中国4月贸易数据8日公布，显示该月进出口数据均明显高于市场预期，出口同比增长14.7%，高于上月的10.0%以及市场预期值9.2%；进口同比增长16.8%，高于上月的14.1%，也明显高于市场预期。

Chinese trade figures 8, announced in April,Import and export data shows the month were significantly higher than market expectations,Exports rose 14.7% year-on-year,Up from 10.0% last month, and market expectations of 9.2%;Imports grew by 16.8% year on year,Up from 14.1% last month,Is significantly higher than market expectations.

　　面对这样的数据，市场的反应并非一片叫好，而是质疑声高。先前一天公布的台湾贸易数据进出口均为负增长，本月1日公布的韩国贸易数据也表现低迷，中国的贸易表现出色，却很大程度上需要被解读为“热钱流入”导致的“被增长”。

In the face of such data,The market reaction is not a favour,But doubts.Import and export of Taiwan's trade figures released by the previous day are all negative,South Korea's trade data released this month 1, also dull,China's trade performance,But largely need to be interpreted"Hot money inflows"Due to the"Be growth".

　　背后的原因很简单。对外贸易是与其他人做生意，你的出口多了，那么别人的进口就会增加，反过来也是如此。

The reason behind is simple.Foreign trade is to do business with other people,Do you export,What imports will increase,The opposite is also true.

　　既然台湾和韩国的出口表现并不好，那么中国的出口增速来自何方呢？

Since Taiwan and South Korea's export performance is not good,China's export growth come from?

　　答案是香港。4月中国与香港的贸易同比增长了55%，而对世界其他地区则同比增长了12%。同时，尽管4月份中国出现了贸易顺差，但刨除香港后，中国对世界其他地区竟然出现了200亿美元的贸易逆差，这也从另一方面反映了香港在中国贸易版图的独特地位。

The answer is in Hong Kong.China and Hong Kong April trade rose 55% year-on-year,While the rest of the world rose 12% year-on-year.At the same time,Although China a trade surplus in April,But after excluding Hong Kong,China to the rest of the world had a $20 billion trade deficit,It is on the other hand, reflects the unique status in China trade map of Hong Kong.

　　从内地来看，中国多数的贸易增长来自于广东/深圳口岸，对手方则主要是香港。由于这样的贸易主要通过陆路完成，由此产生了一个有趣的现象：港口吞吐量数据几乎没有明显的增长，但贸易总量却快速上升。中国主要港口之一的宁波港在4月份的吞吐量为个位数增长，与整体贸易表现的脱节也十分明显。

From the mainland,Most of China's trade growth from guangdong/port of shenzhen,Counterparties are mainly in Hong Kong.Because of this trade is mainly completed by land,Creating an interesting phenomenon:Port throughput data almost no significant growth,But rapidly rising trading volume.One of China's main port of ningbo port throughput for single-digit growth in April,The disconnect with the overall trade performance is also very obvious.

　　另外一个值得玩味的现象是，内地对香港的出口非常高，但香港从内地的进口却没有什么明显的反应，那么这又是为什么呢？

Another phenomenon is worth pondering,Mainland exports to Hong Kong is very high,But import Hong Kong from the mainland have no obvious reaction,So this is why?

　　中国海关的解释是，内地的一些出口商在向海关作出口申报的时候，由于不了解这个货物下一步流向的安排，所以他们就会将出口货物目的地申报为香港，这样这些货物 （很可能是货物的转运，transshipments）就列入了内地对香港的出口统计，由此也产生了中港两地的贸易统计差异。

Is the interpretation of the Chinese customs,Some mainland exporters when declare at customs for export,Due to the arrangement of don't know this goods to flow to the next,So they will export destination for Hong Kong,So these goods (May is the transport of the goods,transshipments)Statistics on the mainland exports to Hong Kong,This has also had a trade statistics difference between Hong Kong and the mainland.

　　笔者承认，中港之间的贸易统计差异客观存在，但这样的差异并不是突然产生，为何越来越多的出口商突然“不清楚”其贸易目的地？

The author admits that,Hong Kong trade between statistical difference is objective existence,But the difference is not of a sudden,Why more and more exporters suddenly"Don't know"Its trade destination?

　　数据分析显示，中港之间的贸易差异从2012年初开始扩大，在过去的十几个月中差距越来越大，在此期间唯一的政策变化是人民币跨境贸易平台的推进，以及人民币国际化的进一步深化。

Data analysis showed that,Hong Kong trade between difference from early 2012 began to expand,In the past ten months gap is more and more big,During this period of renminbi cross-border trade platform is the only policy changes,As well as the further deepening of the internationalization of the yuan.

　　在调研中，笔者发现，很多企业在利用境内外的利差来进行套利——他们在境内存入人民币，在境外进行人民币贷款，由于境外人民币贷款成本低于境内人民币存款利率，这样一种做法可以轻松套利。此后，企业可以通过人民币跨境贸易平台将境外用低息拆借的人民币输入境内，并将资金存入境内银行。此外，企业也可以通过虚报出口数据，将更多的资金转入境内市场。这种做法事实上虚增了中国的出口，增加了国内的流动性，并提高了企业的杠杆率。在这个过程中，很多企业也在资产和负债端进行“期限错配”来放大收益。

In the research,The author found that,Many enterprises in the use and spread to carry - they deposit in RMB,The yuan in overseas loans,Due to the offshore yuan loan cost is lower than the domestic RMB deposit interest rate,Such an approach can easily carry.Since then,Enterprise can through the RMB cross-border trade platform use overseas cheap borrowing in the input,And deposited the money in the bank within the territory.In addition,Companies can also by over-invoicing exports data,Will be more capital into the domestic market.This practice actually inflated the export of China,Increased domestic liquidity,And increase the leverage of the firm.In the process,Many companies are also on the assets and liabilities"Maturity mismatch"To amplify returns.

　　笔者也发现，中国的保税区贸易在过去的两个季度中大幅增长，其占全部贸易的比重也明显上升。同样，中国的贸易政策并没有发生重大转变，那么为什么更多的贸易在保税区内产生呢？是否存在着通过保税区“一日游”来骗取出口退税的可能性呢？

The author also found that,China's bonded zone trade increased significantly in the past two quarters,The proportion of its total trade is rising significantly.The same,China's trade policy is not a major change,So why more trade in the bonded area to produce?If there is a through the bonded area"A day trip"The possibility of to defraud a tax refund for exports?

　　在这个过程中，中国也开始面临更加严峻的资本流入。今年1-2 月，金融系统所持有的外汇占款增加了将近1万亿美元，而去年全年仅为4950亿美元。大规模的资本流入事实上抵消了央行收紧流动性的操作，也导致市场利率出现明显下降，并鼓励了信贷增长。资本流入也造成了人民币的升值压力，人民币的不断升值与出口订单的大幅下滑，将进一步加剧实体经济的产能过剩压力，造成做实体经济投资回报率越来越低，企业更热衷于金融套利，中国的虚拟经济被越吹越大。

In the process,China also began to face a more serious capital inflows.This year 1 to 2 month,Financial system, an increase of nearly $1 trillion holdings of foreign exchange,But only $495 billion for all of last year.Massive capital inflows in fact is offset by the operation of the central bank to tighten liquidity,Also prompted a significantly lower market interest rates,And to encourage the credit growth.Capital inflows also contributed to the RMB appreciation pressure,A strengthening yuan and a sharp drop in export orders,And the real economy will worsen overcapacity,Do the real economy is lower and lower rate of return on investment,Companies keen to financial arbitrage,Chinese virtual economy is the blew up.

　　中国监管当局也意识到这一现象的严重性，国家外管局在上周末出台新规，监管通过贸易渠道流入境内的热钱。但这个新政到底能有什么效果，仍然存在较大的疑问。

Chinese authorities are aware of the seriousness of this phenomenon,National safe's new rules at the weekend,Regulation through trade channels to inflow of hot money.But the New Deal can have what effect,There is still a big question.

　　从政策角度来说，目前在金融套利驱使下的实体经济活动，反映出企业正在更多转向金融活动来赚取利润，这在长期将带来产业空心化的风险。

From a policy standpoint,In the current financial arbitrage driven by real economic activity,Reflect the enterprise is more towards the financial activities to make a profit,This will lead to industry hollowing out of the long term.

　　短期来看，中国的政策制定者应该对贸易状况有更加准确的了解。由于贸易增速并不像数据显示得那样强劲，中国央行也不应允许人民币过度走强。中长期来看，在开放资本账户之前，中国仍然应该加快境内利率市场化的改革步伐，加强商业银行之间的竞争，做大做深外汇和资本市场。

In the short term,China's policymakers should have a more accurate understanding on trade conditions.Due to the trade growth is not as strong as data showed,China's central bank also should not allow the yuan too strong.Medium and long term view,Before opening capital account,Still should speed up the pace of market-oriented interest rate reform in China,To strengthen the competition among commercial Banks,Do big do deep foreign exchange and capital markets.

　　从政策配套来看，目前的外贸和外资政策急需改革。事实上，中国的外贸政策的核心仍然是鼓励出口，但对于中国目前这样一个已经拥有3万亿美元外汇储备的国家来说，过度青睐出口的政策取向已经显得过时了。

From the policy supporting,The current foreign trade and foreign investment policies are in urgent need of reform.In fact,,The heart of China's foreign trade policy is still encourage exports,But in China is such a country already has $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves,Excessive favor the policy orientation of export has become out of date.