彼得·萨瑟兰/文

Peter Sutherland/text

　　全球贸易谈判多哈回合今年无声无息地死去了。其中一小部分或许可以救活，但根本现实是，这是改变二战后全球经济面貌的多边贸易谈判史上一次独一无二的失败。 

The doha round of global trade talks quietly died this year.A part of it may be able to save,But the ultimate reality is,This is the change after the second world war, the global economic outlook of multilateral trade talks last unique history of failure. 

　　前七次谈判——包括成立作为关贸总协定继承者的世界贸易组织的1995年乌拉圭回合——有多次都经历了多年才得以完成，但没有一次在无人愿意看一眼的情况下寿终正寝。今天的冷漠在美国特别显而易见（尽管美国不是唯一冷漠的国家）。奥巴马总统在连任竞选过程中对此只字不提，在其第一次竞选中也几乎没有谈过这一问题。 

Seven times before the talks - including the setting up of the gatt as the heir of the world trade organization in 1995, Uruguay round - many experienced years to complete,But no one in the no one would like to have a look at under the condition of the die.Today's cold in the United States is special(Although the United States is not the only cold country).President Obama in re-election campaign made no mention of it,In his first campaign and almost no about this problem. 

　　成功的多边贸易谈判极大地改变了我们所居住的世界，也极大地改善了千百万人的生活。1960~1990年，只有五分之一的人生活在经济开放社会，如今，这一比例是十分之九。 

Successful multilateral trade negotiations greatly changed the world we live in,Also greatly improved the lives of ten million people.1960 ~ 1990,Only one 5 of the people live in economic open society,now,This proportion is nine over ten. 

　　关贸总协定和世贸组织开发的基于规则的贸易体系被几乎整个国际社会所接受。它为此前的计划和进口替代经济提供了真正的路线图，帮助它们融入全球市场。 

Gatt and the wto development based on the rules of the trading system is almost the whole international society to accept.It is previous plan and import substitution economy provides the real map,Help them into the global market. 

　　当初，“全球化”是个贬义词。但是，即使在反对全球化者看来，其对于穷国的价值也得到了承认，因为它帮助十多亿亚洲人民走出了不幸的贫困。尽管非洲和部分拉美国家还需要更多，但多哈回合可以在向更多发展中国家提供市场进入（从而得到机会）方面有所助益。 

had,"globalization"Is a derogatory term.but,Even in those against globalization seems to be,For the poor countries value has been admitted,Because it helps ten more than Asian people out of the unfortunate poor.Although Africa and parts of Latin American countries need more,But the doha round to more developing countries to provide market entry(So as to get the chance to)Aspects help. 

　　多边体系基于两个原则：无歧视和国民待遇。前者在贸易谈判者的词典中就是“最惠国”原则，即保证向一国提供的贸易优惠条件同时向所有国家提供。后者要求成员国在国内向贸易伙伴国提供与本国国民一样的待遇。 

Multilateral system based on two principles:No discrimination and national treatment.The former in trade negotiator dictionary is"Most favored nation"principle,That is to ensure that a country provide trade preferential policies at the same time to all countries to provide.The latter requires countries to trade partners in China to provide citizens with the same treatment. 

　　无歧视原则保证了全球贸易不会沦落为特惠双边贸易协定的“意大利面碗”。此外，贸易谈判的多边框架让弱小国可以获得比被迫与中国、美国、欧洲等国家和地区进行双边谈判时可能面临的更加平衡的条件。 

No discrimination principle to ensure the global trade not reduced to a preferential bilateral trade agreement"Spaghetti bowl".In addition,Trade negotiation of multilateral framework for small countries can be obtained with China than forced/The United States/Europe and other countries and regions for bilateral negotiations could face more balanced conditions. 

　　事实上，近几年来，主要贸易国家和区域越来越多地转向了双边协议。显然，这几乎耗尽了它们的全部注意力。世贸组织被边缘化了，未完成的多哈回合所达成的有限成果在可以预见的将来也无法形成最终协定。 

In fact,In recent years,Major trading countries and regions are turning more and more to the bilateral agreement.obviously,It was almost spent their whole attention.The world trade organization (wto) the marginalized,Unfinished doha round by a limited results in the foreseeable future also cannot form a final agreement. 

　　世贸组织信誉受损——它一度被赞美为战后制度建设创新以来最伟大的全球治理进步——可能还将继续下去。更糟糕的是，其严重后果可能不仅仅在于贸易，也将在于更一般的政治关系。 

The world trade organization (wto) reputation damaged - it has been praised for post-war system construction innovation since the great progress of global governance - may will continue.worse,The serious consequences may not only lies in the trade,Will is more general political relations. 

　　世贸组织的最伟大成就之一是其裁决系统，即所谓的纠纷解决机制。这一独立系统的成功有目共睹，相当于让世界有了一个有效的准法庭系统解决贸易伙伴之间的纠纷。但其成功能否持续最终取决于世贸组织本身的信誉；多边谈判的失败将不可避免地导致它遭受附带伤害。 

The world trade organization is one of the great achievements of the ruling system,The so-called dispute resolution mechanism.The independent system success be obvious to all,Equivalent to let the world had a effective quasi court system to solve the dispute between trading partners.But its success depends on keeping the wto itself reputation;The failure of the multilateral talks will inevitably lead to it suffered collateral damage. 

　　事实上，伴随当前忙不迭转向双边贸易协议的现象出现的是保护主义的兴起。比如，自2008年以来，欧盟出台了424项此类新措施。另外，欧盟的无歧视关税也只对九大贸易伙伴完全适用。其他贸易伙伴都有“例外”待遇。 

In fact,With the current scurrying to bilateral trade agreement phenomenon appeared in the rise of protectionism.Such as,Since 2008,The European Union issued a 424 items such new measures.In addition,The European Union without discrimination tariff also only for nine largest trading partner is completely.Other trading partners have"exception"treatment. 

　　其次，毫无疑问，我们将看到欧盟和美国之间的双边贸易协议。欧盟-日本协议已经出现，“跨太平洋(5.31,-0.09,-1.67%)合作伙伴”则旨在实现美国与主要亚洲和拉美经济体之间的贸易自由化。我认为这两者不管何者成为现实，世界贸易的一大部分都将进入歧视框架中。 

secondly,There is no doubt that,We will see the European Union and the United States between the bilateral trade agreement.The European Union - Japan agreement has appeared,"Across the ocean(5.31,0.09,1.67% -)partners"It aims to realize the United States and major Asia and Latin American economies between trade liberalization.I think the two no matter what become a reality,The world trade of will enter the discrimination framework. 

　　一些人意识到了这一风险。2011年5月，哥伦比亚大学的贾格迪什·巴格瓦提和我共同主持了由英国、德国、土耳其和印尼首相或总理组成的高级别小组，试图推动多边程序的进步。我们的发起人欢迎我们的建议，但类似的努力并没有获得多少动力，所有国家仍一股脑儿奔向充满不确定性和风险的世界。 

Some people are aware of the risk.In May 2011,Columbia University JiaGeDi assorted · baga tile mention and I jointly presided over by the British/Germany/Turkey and Indonesia prime minister or the prime minister of high level group,Trying to push the progress of multilateral process.Our sponsors welcome our proposal,But similar efforts and don't get much power,All countries still completely toward full of uncertainty and risk of the world. 

　　现在扭转双边主义不可阻挡的潮流还为时未晚。但唯一的可行之道是通过世贸组织谈判来推进。即使多哈回合无法产生结果，也可以通过其他路径，比如实施已经形成共识的措施。另一个替代方案是在有意愿的国家之间推行具体领域（如服务业）的多边谈判，其他世贸组织成员随后跟进。 

Now turn bilateralism unstoppable trend is too late.But the only feasible way is through the world trade organization (wto) talks to advance.Even if the doha round can't produce results,Can also through the other path,Such as the implementation of the measures has been formed consensus.Another alternative is to in the implementation of the specific fields between countries(Such as service)Multilateral negotiations,Other wto members then follow up. 

　　但如果我们想要前进，而不是倒退回危险的旧路，那么（特别是）美国必须重新担起多边主义中流砥柱的角色。美国必须和以往一样再次成为领袖。此外，这一回必须将中国也拉到美国一边。 

But if we want to progress,Rather than risk a throwback to the old road,so(especially)The United States must reaffirm shouldering multilateralism mainstay role.The United States must and usual once again become a leader.In addition,This time China will also pull to the side.