从目前情况看，南美大豆产量大幅增长已成定局，随着港口拥堵情况的改善，下半年我国大豆进口数量将出现回升，本年度我国大豆进口量预计将在6000万吨左右，连续第九年保持增长态势，但同比增幅明显小于前几年。

Look from the current situation,South American soybean production growth has been a foregone conclusion,As the improvement of port congestion situation,In the second half of China's soybean import quantity will rebound,This year China's soybean imports are expected to be around 60 million tons,The ninth consecutive year keep growth momentum,But the year-on-year growth significantly less than in previous years.

　　3月进口豆预计到港400万吨

Port of bean is expected to import 4 million tons of 3 month

　　监测显示，由于2月份部分船期延迟到3月到港，导致3月进口大豆到港量高于此前预期。根据船期统计，3月份我国进口大豆到港量预计约400万吨，高于之前预期的350万～380万吨，但仍远低于上年同期（2012年3月）483万吨的到港量。

Monitor display,Due to the partial shipment delay in February to march to the port of destination,In march imported soybeans to port is higher than previously expected.According to schedule,China's soybean imports in March to the port capacity is about 4 million tons,Higher than expected before 3.5 million ~ 3.8 million tons,But it is still far lower than a year ago(In March 2012)4.83 million tons of quantity to the port.

　　3月份我国大豆原料供应依然偏紧。分地区来看，山东预计到货16船96万吨，江苏预计到货13.5船79万吨，广东预计到货16船60万吨，广西预计到货5船30万吨，天津预计到货7船42万吨，辽宁、福建预计各有6船36万吨到货，浙江预计到货1.5船9万吨，另外上海、秦皇岛预计各有1船6万吨到货。

In march, China's soybean raw material supply is still tight.Points regional terms,Shandong 16 is expected the arrival of the ship of 960000 tons,Jiangsu 13.5 ship of 790000 tons is expected the arrival of the goods,Guangdong 16 is expected the arrival of the ship of 600000 tons,5 in guangxi are expected the arrival of the ship of 300000 tons,Tianjin 7 is expected the arrival of the ship of 420000 tons,liaoning/Fujian is expected to have 6 ships, 360000 tons of the arrival of the goods,Zhejiang 1.5 ship of 90000 tons is expected the arrival of the goods,In addition to Shanghai/Qinhuangdao is expected to have 1, 60000 tons of the arrival of the ship.

　　由于2、3月份我国进口大豆到港数量较少，远低于上年同期水平，2012/2013年度前6个月进口大豆累计仅2640万吨左右，较上年度同期明显下降。从目前情况来看，南美大豆产量大幅增长已成定局，随着港口拥堵情况的改善，下半年我国大豆进口数量将出现回升，预计5月到港量将增至550万～580万吨，6月到港也将在500万吨左右。本年度我国大豆进口量预计将在6000万吨左右，较上年度略增，大豆进口连续第九年保持增长态势，但同比增幅明显小于前几年。

Because of the 2/China's soybean imports in March to the port number is less,Is far lower than the year-ago level,Six months before the 2012/2013 soybean imports only 26.4 million tons,From the same period last year declined obviously.From the current situation,South American soybean production growth has been a foregone conclusion,As the improvement of port congestion situation,In the second half of China's soybean import quantity will rebound,Is expected in May to port capacity will increase to 5.5 million ~ 5.5 million tons,June to Hong Kong will be around 5 million tons.This year China's soybean imports are expected to be around 60 million tons,A slightly increased last year,Soybean imports the ninth year in a row to maintain growth momentum,But the year-on-year growth significantly less than in previous years.

　　短期豆粕坚挺后市压力渐增

Short-term soybean meal a strong indication of pressure increasing

　　过去一周，国内豆粕现货价格延续小幅上涨态势，沿海地区成交价维持在4000元/吨以上。截至上周三，沿海地区43%普通蛋白豆粕出厂价为4000～4140元/吨，普遍较一周前上调40～80元/吨，涨幅大于前一周。其中，京津地区成交价4000～4050元/吨，日照地区4050～4080元/吨，大连地区4070元/吨左右，江浙地区4080～4120元/吨，华南沿海地区4080～4140元/吨。

In the past week,Domestic soybean meal spot prices continued modest gains momentum,Coastal areas prices remain above 4000 yuan/ton.As of last Wednesday,Coastal areas 43% of ordinary protein soybean meal factory price is 4000 ~ 4140 yuan/ton,Is generally raised 40 ~ 80 yuan/ton a week ago,Or more than one week before.Among them,The beijing-tianjin region clinch a deal valence is 4000 ~ 4050 yuan/ton,Rizhao region from 4050 to 4050 yuan/ton,Dalian area around 4070 yuan/ton,Jiangsu and zhejiang areas 4080 ~ 4120 yuan/ton,South China coastal areas 4080 ~ 4140 yuan/ton.

　　春节过后，国内豆粕现货价格整体高位趋升，目前较节前普遍上涨80～140元/吨，为去年11月以来最高水平，较去年同期高出近1000元/吨。受国际市场大豆价格持续上涨影响，过去一周库存不足的饲料企业及贸易商逢低补库，各地市场成交状况整体良好，个别地区放量。

After the Spring Festival,Domestic soybean meal overall high trending up spot prices,At present the first general rise in 80 ~ 140 yuan/ton,For the highest level since November last year,Nearly 1000 yuan/ton higher than last year.Influenced by international market soybean prices continue to rise,Over the past week inventory shortage of feed enterprises and traders on the dips,Around the market clinch a deal the condition overall is good,Individual regions measures.

　　过去一周，沿海地区工厂开机率逐渐提高。但由于部分工厂原料偏紧，且2、3月份进口大豆数量依然较少，低于正常压榨所需，后期开机水平将受到影响，国内豆粕现货供应偏紧局面暂难得到缓解，工厂提价意愿仍较强，短期内现货价格将保持高位震荡。4月份之后随着大豆到港量增加、工厂开机率提高，豆粕供应将增加。

In the past week,Factory machine gradually improve coastal area.But due to some factories raw materials is tight,And 2/In march, still less number of soybean imports,Below the normal pressing needs,The late boot level will be affected,Domestic soybean meal spot tight supply situation is difficult to ease,Factory price will remain strong,Spot prices will remain high and volatile in the short term.Increase in April after as soybean to the port/Factory to open up to,Soybean meal supply will increase.

　　春节过后，猪肉价格持续下跌，生猪养殖行业进入亏损期，养殖户补栏积极性较低，后期终端饲料需求也不乐观。另外，后期进口大豆成本降低及南美丰产大豆集中上市，也将进一步对豆类市场形成压力。因此，后市豆粕现货价格继续上涨的空间将较为有限，中长期走势不乐观。

After the Spring Festival,Pork prices continued to fall,Pig-breeding industry into losses,Farmers fill column of enthusiasm is low,Terminal late feed demand is not optimistic.In addition,Late cost reduction and high yield soybean concentrated South American soybean imports,Will also further to the beans market formation pressure.so,Afternoon meal spot prices continued to rise in the space will be limited,Medium and long term trend is not optimistic.

　　利多匮乏豆油仍将震荡下跌

The ledo deficient soybean oil will still shake down

　　过去一周，国内豆油现货价格窄幅波动，整体稳中略降。截至上周三，京津、日照地区一级豆油出厂价8500～8550元/吨，张家港地区8550～8600元/吨，宁波地区8750～8800元/吨，大连地区8650元/吨，基本与前一周持平；华南沿海地区8300～8350元/吨，下跌200元/吨左右；哈尔滨地区9000～9100元/吨，下跌100元/吨左右。

In the past week,Domestic soybean oil spot prices range-bound,Just drop in the stability of the whole.As of last Wednesday,The Beijing and tianjin/Rizhao area level of soybean oil factory price is 8500 ~ 8550 yuan/ton,Zhangjiagang region from 8550 to 8550 yuan/ton,Ningbo region from 8750 to 8750 yuan/ton,Dalian 8650 yuan/ton,Basic level with the week before;South China coastal areas 8300 ~ 8350 yuan/ton,Fell 200 yuan/tons;Harbin region from 9000 to 9000 yuan/ton,Fell 100 yuan/tons.

　　近期，巴西出口装运耽搁，美国大豆需求依然旺盛，支撑国际市场大豆价格不断走高，国内豆油价格受此支撑，跌势环比放缓，之前一周国内豆油价格普遍下跌250～300元/吨。

The recent,Brazil's export shipment delay,U.S. soybean demand remains strong,Support in the international market price rising,Domestic soybean oil prices by this support,Slide sequential moderation,The week before the domestic soybean oil prices fell from 250 ~ 300 yuan/ton.

　　目前来看，国内豆油市场利多匮乏，后市仍将震荡走低。首先，本年度南美大豆丰产已成定局及新年度美国大豆产量恢复预期，使得国际市场大豆价格中长期仍可能呈现下跌走势；其次，目前国内油脂供应充裕，尤其是棕榈油库存长期居高不下，随着开机率逐渐恢复，豆油供应增加，而节后油脂消费处于淡季，国内油脂库存将继续上升，进一步对现货价格形成压制；另外，从上周开始，国家持续向市场投放临储菜油，这也使得本已充裕的油脂市场供应压力进一步加大。

At the moment,Lack of domestic soybean oil market is bullish,Afternoon will shock slump.First of all,This year's South American soybean high yield is a foregone conclusion and new annual U.S. soybean production recovery expectations,Makes the international market long-term soyabean prices could still present declines;The second,The current domestic oil supply abundant,Especially the palm oil inventories remain high for a long time,As the open probability gradually restored,Soybean oil increased supply,After oil consumption in the off-season,Domestic oil inventory will continue to rise,Further to the spot price formation;In addition,Since last week,Countries continue to rape oil storage in the market,It also makes further intensify the pressure on already abundant supply of oil markets.