近来，人民币对美元呈现多次涨停。不过记者观察到，人民币中间价已开始小幅回稳。短期因素冲击过后，即期汇价有望向中间价靠拢，人民币汇率将以双向波动、基本稳定为主，这一轮人民币升值或已进入尾声。

recently,The RMB against the us dollar present many times harden.But reporter observed,The middle rate has begun to bounce back slightly.Short-term factors after the impact,Spot exchange rate is expected to draw close to the middle price,The RMB exchange rate will be two-way fluctuation/Basic stability is given priority to,This round of the appreciation of the renminbi or has come to an end.

　　升值压力略有减缓

Appreciation pressure slightly slow

　　11月1日，尽管人民币对美元在即期市场再度触及上限，当日人民币兑美元的中间价则小幅下行15个基点。

On November 1,,Although the RMB against the us dollar in the spot market again hit the ceiling,On that day the middle of the yuan against the dollar price is small descending 15 basis points.

　　事实上，自10月30日以来，人民币兑美元汇率中间价便重返6．30上方，不再创出新高。

In fact,Since since October 30,,The dollar middle rate returned to 6.30 above,No longer to fresh record highs.

　　相较于中间价的小幅回调，人民币对美元在即期市场的走势依然活跃。据市场人士反映，较此前两次开盘即封涨停相比，近两日人民币升值压力确实略有减缓。

Compared with the small medium price callback,The RMB against the us dollar in the spot market trend is still active.According to market participants reflect,A previous two opening namely seal compared to harden,Nearly two days the appreciation of the renminbi pressure really slow down slightly.

　　中国银行金融分析师列出三大因素：一来，如果任由人民币升值，将不利于稳定外贸出口；加上美国大选很快就将落定，人民币缺少继续升值的外部动力；另外，美元经济向好，有望在未来数个月转强，届时人民币对美元汇率将转弱并双向波动。综上所述，人民币的升值因素逐渐趋弱，对美元汇率即将见顶。“同人民币汇价预期最相关的其实还是中国经济基本面的因素。此前，大部分市场人士都预计中国今年经济增速在8％以上，由此整个经济下调幅度超预期。”摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌在接受记者采访时表示，“今年剩下的几个月内，人民币对美元会位于6．3上下附近波动。”

The bank of China financial analysts list three factors:way,If let the appreciation of the RMB,Will do harm to the stable export;Add the U.S. presidential election will be settled soon,The lack of continue to rise the external power;In addition,Dollars undermined economic,Is expected in the next few months turned strong,At the appointed time of the RMB against the us dollar exchange rate will be weaker and two-way fluctuation.To sum up,The rise in the yuan factors tend gradually weak,Against the us dollar exchange rate will see top."With the RMB exchange rate expected the most relevant in fact or China's economic fundamentals factors.after,Most market participants are expected this year China economic growth in more than 8%,Thus the whole economic declines than expected."Jpmorgan China chief economist ZhuHaiBin when accepting a reporter to interview said,"The rest of this year's within a few months,The yuan to the dollar will is located in 6.3 near and fluctuation."

　　分析人士称，由于美元抛盘可能已消耗殆尽，一旦央行在力挺中间价的态度上有所转变，购汇盘可轻易推动人民币走软。除非央行仍适度保留对市场的干预力度，否则极易出现人民币走势的逆转。

Analysts say,Because of the dollar PaoPan may have consumed,Once the central bank in the force's middle rate of attitude change,Purchase for plate can be easily push RMB go soft.Unless the central bank still moderate reserves the right to market intervention efforts,Otherwise, appear easily RMB trend reversal.

　　国际“热钱”并非主因

international"Hot money"Not cause

　　10月以来，人民币兑美元已累计升值近1％，并在即期市场屡现“涨停”。随即媒体陆续报道称，第三轮量化宽松货币政策（QE3）导致“热钱”流入境内，从而推升人民币汇率。

Since October,The accumulative appreciation against the dollar has nearly 1%,And in the spot market is repeatedly"harden".Then the media have reported,The third round of quantitative easing monetary policy(qE3)Lead to"Hot money"inflows,So as to push the exchange rate for the renminbi.

　　然而，业内人士指出，上述并非人民币走高的主因。建设银行高级研究经理赵庆明表示：“我国仍实行资本管制，短时间境外资金的大规模流进流出操作上难度较大，‘热钱大规模冲击’一说难以令人信服。”

however,The personage inside course of study points out that,The above is not the main higher.Construction bank senior research manager ZhaoQingMing said:"Our country still implement capital controls,A short time of mass flow into the overseas capital outflow operation difficult,‘Hot money massive impact’Say is unconvincing."

　　招商银行高级分析师刘东亮指出：“QE3与人民币汇率的关系不大。由于人民币外汇市场迄今仍是一个较为封闭的境内市场，参与机构以中资大行为主，走势相对独立，不易受到境外影响。”

China merchants bank senior analyst pointed out that LiuDongLiang:"qE3 and the RMB exchange rate is the relationship.Because RMB exchange market so far is still a relatively closed the domestic market,Participating institutions with domestic big line is given priority to,Trend relative independent,Are less susceptible to influence overseas."

　　究竟什么支持了在岸人民币汇率走高？

What support the RMB exchange rate go higher?

　　首先，目前市场还是以结汇为主。在中间价坚挺之下，企业与银行都意识到，央行不会允许人民币贬值，为了避免潜在的亏损，抛售美元就成为短期的最佳策略。

First of all,The present market or in the settlement of exchange is given priority to.In the middle price under the strong,Enterprises and Banks are realized,The central bank will not allow the devaluation of RMB,In order to avoid potential losses,Selling dollars will be short-term optimal strategy.

　　此外，银行间市场上人民币流动性的暂时性紧张也是推高人民币汇价的又一因素。中国银行金融分析师侯丽萍介绍，商业银行由于种种原因导致本币流动性变差，急于从各种渠道获得人民币，因此可能会通过抛售美元的方式来达到一部分目的。如果美元处于贬值行情中，则这一现象可能更加明显。

In addition,The inter-bank market liquidity on the temporary tension is also push up the yuan exchange rate and a factor.The bank of China financial analysts HouLiPing is introduced,Commercial bank for a variety of reasons lead to local currency liquidity variation,From various channels to get RMB,So may through the selling dollars part way to achieve purpose.If the dollar devaluation in the market,Is this phenomenon may be more apparent.

　　由此可见，在市场化不断推进的背景下，人民币汇率市场受境内货币市场的影响也逐渐上升，成为投资交易者的考虑因素之一。

Thus it can be seen,In the market continuously advancing background,The RMB exchange rate by market within the territory of the influence of the money market also gradually rise,Become investment traders consideration factor.

　　出口企业有回旋空间

Export enterprises have cyclotron space

　　值得注意的是，在这一轮人民币升值的过程中，出现了一些新特点，让市场对人民币汇率的改革萌发了新期待。

It is important to note that,In this round of the process of the appreciation of the renminbi,There have been some new characteristics,Let the market to the reform of RMB exchange rate had a new look forward to.

　　最显著的特点是央行的态度。与以往不同，中国央行在这一轮升值过程中表现超然，没有明显干预，也没有利用中间价“维稳”，可谓顺势而为。对此，国际市场也将进一步肯定。

The most distinguishing characteristics is the central bank's attitude.And different,China's central bank in this round of appreciation process performance detachment,No obvious intervention,No use of the middle price"Dimensional stability",It's for.this,The international market will also further affirmation.

　　专家称，人民币汇改或将迎来新的突破。星展银行经济学家周洪礼预计，明年一季度左右，央行可能将人民币对美元汇率的浮动区间进一步扩大，以增强人民币弹性。

Experts say,RMB exchange change or will have new breakthrough.DBS bank ZhouHongLi economists expected,In the first quarter of next year or so,The central bank may the RMB against the us dollar exchange rate's fluctuation interval further expand,In order to enhance the elasticity.

　　不可忽视的是，在人民币汇率制度改革的进程中，令外贸企业生存环境也发生了变化。一达通副总经理肖锋告诉记者：“中小企业感到了来自汇率的压力，但应对办法不多。受汇率波动影响，许多中小企业的外贸订单呈现短期化趋势。”

Do not ignore,In the RMB exchange rate system reform process,Make foreign trade enterprise survival environment has also had the change.To pass a deputy general manager XiaoFeng told reporters:"Small and medium-sized enterprises feel from the exchange rate of pressure,But they are tackling not much.By exchange rate fluctuations,Many small and medium-sized enterprise foreign trade order a lot of present trend."

　　对外经贸大学金融学院教授丁志杰指出，国内企业在汇率风险管理方面很不成熟。数据显示，从4月到9月期间，由于人民币出现阶段性贬值，银行代客远期售汇（企业买远期美元）均大于远期结汇，导致企业锁定了一个高的价格买入美元，而未锁定卖出美元的价格。

Foreign economic and trade university financial institute professor DingZhiJie pointed out,Domestic enterprises in the exchange rate risk management is not mature.Data display,From April to September period,Because RMB devaluation in stages,Bank valet forward sale(Enterprise long forward dollars)Are greater than forward foreign exchange settlement,Lead to enterprise lock a high price to buy dollars,And not to lock the price of sell the dollars.

　　面对企业的担心和顾虑，丁志杰建议，目前人民币即期升值、远期贬值其实给了出口企业回旋缓冲空间，企业应通过远期结汇锁定汇率，或在订单合同中加入价格调整条款等方法规避汇兑风险。

In the face of the enterprise's concern and apprehension,DingZhiJie Suggestions,At present the RMB appreciation at sight/Forward devaluation in fact to the export enterprise cyclotron buffer space,Enterprise should be through the forward foreign exchange settlement lock exchange rate,Or in order to join in the contract price adjustment provisions method to avoid foreign exchange risk.