昨天，我国央行时隔8个月后重启正回购，引发了市场对国内短期流动性枯竭的担忧，而国外各主要国家的汇率又重启新一轮的贬值,英镑在过去两年贬值25%后，新年伊始兑美元又开始贬值5%，日元兑人民币近半年来也贬值了差不多两成，连利率高挺的澳洲联储昨天也表示将为放宽货币政策提供空间。发达国家新一轮的贬值趋势引发我国出口竞争力下降及通胀的隐忧。

yesterday,The central bank's after eight months after restart is repurchase,Cause the market to domestic short-term liquidity dried up concerns,The main countries and foreign exchange rate and restart a new round of devaluation,Pounds in the past two years after depreciation of 25%,At the beginning of the New Year the dollar began to depreciate 5%,The yen hit RMB half-year also fallen about twenty percent,Even the high interest rate's Australian fed yesterday also said it will provide space for easing monetary policy.The developed countries a new round of devaluation trend cause our export less competitive and the potential for inflation.

　　昨日，央行在时隔八个月后重启正回购操作，而自去年6月开始连续滚动操作的逆回购则首次缺席。

yesterday,The central bank in the eight months after restart is buyback operation,And since last year 6 month continuous rolling operation of the reverse repurchase is absent for the first time.

　　中国：紧缩压力骤增

China:Squeeze pressure surge

　　据央行网站公告显示，昨日央行在公开市场上以利率招标方式开展了期限为28天的正回购操作共300亿元，中标利率为2.75%，与往期相同期限的正回购操作持平，但仍略低于二级市场同期利率。分析人士指出，虽然本周到期逆回购量多达8600亿元，但由于目前市场上流动性非常宽松、拆借利率跌至历史低位，央行仍倾向于通过暂停逆回购对冲、启动正回购操作来回笼资金。

According to the central bank web site announcement,Yesterday the central bank in the open market interest rates in order to carry out the bidding deadline for twenty-eight days positive repurchase operation a total of $30 billion,The interest rate is 2.75%,And the same period to period of positive repurchase the same operation,But still slightly lower than the secondary market interest rates over the same period.Analysts pointed out that,Although is due this week reverse repurchase volume up to 860 billion yuan,But because at present the market liquidity is very loose/Lending interest rates fall to historic lows,Central bank still tend to through the pause reverse repurchase hedge/Start is buyback operation to the collection of receivables.

　　我国信贷收缩担忧来源于我国天量社会融资。1月份社会融资规模为2.54万亿，比上年同期多1.56万亿元，其中人民币新增贷款为1.07万亿，同比增长近50%。另外，1月M2同比增长15.9%。货币信贷数据同比增长大大超出预期，瑞穗证券亚洲公司首席经济学家沈建光昨天对本报记者表示，首先是由于1月份社会融资规模同比增长和环比增长分别为160%和70%，这种情况是罕见的；其次是主要受到约占社会融资规模50%以上的“影子银行”规模波动影响，如银行承兑汇票较前一个月增加一倍以上，表明信贷增速加快的动力主要来自于“影子银行”。依沈建光之见，1月份信贷快速扩张是不可持续的，急需对“影子银行”进行严厉管控，预计从2013年第一季度开始，货币环境将可能适度收紧。

Our country credit contraction worry comes from our country social financing amount of day.January social financing scale for 2.54 trillion,Than the same period last year more than 1.56 trillion yuan,The new loan for 1.07 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of nearly 50%.In addition,January M2 year-on-year growth of 15.9%.Currency credit data grew much faster than expected,Mizuho securities Asia chief economist ShenJianGuang to our reporter said yesterday,The first is due to social financing scale in January year-on-year growth and chain growth were 160% and 70% respectively,This kind of situation is rare;The second is the main social financing scale by accounts for about 50% of the"Shadow Banks"Scale fluctuations,Such as bank acceptance bill is one month before the above double,Shows that the credit growth accelerated power mainly comes from"Shadow Banks".In accordance with the ShenJianGuang opinion,In January the credit expansion is unsustainable,Need to"Shadow Banks"Strict control on,From the first quarter of 2013 is expected to start,Monetary environment may moderately tightened.

　　国际：货币竞相贬值

international:Currency devaluation race to

　　相比对我国货币紧缩的担忧，一些发达国家已爆发新一轮的货币战争,汇率竞相贬值。

Compared to China's monetary crunch,Some developed countries have already broke out a new round of currency war,Exchange rate depreciation are.

　　澳洲联储昨天公布其最新货币政策会议纪要表示，澳洲联储注意到财政紧缩措施和非采矿业企业景气状况构成拖累，如果必要,将为放宽货币政策提供空间。

Australia the fed yesterday released its latest monetary policy meeting minutes said,Australia the fed noticed that fiscal austerity measures and the mining enterprise business conditions constitute a drag,If necessary,Will provide space for easing monetary policy.

　　英国央行货币政策委员会委员威尔表示，近期英国的经济陷入停滞，而在过去两年贬值25%的英镑并未对出口造成很大的提振，因此这或许意味着英镑的名义汇率需要继续走低。欧洲央行行长德拉吉发言称2013年之初的经济形势是在恶化中，欧元汇率在发言之后下跌。

The bank of England's monetary policy committee will say,Recent British economy into a stagnant,In the past two years depreciation 25% of pounds to export did not cause a great boost,So this may mean that pound nominal exchange rate need continues to fall.The European central bank President JiFaYan Della said at the beginning of 2013, the economic situation is getting worse in,The euro fell after the speech.

　　从日本首相安倍晋三宣布一个开支增长计划，并要求日本央行扩大货币宽松政策之后，日元汇率已经在过去三个月中下跌了13%。过去半年来， 人民币对日元中间价8.04456.6791人民币,对日元升值约17%。

From the Japanese prime minister shinzo Abe announced a spending growth plans,And ask the bank of Japan after expanding the monetary easing,The yen has in the past three months dropped 13%.In the past half a year to, RMB against the yen middle rate 8.04456.6791 RMB,About 17% of the Japanese yen appreciation.

　　一些新兴经济体的货币在过去的5年中，对美元等主要货币曾经一度大幅度升值，但目前这些汇率大多都回到危机之前的水平。“只有人民币保持明显的升值趋势，但幅度不大。”联合国经济与社会事务部全球经济监测中心主任洪平凡昨天在接受本报记者采访时表示。

Some emerging economies, currency in the past five years,Other major currencies against the dollar once greatly appreciation,But now these rate mostly back to the level before the crisis."Only RMB keep obvious rise trend,But the scale is not big."The United Nations department of economic and social affairs, director of the center for global economic monitoring flood plain yesterday in an interview with our reporter said.

　　对中国影响：出口难 输入性通胀又抬头

China's influence on:Export difficult Input sex inflation and looked up

　　面对发达国家竞相贬值的汇率，我国的出口能力将因此受到进一步的挑战。比如受新年需求激增影响，我国1月份出口虽然同比增长25%，但环比增长却下降6%。鉴于今年全球经济前景仍具不确定性，未来出口依旧面临挑战。沈建光据此估计，我国进口增速将继续超过出口，2013年贸易顺差所占GDP比重将继续下降，人民币对美元的汇率将维持在6.2附近。

In the face of the developed countries to depreciation of the exchange rate,China's export capacity will have further challenges.Such as New Year by the surge in demand influence,In January in China export although year-on-year growth of 25%,But the link growth has fallen by 6%.In view of this year the global economic outlook remains uncertain,The future export still faces a challenge.ShenJianGuang accordingly estimation,Our country imports will continue to more than export,In 2013, the trade surplus of GDP will continue to decline,The exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar will remain in the near 6.2.

　　“发达国家的量化宽松和其他一些经济政策对新兴经济体和发展中国家肯定有负面的"溢出"效应。”洪平凡昨天在接受本报记者采访时表示。

"The developed countries of quantitative easing and other economic policy on emerging economies and developing countries must be negative"overflow"effect."Ordinary hong yesterday in accepting our newspaper reporter to interview said.

　　全球实施量化宽松政策，推升国际大宗商品价格，导致中国面临输入性通胀压力，“但中国政府正在采取措施，如扼制信贷快速增长引发的通胀压力。由此观之，2013年全年通胀将逐渐上升达3.0%左右。”沈建光表示。

Global implementation of the quantitative easing policy,An international commodity prices,Lead to China faces input sex inflationary pressure,"But the Chinese government is taking measures,Such as end credit rapid growth cause inflation pressure.covering,2013 annual inflation will gradually rise up to 3.0%."ShenJianGuang said.

　　新闻链接

News link

　　1月人民币有效汇率指数再创新高

January the effective exchange rate index hit a record high

　　昨日，国际清算银行公布的数据显示，2013年1月人民币实际有效汇率指数为111.83，较去年12月上涨1.53%，再次刷新自1994年该数据公布以来的新高。自去年10月起，人民币实际有效汇率已连续四个月上涨，累计涨幅达4.1%。

yesterday,The bank for international settlements figures showed,In January 2013 RMB real effective exchange rate index was 111.83,A 1.53% rise in December last year,Refresh again since 1994 by the data record high since.Since last October,RMB real effective exchange rate has been rising for four months,Cumulative increased by 4.1%.

　　1月人民币实际有效汇率指数再创新高，和近期日元的贬值不无关系。自安倍参选以来，日元对美元汇率已经在5个月的时间内贬值了超过20%。“如此短的时间内出现如此大幅度的贬值，实属罕见。” 招商银行总行金融市场部高级分析师刘东亮指出。

January RMB real effective exchange rate index hit a record high,And recent falling yen was related.Since Mr Abe has run,The yen against the dollar has been in 5 months time fallen more than 20%."Such a short period of time appear so declines in the dollar,rare." China merchants bank head office financial marketing senior analysts pointed out that LiuDongLiang.

　　在货币战争硝烟再起的情况下，人民币若继续升值对出口企业利润的影响或凸显。刘东亮认为， 日本政府这种对人为压低汇率贬值的绥靖政策，可能会引发一系列新的问题，比如亚洲的贸易摩擦将会上升，中国可能不会再让人民币继续升值，更多国家可能会群起效仿日本，以保护本国的出口部门。

In the currency war under the condition of smoke rise,RMB if continue to rise on export enterprise profit impact or highlights.LiuDongLiang think, The Japanese government to the artificially low exchange rate depreciation of the policy of appeasement,May cause a series of new problems,Such as Asia's trade friction will rise,China may not to let the yuan continue to rise,More countries may rise to follow Japan,In order to protect their own export department.

　　如果人民币波幅扩大，未来汇率的风险会逐步开始出现。鲁政委表示，这意味着企业要自己来管理汇率风险。“企业需要做相应的避险方案，而不是猜测人民币的升值和贬值。”

If the amplitude expand,The risk of future exchange rate will gradually began to appear.Lu zhengwei said,This means that the enterprise want oneself to manage the exchange rate risk."Enterprise need to do the corresponding hedge scheme,Not guess the yuan appreciation and depreciation."

　　也有分析认为，企业也可以借此机会调整产业结构。澳新银行高级经济师杨宇霆表示，汇率是一个影响出口的因素，但相对来说影响较小。

Have analyzed that,Enterprise can also take this opportunity to adjust the industrial structure.Australia bank senior economist YangYuTing said,Exchange rate is a influence factors of export,But relatively less affected.