从小国之间的“合纵”到大国之间的“连横”，自由贸易谈判(FTA)大有喧宾夺主之势。与WTO这样的多边体制不同，FTA的签订国正有意避开中国等新兴经济体，在新的“集团”内制定标准与规则。业内人士指出，面对挑战，中国需在提升自身国际竞争力与话语权、扩大内需市场等方面下功夫。

From small countries"union"To the powers"mongols",Free trade negotiations(FTA)A presumptuous guest usurps the host's role.Different from such multilateral system of The WTO,Signing of the FTA are eschewed in emerging economies such as China,In the new"group"Within a set of standards and rules.The personage inside course of study points out that,In the face of challenges,China needs to improve its international competitiveness and voice/Expanding domestic demand market, etc.

　　世界贸易组织（WTO）将名存实亡？

The world trade organization(The WTO)Will exist in name only?

　　自美欧高调宣布要在今年6月底前正式启动美欧双边自由贸易区（FTA）谈判后，综合之前跨太平洋伙伴关系协议（TPP）、欧盟在亚太地区的“自贸圈”，以发达经济体为主导，形式上“排除”新兴经济体的全球贸易格局雏形渐显。随着美欧等主导国将贸易发展重心从推动WTO下的多哈回合转移至发展地区FTA上，有评论认为，WTO这个贸易全球化里程碑式组织所面临的“空心化”危险正在加大，极可能成为下一个“空谈”的联合国贸发组织。

Since the high-profile announced in the us and Europe to officially launched before the end of June in the us and Europe bilateral free trade area(FTA)After the negotiation,The trans-pacific partnership agreement before(The TPP)/The eu in the asia-pacific region"Since the trade circle",Dominated by the developed economies,The form"To rule out"Global trade pattern emerging economies a prototype.As the us and Europe and other leading countries will trade development focus from driving under the The WTO's doha round on FTA transferred to the developing area,Critics think,Facing The WTO the milestone in the globalization of trade group"Hollowing out"Danger is stepping up,Is likely to be the next"Empty talk"The United Nations trade development organization.

　　WTO被“架空”

The The WTO was"overhead"

　　“FTA对WTO而言是补充作用，本身并不矛盾，但脱离纯经济利益考量，过度扩张就是问题，照目前趋势发展，5~10年后WTO被架空将成事实。”商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究部副主任、研究员白明直言。

"FTA is a supplement for the The WTO,Itself is not a contradiction,But out of pure economic self-interest,Excessive expansion is the problem,According to current development trend,5 ~ 10 years after The WTO was overhead will be into the truth."The ministry of commerce international trade and economic cooperation research institute, deputy director of the international market research/Bai Ming, a researcher at the truth.

　　所谓“过度扩张”，可以从发展FTA的初衷和对象定义。

The so-called"Excessive expansion",From the purpose of the development of FTA and the object definition.

　　对外经贸大学中国世贸组织研究院副院长屠新泉指出，从小布什政府时期开始，美国显露出热衷缔结FTA的势头，包括美洲国家的智利、巴拿马、秘鲁，亚洲的韩国、新加坡等，都出现在美国FTA“盟友”名单内。这些都属于贸易规模较小的国家，也是美国出于自身经贸条件，根据产业需求而作出的决定。

University of international business and economics, vice President of the China institute of wto TuXinQuan pointed out,The bush administration began as a child,Show love to conclude FTA momentum in the United States,Including the American country of Chile/panama/Peru,Asia, South Korea/Singapore, etc.,FTA in the United States"ally"list.These smaller countries belong to the trade,Is the United States for its own economic conditions,According to the industry demand and make a decision.

　　反观现今的美欧FTA、TPP，欧盟“避开”最大贸易伙伴中国，与韩国建立FTA的行为，中国银行战略规划部副总经理、研究所副所长宗良表示，“联合”的动机已不单纯。

In contrast, today's FTA in the us and Europe/The TPP,The European Union"To avoid the"Largest trade partner of China,The behavior of the FTA with South Korea,The bank of China deputy general manager of strategic planning/The deputy director of the institute ZongLiang said,"The joint"Motivation is not pure.

　　比如前身是跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定的TPP，宗良指出，自美国加入后就变了“味道”，2011年起，更加大了吸纳成员国力度，成员国数量更从最初的4个增加至11个，同时，成员国之间已达成FTA超过10个。即便如此，TPP仍在与包括日本在内的更多国家协商加入。“随着成员国数量增加，再有多边经贸问题，美国就可以放在此框架下商讨，还需要WTO干什么。”宗良说。

Such as formerly known as the trans-pacific strategic economic partnership agreement of the The TPP,ZongLiang pointed out,Since the United States to join was changed"taste",Since 2011,More big efforts in attracting members,More member quantity increased from the original four to 11,At the same time,To reach more than 10 FTA between member states.Even so,The The TPP is still in consultation with more countries, including Japan, to join."As the number of members increases,In multilateral economic and trade issues,The United States can under this framework to discuss,You also need to the The WTO."ZongLiang said.

　　欧盟则提出了将推动与贸易伙伴签署FTA作为拓展欧盟贸易增长新空间的重要途径。计划本身无从质疑，但宗良指出，一旦美欧FTA谈判执行，即意味着美国、欧洲的FTA伙伴借助美欧FTA及自身贸易联系，形成新的“贸易网”，WTO由此被“架空”。

The European Union put forward will push forward with trade partners signing FTA as an important way to expand new eu trade growth space.Don't doubt plan itself,But ZongLiang points out,Once the FTA negotiations in the us and Europe,Which means that the United States/Europe's FTA partners with the aid of FTA in the us and Europe and their trade ties,To form a new"Trade networks",The The WTO and is being"overhead".

　　贸易“冷战”现苗头

trade"The cold war"Now there

　　白明指出，美欧对待双边自贸区的态度之所以出现较明显变化，有两大原因。

Bai Ming pointed out that,Attitudes towards bilateral free trade area in the us and Europe appear more apparent change,There are two major reasons.

　　表面上是当下美欧深陷金融危机和经济衰退，为财政赤字、高失业和低增长所困，大张旗鼓执行FTA战略，能产生一定程度的创造贸易和贸易转移效应，以此吸引投资、创造就业、拉动经济，不失为摆脱经济困境的选择之一。

On the surface are the depths of the financial crisis and economic recession in the us and Europe,For the fiscal deficit/Mired in high unemployment and low growth,Execute FTA strategy,Can produce a certain degree of trade creation and trade diversion effect,In order to attract investment/To create jobs/Pull the economy,One option is to get rid of economic difficulties.

　　更深层次的原因则是其对全球化背景下现有多边自由贸易体系中，发达国家与发展中国家的得失此消彼长，以及多哈谈判陷入僵局、难有突破现实的不满而欲改弦更张。

The deeper reason is its existing multilateral free trade system under the background of globalization,Gain and loss of the developed countries and developing countries,And the doha round of negotiations are deadlocked/Difficult to have a break through reality dissatisfaction and to change tack.

　　不过，白明强调，即便被“架空”，WTO还是会存在的，最多是像宗良所说，失去当前制定贸易规则、解决贸易摩擦功能，沦为像联合国贸发组织一般旨在讨论基本贸易政策的组织。因此，相比之下，其对全球贸易格局的影响更值得关注，受访专家甚至一致担心会引发全球贸易“冷战”。

but,Bai Ming stressed,Even if is"overhead",The The WTO will still exist,Is the most like ZongLiang said,Loss of the current trade rules/To solve trade friction function,Falling like a United Nations trade development organization to discuss basic trade policies of the organization.so,By contrast,Its impact on global trade pattern deserves more attention,Even questioned the experts worry that could cause global trade"The cold war".

　　此处“冷战”并非指贸易上的完全隔绝，这显然不符合贸易全球化的大趋势。白明认为，此处的“冷战”更多是指贸易制度上的“势不两立”，是国家资本主义和市场资本主义的鲜明对垒。

here"The cold war"Does not mean completely cut off trade,This obviously does not conform to the trend of globalization of trade.Bai Ming think,Here is the"The cold war"The more refers to the trading system"The inevitable",Is a national capitalism and the market bright against capitalism.

　　白明指出，从美欧联合的国家体制就可看出，其排斥俄罗斯、中国、巴西等新兴经济体的意图十分明显。届时，世界贸易将分为两个格局。在屠新泉看来，此行为虽然阻挡了贸易全球化进程，甚至一定程度上磨灭了WTO项下多哈回合谈判的成绩，但若美欧继续按照现有模式搞“民间WTO”，“冷战”的结果似已不能避免。

Bai Ming pointed out that,As you can see united state system was in the us and Europe,Its rejection, Russia/China/Emerging economies such as Brazil's intention is very obvious.When the,The world trade pattern will be divided into two.It seems to TuXinQuan,Although this behavior blocks the process of the globalization of trade,Even partly vanished under the The WTO doha round negotiations,But if the us and Europe continue to according to the existing pattern"The folk of The WTO","The cold war"Seems to have the result of the unavoidable.