillion,Total sales of $1.23 trillion,Bank valet accumulated writtens guarantee surplus of $367.9 billion.

　　因此，预计今年银行代客累计结售汇顺差将远远小于往年水平。业界普遍认为，跨境资本流动从单边流入向双边流动转变，人民币长期贬值预期增强，升值预期减弱，是结售汇意愿出现改变、结售汇规模发生变化的主要原因。

so,This year is expected to total bank valet writtens guarantee surplus will be far less than usual level.Industry is generally believed that,Cross-border capital flows from unilateral inflow to bilateral flow transition,The long-term depreciation is expected to increase,Appreciation is expected to weaken the,There is a guarantee to change/Guarantee the main reason for the scale change.

　　“不论人民币即期市场如何涨停，远期市场的贬值预期也没有改变。这就意味着不是远期贬值预期没有变就代表即期不会升值，因为这是一个市场交易行为。只要即期市场是升值的，从动量驱动的角度来看，不跟着去结汇就意味着马上有汇率的损失。”鲁政委说。

"No matter how the spot market, harden,The decline in the value of the forward market expectations are not change.This means that not forward depreciation expected does not change means sight won't rise,Because this is a market transaction behavior.As long as the spot market is appreciation,From the point of view of momentum drive,Don't follow to settlement means the loss of the exchange rate right away."Said lu zhengwei.