北半球谷物收获进入尾声而南半球种植季节临近，市场分歧开始加大。美国农业部月度供需报告（以下简称报告）出炉后，业内人士对于后市大豆价格和小麦价格仍有不同见解，而对于后市棉价和玉米价格的走势看法则较为一致：棉价主要取决于收储的情况，玉米价格将有可能演绎震荡走强的行情。

The northern hemisphere grain harvest into the end and the southern hemisphere planting season nears,Divergence of the market began to increase.The United States department of agriculture monthly report of supply and demand(Hereinafter referred to as the "report)After a,The personage inside course of study to the market outlook soybean prices and wheat prices still have different opinions,For the market outlook MianJia and corn prices trend view is more consistent:MianJia mainly depends on the collection and storage,Corn prices will likely deductive shock strengthening market.

　　一上QQ，就看到好友农夫的签名改成了“昨天晚上看到黄河了”，我不仅好奇地问他去哪儿玩了。“我的意思是看到12日美国农业部的报告数据，死心了！不到黄河不死心嘛”。他无奈地说。

A on QQ,He saw the farmer's signature to a friend"See the last night of the Yellow River",Not only did I curiously ask where he play."I mean to see 12 report data of the United States department of agriculture,dispointment!Don't give up hope, less than the Yellow River".He helplessly said.

　　农夫是他的QQ昵称，他的真名叫廉超，是新湖期货有限公司的分析师。

The farmer is his QQ nickname,His real name is water super,New futures co., LTD. Is the analysts.

　　短期提振

Short-term boost

　　“豆类的调整是最牵动人心的”。廉超告诉我。

"Beans adjustment is the most exciting affects".Water super told me.

　　大豆是个痛，大家都心知肚明。外资巨头全产业控制中国大豆，而且国内大豆进口量价仍然在攀升。

Soybean is a pain,Everyone knew.Foreign capital giant whole industry control China's soybean,And domestic soybean imports price is still rising.

　　海关数据显示，2012年9月，中国进口大豆数量497万吨，金额3，228，476千美元。1~9月，中国进口大豆累计数量4，430万吨，金额25，539，590千美元。数量累计比去年同期增长17.7%，金额累计比去年同期增长18.1%。“是个疼啊，我等了它半个月，看到后就死心了。”廉超说。“有人说这将提振国产大豆价格，你看空？”我疑惑地问道。“怎么提振啊？单产调了那么多，大豆的产量一下子就增了几百万吨，全球贸易的可供应量也增加了几百万吨。大家之前基本确定了低单产，没想到8月的雨使得单产上调了，之前大家觉得7月末就定产了。”“之前总拿大旱说事，看来是炒作因素？”我问。“也不是炒作”。他表示否定。

Customs data display,In September of 2012,China imported 4.97 million tons of soybeans quantity,Amount 3,228,476000 dollars.1 ~ 9 months,China's imports of soybean cumulative number 4,4.3 million tons,Amount 25,539,590000 dollars.Total quantity than last year the corresponding period grows 17.7%,Total amount than last year the corresponding period grows 18.1%."Is a painful ah,I waited for it half a month,After see dispointment."Water super said."Some say this will boost domestic soybean prices,You see an empty?"I doubt asked."How to boost ah?Yield up so much,Soybean yield was increased a few million tons,Global trade can supply also increases the millions of tons.Before you determine the basic low yield,Didn't expect August rain makes the per unit area yield raised,Before you think it by the end of July DingChan the.""Always take great drought before the move,It seems to be hype factors?"I asked."Also not hype".He doesn't.

　　但是，同属新湖期货旗下的另一位分析师苗瑾则认为，“本期报告的数据说明此前市场对于干旱导致的减产过于严重”。

but,Belong to new futures its another analysts argue that MiaoJin,"This report that the data after the market for drought lead to the reduction of too serious".

　　报告出炉后，大豆和豆类产品价格是否得到了短期提振呢？我继续与分析师们聊了起来。

After the report,Soybeans and soy products price whether the short-term boost it?I will continue to work with the analysts chat up.

　　新纪元期货研究所农产品（000061）分析师王成强告诉我：“市场不会轻易放弃历史性高位价格赐予的历史性抛空机会。报告尘埃落定以后，豆类价格呈现"一日游行情"，超跌反弹仅昙花一现，从技术上来说，1500美分/蒲式耳告破，失手半年线即牛熊分界线”。

A new era of agricultural products futures institute(000061)Analysts WangChengJiang told me:"The market does not give up easily historic high price give the historical short opportunity.Report after the dust settled,Beans price present"One-day tour market",Super rebound fell only a flash in the pan,Technically speaking,1500 cents per bushel crack,Miss line half a year that NiuXiong demarcation line".

　　光大期货农产品高级分析师王娜也表示了类似的看法：“报告公布当天美豆、玉米价格大涨，原因是报告中库存消费比处于历史低位。”

Everbright futures agricultural senior analysts WangNa also expressed a similar view:"The report released by the beautiful bean/Corn prices rose,The reason is the report inventory consumption than at historic lows."