随着美国总统奥巴马2月12日在国情咨文中明确表态以及欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐宣布消息，美欧双方启动自由贸易协定谈判已成定局。

As the US President barack Obama on February 12, in the state of the union message clearly declare and President of the European commission, jose Manuel barroso, announced the news,Both the us and Europe start free trade agreement negotiations has become a foregone conclusion.

　　在区域经济一体化潮流席卷全球之际，美欧这一对政经关系紧密的贸易伙伴启动自贸协定谈判，实属当然。正值旷日持久的次贷危机——美欧主权债务危机使经济全球化进程停滞不前之际，世界最大的两个经济体启动自贸协定谈判，对维护自由贸易体制无疑是一项利好。

In the regional economic integration trend across the world,The pair of political and economic relationship between the us and Europe close trade partner start the fta negotiations,Is of course.As long the subprime crisis - the American and European sovereign debt crisis make the economic globalization process of stagnant,The world's two largest economies start the fta negotiations,To maintain free trade system is undoubtedly a good.

　　然而，考虑到美欧双方有可能通过区域经济一体化侧面包抄多哈回合，迫使多哈回合接受未必尽然合理的主张，拟议中的美欧自贸协定谈判对全球经贸规则的公平合理影响如何，目前还实难预测。当然，考虑到欧盟决策机制存在民主过度、议而不决、决而不行的致命缺陷，美欧自贸协定谈判预期的利益能否实现、能否如期完成谈判，均在未定之数。

however,Considering both the us and Europe may through the regional economic integration side outflank the doha round,Forced the doha round to accept not altogether a reasonable position,The proposed us and European the fta negotiations on global trade rules of the fair and reasonable effect how,There is real hard to predict.Of course,Considering the decision mechanism has democratic excessive/Discuss without decisions/Never and no fatal defects,Us and European the fta negotiations the anticipated benefit can be realized/Can finish negotiations,Are the number of open.

　　通过区域经济一体化谈判侧面包抄世贸组织/关贸总协定框架下的全球多边自由贸易谈判，这一策略美国历史上早已成功实施过。北美自由贸易协定谈判与关贸总协定乌拉圭回合的进展就是一个典型案例。关贸总协定乌拉圭回合多边谈判1986年启动，1991年2月乌拉圭回合终期会议磋商续会破裂；当月，美、加、墨三国首脑宣布决定启动北美自由贸易协定谈判，1994年北美自由贸易协定生效，其中许多内容成为其后达成的《乌拉圭回合最终文件》模板。

Through the regional economic integration spurned the wto negotiations side/gatt under the framework of the global multilateral free trade negotiations,This strategy in the history of the United States has had successful implementation.North American free trade agreement negotiations and gatt Uruguay round development is a typical case.Gatt Uruguay round of multilateral negotiations launched in 1986,In February 1991 the Uruguay round negotiations eventually period meeting not broken;month,beauty/add/The ink leaders announced its decision to start north American free trade agreement negotiations,1994 north American free trade agreement effect,Many of them to be followed by content[The Uruguay round final document]template.

　　由于多哈回合连续停滞多年，审视力推“泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定”(TPP)和启动美欧自由贸易协定谈判等举措，不难看出美欧用心所在，即企图保持、掌握区域经贸协定谈判主导权，从侧面包抄，最终按照己方意愿塑造世贸组织多哈回合及以后谈判面貌。假如这一企图得逞的话，在全球贸易体系中份额提升最快的亚洲将是受影响最大的区域。奥巴马国情咨文提及美欧自由贸易协定谈判时明确说到：自由贸易协定将可“提振美国出口、支持美国就业以及让亚洲市场上的‘竞技场’变得更加公平”。

Because of the doha round of continuous stalled for years,Look at promoting"Pacific rim strategic economic partnership agreement"(TPP)And start the American and European free trade agreement negotiations, and some other measures,It is not difficult to see that the us and Europe in heart,Is trying to keep/Regional economic and trade agreement negotiations to literature,From the side outflank,According to its final shape to the wto doha round negotiations and look after.If the attempt to succeed words,In the global trading system share ascension the fastest Asia will be the most affected areas.Obama referred to the state of the union address the American and European free trade agreement negotiations clear said:Free trade agreement will be"Boost American exports/Support the United States employment and let the Asian market‘arena’Become more fair".

　　当然，假如美欧在多哈回合谈判中的立场要求完全体现公平合理的标准，符合多哈回合的“发展导向”，那么美欧上述策略居心也并非一剂毒药。但是，自上世纪90年代以来，经济全球化潮流中最大的问题是收益和负担分配不平衡，发展中国家分享的全球化收益太少，承担的调整负担太多，而经济全球化的两大支柱组织——世界贸易组织和国际货币基金组织的规则本身就存在这方面的问题，执行规则过程中问题更多。美欧的许多主张恰恰是要求维持上述负面特征，这就不能不让人对美欧自贸协定谈判的潜在负面影响抱有警惕了。毕竟，美欧是二战以来对国际经贸规则发展演变影响最大的两个经济体。

Of course,If the us and Europe in the doha round negotiations of the position requirement is the embodiment of fair and reasonable standard,Conform to the doha round"Development orientation",So the American and European the above strategies are also not a dose of poison.but,Since the 1990 s,In the tide of economic globalization, the biggest problem is that the income and burden distribution imbalance,Developing countries share global income too little,Undertake adjustment burden too much,Economic globalization and the two pillars of organization, the world trade organization and the international monetary fund rules itself is the problem,In the process of enforcing rules more problems.Many of the us and Europe that is the requirement to maintain the above negative characteristics,This can let a person to the us and Europe the fta negotiations with potential negative influence on the alert.After all,The us and Europe since world war ii is on international economic and trade rules affect the development and evolution of the two biggest economies.

　　希望美欧意欲为世贸组织谈判确立模板时记住，任何“发展”的成果都必须让尽可能广大的成员分享。假如对发展中国家谋求发展的合理需求掉以轻心，全球化进程未必没有全面逆转的可能，那将导致南北两败俱伤。19世纪末至20世纪初，经济全球化程度在许多指标上都远远超过今日。前事不忘，后事之师。

Hope to the us and Europe for the world trade organization (wto) talks to establish remember template,any"development"Results must be as far as possible let the members share.If the developing country seek reasonable demand lightly,Globalization is not necessarily no comprehensive reversal of may,That will lead to the civil internecine.The end of the 19th century to the early twenty century,Economic globalization degree in many indicators are far more than today.Experience is the best teacher,Experience is the best teacher.

　　(作者为商务部研究院研究员)

(The author is the ministry of commerce research institute researcher)