4月，我国外贸数据依然沿袭了一季度的态势，仅从数据来看，十分靓丽。

In April,Situation of China's foreign trade data still follows in the first quarter,Only from the point data,Is very beautiful.

　　据海关总署昨日（5月8日）发布数据显示，4月出口同比增长14.7%，进口增长16.8%，大幅超出市场预期，当月顺差为181.6亿美元。

According to the general administration of customs yesterday(On May 8,)Released data show,Exports rose 14.7% year-on-year in April,Imports rose 16.8%,Greatly exceed market expectations,Surplus of $18.16 billion during the month.

　　多位分析师告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，4月出口较好除了中国商品在国际上较有竞争力外，去年4月出口数据基数较低以及今年4月份工作日增多是原因之一。

Analysts told[The daily economic news]reporter,Exports in April is good except for the Chinese goods more competitive in the world,In April last year exports data base is relatively low and increased in April this year, working day is one of the reasons.

　　港口吞吐量远低贸易额增幅

Port throughput is much lower volume growth

　　尽管上述提到的原因可以支撑4月外贸数据较为强劲，但多数研究者认为理由还不够充分，外贸数据与实际货物流量存在着一定背离，不能排除热钱通过贸易方式入境套利。

Despite the above mentioned reasons can support foreign trade data is relatively strong in April,But most researchers think that reason is not sufficient enough,Foreign trade data and actual cargo flow there is a certain deviation,Cannot be ruled out hot money immigration arbitrage by way of trade.

　　最大的疑点，来自海关总署统计的外贸数据与交通部统计的主要进出口港口货物吞吐量，在增速上存在较大的差距。尽管港口4月份的吞吐量数据还未发布，但从一季度数据来看，这种落差已然成型。交通运输部的数据显示，3月全国规模以上港口外贸货物吞吐量2.72亿吨，同比增7.3%；集装箱吞吐量1529.03万标箱，同比增7.1%。而海关统计的3月份数据，进出口同比增速达到12.1%。

The biggest benefit of the doubt,From the general administration of customs statistical data of foreign trade and department of transportation's main import and export port cargo throughput,There is a big gap in growth rates.Although the port throughput data has not been released in April,But in the first quarter data,This gap is forming.According to the ministry of transport,In march the national foreign trade cargo throughput of 272 million tons above designated size,Up 7.3% year-on-year;Container throughput of 15.2903 million teus,Up 7.1% year-on-year.The customs statistics data in March,Import and export of year-on-year growth 12.1%.

　　澳新银行报告称，中国各大港口的吞吐数据均出现明显下降，采购者经理指数中的新出口订单也明显下滑，这些都与走强的贸易数据形成了鲜明的反差。

Anz said the report,China's largest port throughput data all appear to drop significantly,Purchasing managers index for new export orders also decline significantly,These are all with strong trade data to form bright contrast.

　　事实上，3月外贸数据就被业界所质疑。尽管内地出口香港总值占总出口值之比已经从3月份的26.55%历史超高位回落到了4月份的21.10%；对香港出口同比增速也由3月份的92.9%跌落至4月份的57.08%，几乎“腰斩”。但王宇雯仍表示，这一比值远超历史平均的15%-17%，在美、日、欧等海外发达经济体终端需求弱复苏的大背景下，内地对中国香港地区的中转贸易需求短期内不可能如此大幅度的增长。

In fact,,March trade figures are being questioned by the industry.Despite the total mainland exports to Hong Kong the ratio of the total exports has historical the elevated from 26.55% in March fell to 21.10% in April;Year-on-year growth in exports to Hong Kong also falling by 92.9% in March to 57.08% in April,almost"ks".But still Wang Yuwen said,This ratio is far off the average 15% to 17%,In the United States/day/Overseas developed economies such as the end demand under the background of weak recovery,Transit trade demands in the mainland to Hong Kong, China could not have such a large growth in the short term.

　　人民币升值致热钱入境套利

RMB appreciation cause hot money from entering arbitrage

　　港口吞吐量与外贸额增幅为何出现如此大的落差？

Port throughput and increase its why so big gap?

　　中信证券首席经济学家诸建芳表示，基于避险需求增加的因素，很多资金需要寻找有更高回报的地方，像我国这样的新兴市场比较有机会。而“借道”贸易是其途径之一。这些资本通过报高价格的方式进来，另外出口还牵扯到退税，这是为什么出口数据出现虚增的原因所在。

Citic securities chief economist ZhuJianFang said,Based on safe-haven demand factors,A lot of money to look for somewhere with higher returns,Emerging markets like China. Have a better chance.while"through"Trade is one of the ways.These capital through to quote high price,In addition also involve tax refund for export,This is why the export figures appear inflated.

　　上述不愿具名人士称，热钱流入中国最直接的方式就是向出口企业虚报进口价格，选择类似贵金属以及集成电路等体积小、便于运输和仓储成本低的商品使得以美元为主的大量外币流入中国。

The above declined to be named said,Hot money flows into China is the most direct way to export enterprise false import prices,Choose small size such as precious metals as well as the integrated circuit/Easy to transport and storage and low cost of goods make give priority to with the dollar amounts of foreign currency into China.

　　交行报告称，近期人民币实际有效汇率的持续单边升值，也在一定程度上强化了市场上普遍存在的“热钱借道流入-人民币升值-热钱借道流入”这一适应性预期。昨日美元对人民币中间价报6.1980，人民币大幅升值103个基点，首次突破6.2关口再创汇改以来新高。

Bocom report,Recent continued unilateral appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate,Also to a certain extent, to strengthen the common on the market"Hot money through into the appreciation of the renminbi - through hot money inflows"This adaptive expectations.Yesterday the dollar against the yuan central parity rate at 6.1980,The yuan to rise sharply to 103 basis points,For the first time since the 6.2 mark to earn foreign exchange to new highs.

　　目前，这一现象已引起监管层重视。国家外汇局刚刚出台的一项政策明确，对资金流与货物流严重不匹配或流入量较大的企业，要求其在10个工作日内说明情况。企业未及时说明情况或不能提供证明材料并作出合理解释的，外汇局将依相关规定，将其列为B类企业，实施严格监管。

At present,This phenomenon has attracted regulatory attention.The safe has just introduced a policy clear,For cash flow and goods flow serious don't match or inflow larger enterprises,To show a case within 10 working days.The enterprise did not give more details in a timely manner or not provide evidence and make a reasonable explanation,Safe will be in accordance with the relevant provisions,Will it as a class B,Strict supervision.

　　显而易见，通过货物贸易途径流入热钱会加大中国的顺差，继而推高人民币升值压力，这不利于中国出口企业的利益，也不符合人民币正常的币值水平。上述外贸专家认为，如果外管局新政见效，中国出口会在5月以后回归至10%左右的“真实水平”。

obvious,Through the trade flows of goods will increase China's surplus,Which in turn pushed up the RMB appreciation pressure,This goes against the interests of the export enterprises in China,Also do not accord with the value of the renminbi to normal level.The foreign trade experts say,If the safe work of the New Deal,Will China's exports in May later return to around 10%"True level".