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1月通胀及贸易数据将公布--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2013-02-07

  中国将在本周五(2月8日)公布2013年1月的主要宏观经济指标。根据国家统计局已经公布的日程表,固定资产投资、工业增加值、社会商品零售总额届时会缺席。从此前公布的1月份官方PMI来看,显示中国经济走势基本平稳。

China will in this Friday(On February 8)Published in January 2013 the main macroeconomic indicators.According to the national bureau of statistics has issued schedule,Fixed asset investment/Industrial added value/Total volume of retail sales will be absent.From previously published January official PMI to see,Shows that China's economic situation basic smooth.

  澳新银行新一期研究报告认为,由于季节性因素的存在,这些数据都将受到较为严重的基数效应的影响。预测通胀可能出现一定的下降,但贸易增速将大幅上升。

Australia bank a new period research report says,Due to the presence of seasonal factors,These data will be more serious effect of base.Forecast inflation may appear a certain decline,But trade growth will rise sharply.

  兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委[微博]表示,1月份经济指标的读数预计会很靓丽,市场对中国经济增长的悲观谨慎情绪也会一扫而空,但1月份数据齐齐走强的情况不会持久。就上半年而言,经济都会温和回升。

Industrial bank chief economist lu zhengwei [micro bo] said,January economic indicator reading is expected to be very beautiful,Market for China's economic growth pessimistic cautious mood will sweep away,But in January of ordered data stronger don't last long.In the first half of it in,The economy will rebound mild.

  莫尼塔研究报告认为,春节因素将对1月份的数据形成较大的干扰。莫尼塔判断1月份CPI同比将会因此出现较大幅度的下降,而进出口同比则会出现上升。

Monie tower research report says,The Spring Festival in January factors contribute to the data form a larger interference.Monie tower judgment in January year-on-year CPI will therefore have more substantial decline,And import and export year-on-year rise will appear.

  光大证券首席宏观分析师徐高表示,“2013年春节在2月10日,与2012年1月23日的春节在日历上相差半个月。春节的错位将大幅扰动今年1、2月同比数据。”其中,受春节扰动最明显的是CPI和外贸。1月CPI将偏低,2月偏高;1月贸易增速会偏高,2月偏低。

Everbright securities chief macroeconomic analyst xu high said,"The Spring Festival in 2013 on February 10,,And on January 23, 2012 Spring Festival on the calendar are half a month.The dislocation of the Spring Festival will be greatly disturbed this year 1/2 months year-on-year data."the,The Spring Festival is the most obvious disturbance is CPI and foreign trade.January CPI will be low,February is on the high side;January trade growth will be on the high side,February is low.



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