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进口增速或为7.8%--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2013-01-25

  首席经济学家丁安华于2013年1月25日10点在财苑进行访谈活动,被财苑网友问及对外贸的看法时,其表示,从出口看,最近几年出现一些新的变化趋势。从产品类型看,机电产品和高新技术产品出口增长波动相对较小,基本维持出口正增长;劳动密集型产品出口增速则起伏较大,波幅往往大于整体出口的波动范围。

Chief economics GuDing anhua on January 25, 2013 in 10 wealth garden interview activity,Is money garden net friend asked on foreign trade ideas,It says,Look from the outlet,In recent years, some new trend.From the product type to see,Mechanical and electrical products and new high-tech product export increase in volatility is relatively small,Basic maintain export positive growth;Labor-intensive products export growth is larger fluctuation,Amplitude are often more than the whole export wave range.

  整体出口恶化时,劳动密集型产品出口更加恶化,而整体出口好转时,劳动密集型产品出口会有更大程度的改善。从贸易伙伴看,虽然欧美市场对总体的出口仍举足轻重,但增长主要来源于新兴市场。去年我国对东盟出口平均增速依然维持在20%的水平上,而东盟、日本、韩国等东亚贸易伙伴占我国的出口比重已超过20%。未来区域内贸易对我国外贸形势的影响将不断增强。2013年,美国和欧洲经济虽然困难重重,但总体来说应该比去年有所改善,预计出口增速约为9.0%。 

The whole export deteriorates,Labor-intensive products export to worsen,And the whole export as well,Labor-intensive products export will have a greater degree of improvement.See from trading partners,Although the European and American market for gross export is still very important,But growth mainly comes from emerging markets.In China last year for asean export average growth still maintain at 20% level,But asean/Japan/South Korea and other east Asian trade partner of China's export proportion has more than 20%.The future trade in the region of our country foreign trade the influence of the situation will continue to increase.In 2013,,The United States and European economic although difficulties,But in general should be improved than last year,Export growth is expected to about 9.0%. 

  进口方面,去年的增速偏低,主要原因是国内经济增长放缓导致的内需回落;另一方面,大宗商品价格回落也放大了进口增速的下滑程度。2013年,由于国内经济增速温和上升,基建投资、房地产投资形势将会有所改善,进口需求回升,预计进口增速约为7.8%。 

Import aspects,Last year's growth is low,The main reason is the domestic economic growth slowed down to domestic demand;On the other hand,Commodity prices fell back also magnifies the import growth degree of decline.In 2013,,Because the domestic economic growth rise modestly,Infrastructure investment/Real estate investment situation will be improved,Import demand picks up, enquiries will revive.,Is expected to import growth of about 7.8%. 



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