10万亿美元，约为德国国内生产总值（GDP）的3倍，这将是未来五年中国的进口额。当中国国家主席习近平不久前在博鳌亚洲论坛宣布这一数字时，国际观察人士都清楚它的分量。在全球贸易格局和游戏规则面临剧变的当下，有此筹码的中国在世界大棋局中是进还是退？

Us $10 trillion,About German gross domestic product (Gross domestic product)(Gross domestic product)Three times as much,This will be the next five years China's imports.When Chinese President xi jinping in boao Asia BBS recently announced the figure,International observers know its weight.Confronted with upheaval in global trade patterns and the rules of the game,Of China have the chips in the world big game is to advance or retreat?

　　从外贸规模上看，中国近年在全球贸易份额的阶梯上不断攀升。初步统计显示，2012年，中国已经超越美国，以3.87万亿美元居全球商品贸易总额排行之冠。同时，中国积极参与多边和双边谈判，在国际贸易舞台上的发言权逐渐增大。然而，有专家认为，在激烈博弈的21世纪国际贸易规则制定权的沙场上，中国却面临巨大挑战，甚至有被边缘化的危险。

From the point of view of foreign trade scale,China's share in global trade in recent years to climbing the ladder.Preliminary statistics show that,In 2012,,China has already surpassed the United States,With $3.87 trillion in the world commodity trade ranking.At the same time,China actively participate in multilateral and bilateral negotiations,Voice in the international trade arena gradually increased.however,Some experts think that,In the intense game of the 21st century international trade rules set right on the battlefield,China faces huge challenges,There were even in danger of being marginalized.

　　最大的压力来自美国。在多哈回合僵局难解、世界贸易组织势弱的情况下，美国作为全球第一大经济体，正以《跨太平洋(601099,股吧)战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）和《跨大西洋(600558,股吧)贸易和投资伙伴关系协定》（TTIP）为两大支柱，在太平洋和大西洋两翼，构筑美国主导的21世纪全球贸易新格局。在纷繁复杂的国际贸易双边和多边关系中，美国此举之重要性不言而喻。

The biggest pressure from the United States.In the doha round impasse/The world trade organization is weak,As the world's largest economy in the United States,Is to[Across the Pacific(601099,stocks)Strategic economic partnership agreement](The TPP)and[Across the Atlantic(600558,stocks)Trade and investment partnership agreements](TTIP)For the two pillars,In the Pacific and Atlantic wings,Build the leading new pattern of global trade in the 21st century.在纷繁complicated的国际贸易双边and多边关系中,The importance of it is self-evident.

　　谁制定规则，谁掌控未来。TTIP将联结美国和欧盟两大发达经济体，其GDP总量和贸易额分别占全球一半以及三分之一以上。欧美自贸区利用自身在国际贸易中的制高点，进一步推进全球贸易新规则的制定，应对包括中国在内的新兴市场国家的崛起。TPP则在美国“重返亚洲”的大战略下，以安全带经贸，意在使亚太地区稳定于新秩序之下。北京大学国际关系学院王勇教授认为，显而易见，美国的TPP战略是针对中国。

Who make the rules,Who control the future.TTIP will join the United States and the European Union's two big advanced economies,Its Gross domestic product and trade volume respectively more than a third and half of the world.Europe and the United States free trade area using its commanding heights in international trade,Formulated to further advance of the new global trade rules,To cope with the rise of emerging market countries, including China.The The TPP is in the United States"Return to Asia"Under the strategy of,With seat belts business,To make the stability in the asia-pacific region under the new order.Think of international relations at Peking University professor wang yong,obvious,The The TPP strategy is aimed at China.

　　美国前国务卿希拉里·克林顿一年半前就提出，美国将更新外交政策的优先顺序，以经济优先取代反恐优先，巩固其战略领导地位。有学者将此喻为：“美国的外交火箭，过去携带的是炸弹，今后将携带"美国货"”。

Former us secretary of state Hillary Clinton proposed a year and a half ago,The United States will update foreign policy priorities,In order to economic priority replace the priority,Consolidate its strategic leadership.Some scholars as this:"U.S. foreign rocket,Used to carry a bomb,In the future will bring"American"".

　　由内因来看，中国尽管摘下世界最大商品贸易国桂冠，但以往低水平、高排放的“中国制造”已经到了亟待升级的当口。能否顺利转型，实现由量到质的飞跃，成为决定中国外贸乃至整个经济可持续发展的关键。

Internal view,Despite China won the world's largest commodities trader,But the previous low levels/High emissions"Made in China"Have reached the time when need to be upgraded.Smooth transition,Realize the leap from quantity to quality,Is key to China's foreign trade and the key to the sustainable development of the economy as a whole.

　　中短期而言，世界主要经济体在债务重压下增长乏力的趋势难改，大国竞合的潮流不变。而中国巨大的市场需求、超越同侪的成长前景，以及经济转型打开的想象空间，都是参与国际贸易规则谈判的筹码。天时地利已具，中国须巧用经济成长的势能，化外压为内力，成为全球贸易新一轮格局重构的重要参与者。

Medium term,The world's major economies in debt under the weight growth trend is difficult to change,Big competition trend remains the same.And the huge market demand in China/超越同侪的Grow up前景,Open economic transformation and the imagination of space,Are involved in international trade rules bargaining chip.Right place, right time already,中国须巧用经济Grow up的势能,Outside pressure for internal force,Become the important participants in a new round of global trade pattern reconstruction.