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2月出口增势趋稳--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-03-11

  3月8日,海关总署公布了今年前两个月的外贸数据。海关统计显示,2月份,中国进出口总值为2634.9亿美元,扣除汇率因素,增长1%。其中出口1393.7亿美元,增长21.8%,连续3个月保持两位数增长;进口1241.2亿美元,下降15.2%;贸易顺差152.5亿美元,去年同期为贸易逆差319.8亿美元。

On March 8,,The general administration of customs announced the first two months of this year's foreign trade data.Customs statistics show,In February,China import and export value of $263.49 billion,Excluding currency factors,Growth of 1%.$139.37 billion of exports,Growth of 21.8%,Double-digit growth for three consecutive month;Imported us $124.12 billion,Dropped by 15.2%;The trade surplus of $15.25 billion,For the trade deficit of $31.98 billion over the same period last year.

  分析人士认为,外需逐渐恢复拉动2月出口继续稳定增长。国际大宗商品价格回落叠加新一轮人民币被动升值,导致2月进口增速创13个月来新低,同时印证国内经济的弱复苏格局。

Analysts say,External demand on February exports continue to recover gradually pulled steadily.International commodity prices superposition of a new round of passive appreciation of the renminbi,In February import growth hit a 13-month low,At the same time support the domestic economy's weak recovery pattern.

  商务部部长陈德铭在全国两会期间举行的新闻发布会后表示,对今年的外贸形势审慎乐观。乐观是希望在去年6.2%的增幅上更好一些,审慎则是因为全球经济仍有不确定和系统性风险。

Minister of commerce Chen deming said at a news conference during the national two sessions,Cautiously optimistic about this year's foreign trade situation.Optimism is hope better in the last year's 6.2% growth,Prudence is because of the global economy remains uncertain and systemic risk.

  趋于乐观

Tend to be more optimistic

  从今年开始,海关总署公布的月度外贸数据格式有了变化。此前,一直公布量价以及增速数据,而自今年1月开始,增加了出口经理人指数、新增出口订单指数、出口信心指数以及出口企业综合成本指数等更能反映外贸质量和结构的考量因素。

Since the beginning of the year,The monthly trade figures released by the general administration of customs have changed format.after,Has been reported as well as the growth of data quantity and price,And since January this year,Increased export managers index/New export orders index/Confidence and export enterprise comprehensive cost index can reflect the quality of foreign trade and the factor of the structure.

  今年2月份有17个工作日,而去年同期有21个工作日。经季节调整法调整后,2月当月进出口总值同比增长13.5%,其中出口增长20.6%,进口增长6.5%。

There are 17 working days in February this year,And in the same period last year has 21 working days.Was adjusted by seasonal adjustment method,February month rose 13.5% from a total cost of the import and export,Export growth of 20.6%,Imports rose 6.5%.

  海关总署同时公布,2月份,中国出口经理人指数为38.2,较1月回升0.7,连续第3个月环比提升。

The general administration of customs announced at the same time,In February,China's export managers index was 38.2,A rebound in January 0.7,For a third consecutive month-on-month increase.

  大中型企业出口经理人指数有所回升。2月份,大、中、小型企业出口经理人指数分别为41.8、40.2、35.2,分别较上月提升1.1、1.8和回落0.2。

Large and medium-sized enterprises export managers index bounced.In February,big/In the/Small enterprises to export managers index is 41.8, respectively/40.2/35.2,Upgrade 1.1 last month, respectively/Dropped 1.8 and 0.2.

  出口经理人指数的连续回升,表明中国外贸出口走势正趋于乐观。

Export managers index for pick up,Shows that China's foreign trade export tendency is tend to be more optimistic.

  新增出口订单指数40.6、出口信心指数44.1、出口企业综合成本指数19.1,分别较1月回升0.1、1.2、1.2。

New export orders index is 40.6/Export the confidence index of 44.1/Export enterprises comprehensive cost index is 19.1,A rebound in January 0.1 respectively/1.2/1.2.

  反映出口综合成本同比增加的企业降至七成以下。调查结果显示,69%的企业反映出口综合成本同比增加,较上月回落1.5个百分点;25.1%的企业出口综合成本同比持平,5.9%的企业出口综合成本同比下降。

Reflect the comprehensive cost year-on-year increase of export companies to below seventy percent.According to the survey,69% of the enterprise reflect the comprehensive cost year-on-year increase exports,More fell 1.5% last month;25.1% of the comprehensive cost of the enterprises to export flat year-on-year,5.9% of the comprehensive cost of the enterprise exports fell.

  依然审慎

Remain cautious

  全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心对外经济部原部长张小济对国际商报记者说,这些指数更能反映外贸质量。这些指数的好转,表明今年外贸可以在去年“坏得不能再坏”的基础上微调、掉头。然而,偏悲观的判断成分依然来自欧洲,欧债危机引发的经济政治波动、工会游行等不可预计的潜在风险,还有意大利的不明形势,都像埋着的炸弹。

The CPPCC national committee/Foreign ministry of economic affairs under the state council development research center, the former minister Zhang Xiaoji to international business newspaper reporters,The index can reflect the quality of foreign trade.These index improved,Show that foreign trade last year in this year"Too bad to bad again"On the basis of fine-tuning/To turn around.however,Partial pessimistic judgment components still from Europe,The European debt crisis triggered by the economic and political volatility/The potential risk of union marches are unpredictable,And Italy's unknown situation,Like the bomb was buried.

  全国人大代表、江门金羚集团公司董事长潘皓炫也印证了上述判断。

The National People's Congress/Jiangmen Jin Ling group chairman of the board of directors of the company Pan Haoxuan also confirms the above judgment.

  他对国际商报记者表示,占销售总额60%的外销,1月同比约增11%,2月大概与去年持平。

He international business newspaper reporters,Accounting for 60% of total sales,January year-on-year increase about 11%,February about flat compared with last year.

  他说,欧洲是其海外市场之一,目前这一市场比较稳定。“从整个欧洲经济情况看,状况不是很好。但家电在欧洲是生活必需品,所以刚性需求还存在,并且欧洲家电支出的费用占当地收入的比重也不是很高,所以每年的需求不会受经济形势影响太大。”潘皓炫说,一台洗衣机也就卖三四百欧元,一般工薪阶层月收入在2000~3000欧元。

He said,Europe is one of the overseas market,The current market is stable."In the whole European economy,Situation is not very good.But the home appliances is the necessaries of life in Europe,So the rigid demand still exists,And European household spending costs accounted for the proportion of income is not high,So each year the requirements will not be affected by the economy too much."Pan Haoxuan said,A washing machine is sold or the euro,Generally working-class income in 2000 ~ 2000 euros.

  他说,欧洲市场早已度过扩张性需求阶段,基本都是更新换代性消费,因此销售量比较稳定。

He said,European market already through expansionary requirements phase,Basic it is upgrading consumption,So sales is stable.

  中东和东南亚市场则增长很快。“中东还没有受到金融海啸的影响,购买力也很强,市场增势比较好,这也是我们主要的增量。”潘皓炫说。

In the Middle East and southeast Asia market is growing fast."The Middle East is not affected by the financial tsunami,Purchasing power is very strong,Market growth is better,This is also our main increment."Pan Haoxuan said.

  海关统计表明,在与主要贸易伙伴双边贸易中,中国与美国、东盟增势良好。前两个月,中国与欧盟双边贸易增长3.2%、与日本下降8.2%,同期,与美国、东盟双边贸易分别增长14.8%和22%。此外,内地对香港双边贸易增长58.7%。

Customs statistics show that,In bilateral trade with major trading partners,China and the United States/The association of southeast Asian nations (asean) fared well.The first two months,China and the eu bilateral trade grew by 3.2%/And Japan fell by 8.2%,At the same time,With the United States/Asean bilateral trade grew by 14.8% and 14.8% respectively.In addition,Bilateral trade grew by 58.7% in China for Hong Kong.

  出口方面,中国对俄罗斯和南非出口增速分别为31.6%和61.4%,分别高于同期出口总体增速8个和37.8个百分点。

Export side,Growth in Chinese exports to Russia and South Africa were 31.6% and 61.4% respectively,Compared with the overall export growth is eight and 37.8% respectively.



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