关于欧美自由贸易协定的前景近日出现了一片大肆夸张的宣传势头，特别当日前美国总统奥巴马发表国情咨后。支持者认为，这个协定能为欧美双方带来诸多好处，但实际上成本很可能会超过收益。最为重要的是，一个横跨大西洋的协议将削弱多边贸易，同时削弱如世界贸易组织这样的多边机构。

About the outlook for the European and American free trade agreement has emerged a wantonly exaggerated publicity momentum,Especially when a U.S. President barack Obama after his client.Supporters think,The agreement can bring many benefits to both sides,But in fact costs are likely to be more than benefits.The most important is,A protocol will weaken multilateral trade across the Atlantic,At the same time weaken multilateral institutions such as the world trade organization.

　　欧美自由贸易协定当然会通过加强贸易来为欧洲和美国带来益处。根据德国马歇尔基金会的评估，贸易障碍的移除，可能会将欧盟和美国的国内生产总值分别提高1900亿欧元和1000亿欧元。尽管这个数目不算小，但也不能算是大收益，因为仅仅分别占欧、美国内生产总值的1.5%和0.9%。就欧美自由贸易协定来说，最大的潜在收益是公司之间竞争力的加强，但这点很难量化。

Europe and the United States free trade agreement will, of course, by strengthening trade to bring benefit to Europe and the United States.According to the assessment of the German Marshall fund,Removal of trade barriers,May the gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union and the United States separately raise 190 billion euros and 100 billion euros.Although this amount is not small,But it is not a big gains,Because only respectively/Of 1.5% and 0.9% of GDP in the United States.As for Europe and the United States free trade agreement,Is the biggest potential gain competitive strengthen between companies,But it is hard to quantify.

　　农产品贸易是欧美双方最大的贸易障碍，欧盟对农产品有严格限制，而美国是全球最主要的农产品出口国家。最近，欧盟预算方案向未来七年的共同农业政策拨款约3700亿欧元。这一动作表明欧盟不会轻易开放农产品市场。然而，欧美自由贸易协定的最主要缺陷是它可能会掐灭实现多边贸易的希望，因为它不仅俘获了贸易官僚，也允许政策制定者忘却未完成的全球议程。当双边协定占据主导地位后，多边规则将失去其地位。

Agricultural trade is one of the largest barriers to trade both sides,The eu has strict limits on agricultural products,While the United States is the world's main exporters of agricultural products.recently,The eu budget for the next seven years of the common agricultural policy grants of about 370 billion euros.This action shows that the eu will not easily open markets for agricultural products.however,The main defects of Europe and the United States free trade agreement is put out it may be possible to achieve multilateral trade,Because it not only capture the trade bureaucrats,Also allows policymakers to forget the unfinished global agenda.When after the dominant of bilateral agreements,Multilateral rules will lose its status.

　　不可否认，美国和欧盟都在与更多的国家建立双边贸易协定，但欧美贸易协定是在错误的时间发送的错误信号。工业化国家和新兴市场之间潜在增长力的差距正在扩大，对欧盟和美国来说，正确的战略是深化与新兴市场的合作。

There is no denying that,The United States and the European Union are in with more countries to establish a bilateral trade agreement,But Europe and the United States trade agreement is sent at the wrong time wrong signals.Potential growth force between industrialized countries and emerging market gap is widening,For the European Union and the United States,The right strategic cooperation, deepen and emerging market.

　　（作者系德国经济研究所总裁，本文源自英国《金融时报》）

(The author is President of the German economy research institute,In this paper, from the UK[The financial times])