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贸易顺差现象向发达国家蔓延--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2013-05-17

  英国巴克莱集团8日发表《全球贸易发展现状》报告称,后金融危机时期,全球贸易增长明显放缓,贸易失衡程度缩小,贸易顺差现象正向发达国家蔓延。

Britain's barclays PLC. 8[Global trade development present situation]According to the report,After the financial crisis,Global trade growth slowed sharply,Trade imbalances narrowed,Trade surplus phenomenon is spreading in the developed countries.

  数据显示,发达经济体(日本除外)出口占国内生产总值(GDP)的整体比重,去年年底达31.2%,超过2008年金融危机前曾创出的30.6%的历史高点;而同期进口占GDP的比重为15.5%,较金融危机前16.7%的高点下降了1.2个百分点。新兴经济体出口占GDP的整体比重为33.1%,较金融危机前创下的39.4%峰值收缩了6.3个百分点;同期进口占GDP的比重达30.1%,较金融危机前33.5%的峰值小幅收缩了3.4个百分点。

According to data,Developed economies(Except for Japan)Export of gross domestic product(Gross domestic product)The proportion of overall,At the end of last year was 31.2%,More than 2008 years before the financial crisis has hit an all-time high of 30.6%;Compared with imports as a share of Gross domestic product is 15.5%,Was down 16.7% from highs of 16.7% before the financial crisis.Emerging economies for 33.1% of the total export of Gross domestic product as a whole,Than before the financial crisis hit a peak of 39.4% contraction of 6.3%;Imports as a share of Gross domestic product of 30.1%,A peak of 33.5% in the past financial crisis shrank slightly by 3.4%.

  报告认为,后金融危机时期,欧美公共部门和私营部门去杠杆化严重制约了内需发展,致使进口需求下降,主要靠扩大国际市场需求维持经济增速;而新兴经济体政府应对金融危机的措施促进了国内需求的增长,导致新兴经济体经济增速远超出口增速。数据显示,2007年至2012年期间,新兴经济体经济累计扩张72%,同期出口只扩张55%;相反,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)成员国同期GDP增长11%,出口却增长了17%。

According to the report,After the financial crisis,Europe and the United States in the public sector and private sector deleveraging badly hamper the development of domestic demand,The import demand,Mainly rely on expanding the international market demand to maintain economic growth;And emerging economies to tackle the financial crisis government measures to promote the growth of domestic demand,Lead to economic growth in emerging economies than export growth.According to data,During 2007 to 2012,Economy to expand 72% in emerging economies,Export expansion of only 55% over the same period;instead,The organization for economic cooperation and development(The OECD)Members in the same period Gross domestic product growth of 11%,Exports have increased by 17%.

  巴克莱指出,金融危机后的最大变化是,欧洲从重要的贸易逆差地区变成了有小规模顺差的地区。这并不是因为欧洲产品在全球市场份额扩大了,而是由于欧债危机严重压制了该地区的需求,欧元区进口增速降低,甚至出现负增长。全球经济一体化趋势致使各区域间的贸易关联度大幅增强,欧元区进口的萎靡已对其他经济体产生负面影响。(陈听雨)

Barclays said,After the financial crisis is the biggest change,Europe from a significant trade deficit region into a small surplus.It's not that European products in global market share expanded,But because the European debt crisis seriously suppress the needs of the region,The eurozone import growth is reduced,There are even negative growth.The global economy integration trend correlation degree has been a sharp increase in trade between various regions,The weak eurozone imports is has a negative impact on other economies.(Chen rain)



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