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煤炭进口利弊共存--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-05-23

  海关总署5月8日发布的数据显示,今年前4个月,我国累计进口各种煤炭1.1亿吨,较去年同期增加25.6%。

The general administration of customs on May 8, according to data released,The first four months of the year,Total imports 110 million tons of various coal in our country,Was increased by 25.6% over the same period last year.

  而从统计数据来看,国外进口到中国的煤炭近年来增长迅速,2011年煤炭进口1.82亿吨,是2001年的91.7倍多;2012年,进口煤炭2.9亿吨,同比增长59%。我国已连续4年成为煤炭净进口国。

And statistically,Imported into China's coal is growing rapidly in recent years,In 2011, 182 million tons of coal imports,Is 91.7 times more than in 2001;In 2012,,Imported 290 million tons of coal,Up 59% from a year earlier.Our country has become a net importer of coal for four years.

  我国是世界上最大的煤炭生产国,近十年来世界煤炭产量的80%增量是中国生产的。为什么最大煤炭生产国还在持续接纳国外煤?

Our country is the world's largest coal producer,80% of the world's coal output increment in the recent ten years is made in China.Why the largest coal producer, is still in continue to accept foreign coal?

  有关专家分析认为,这有世界能源结构变化的影响,但最主要的还是市场因素———煤炭“黄金十年”使得国内煤价大幅上涨,国外煤炭以低廉的开采和运输成本,持续登陆国内煤炭市场。

Think about expert analysis,This is the world's energy structure change influence,But the main or market factors -- coal"Golden decade"Makes the domestic coal prices rose sharply,Foreign coal mining and transportation at low cost,Continued land domestic coal market.

  从世界范围来看,在中国等新兴经济体对煤炭的强劲需求和国际总体煤价不断走高的带动下,各煤炭出口国煤炭行业投资热情普遍较高,近年来不断有新增产能释放,煤炭产量快速增长,国际市场供给增加,为我国增加煤炭进口提供了可能。数据显示,2011年,印度尼西亚、哥伦比亚、俄罗斯、南非等国原煤产量均创出历史新高。

On a world scale,The strong demand in emerging economies such as China for coal and the overall rising coal prices driven,The coal exporter of coal industry generally high enthusiasm,In recent years, constantly have new capacity to release,Rapid growth of coal production,International market supply increases,For our country provides a possible increase in coal imports.According to data,In 2011,,Indonesia/Colombia/Russia/Countries such as South Africa raw coal production record.

  如果抛却煤炭企业自身的感受,放在中国能源保障的大局来看,那么进口煤当然是对国内煤炭市场的良好补充,它可以满足一些特殊时期的资源供给———此前能源专家比较一致的观点就是,当国内煤炭消费总量确定的情况下,煤炭的进口可以抑制国内煤矿企业的开采冲动,我们先多消费进口煤,把有限的煤炭资源留给子孙后代,有助于中国能源的长期安全。

If you forget the feelings of the coal enterprise itself,On the overall situation of China's energy security,Then import coal, of course, is a good complement to the domestic coal market,It can satisfy some special period of supply of resources - energy experts more consistent view is,When under the situation of domestic coal consumption quantity to determine,Import can inhibit the domestic coal mining of coal enterprise impulse,Let's spend more imported coal,Leave limited coal resources for future generations,Contribute to China's long-term energy security.

  但若站在煤炭企业的角度来看,进口煤的持续增加,对于正在寒冬中苦苦坚守的煤炭行业来说,显然不是一个好消息。由于经济总体尚未企稳回升,因此,对作为基础能源保障的煤炭的需求也持续低迷,在销售本已举步维艰的情况下,进口煤以低廉的价格长驱直入、抢占国内煤企原有的市场,对于煤炭的销售无疑是雪上加霜。今年以来,国内煤炭产销量双双下降,煤炭价格持续下滑,应收账款额度不断上升。以我省为例,1至4月份,全省生产原煤4820.8万吨,同比下降4.53%,同时商品煤价格和市场占有率双下降。受外来煤挤压,省内动力煤在青岛、威海、日照等区域占有率大幅下降。而应收账款则在不断增加,有的企业承兑汇票占到了90%以上。

But if you stand in the coal enterprise point of view,Imported coal continue to rise,For the coal industry is struggling to adhere to in the winter,Obviously not a good news.Due to the overall economy has yet to stabilize rebound,so,Demand for coal based energy security as too low,In the case of sales already struggling,March into imports of coal at low price/Domestic coal prices original market,For coal marketing is definitely icing on the cake.Since the beginning of this year,Domestic coal production were down,The price of coal continued to decline,The increase in accounts receivable amount.In our province, for example,From January to April,The province's production 48.208 million tons of raw coal,Fell 4.53% year on year,Coal prices and falling market share double at the same time.By external coal extrusion,Qingdao steam coal in the province/weihai/Sunshine area share has fallen dramatically.And the accounts receivable are increasing,Some enterprises acceptance accounted for more than 90%.

  经济增长低迷放缓,国内煤炭需求转向疲软,进口煤继续大幅增长对国内煤市的作用已经由之前的“促进平衡”变为“导致失衡”,国内煤炭企业的市场压力越来越大。关键的问题是,进口煤价廉但质却未必优,由于看到煤炭外贸有利可图,我国东部及东南沿海的低热量的褐煤和高硫煤进口量快速增加,这些煤在使用过程中给环境带来了极坏的影响。目前,我国褐煤进口量占全球贸易量的比重接近95%,也就是说,各国出口的褐煤基本上全部出口到了中国。褐煤是成熟度最低的一种煤,其挥发分含量接近或超过40%,直接燃烧效率低,污染物和二氧化碳排放量大。

Downturn slowed economic growth,Turn to weak domestic demand for coal,Imported coal continues to grow sharply in the role of domestic coal market has made before"Promote the balanced"Into a"Lead to imbalances",Domestic coal enterprises more and more market pressure.The key issue is,Imported coal and cheap but quality is not necessarily optimal,Due to see the coal trade is profitable,Low quantity of heat, southeastern coast of the eastern part of our country and lignite and high sulfur coal imports increase rapidly,The coal in the process of using brought very bad effect on the environment.At present,China's coal imports accounted for nearly 95% of the total global trade,That is to say,The various countries' export lignite basically all export to China.Lignite coal is one of the lowest maturity,The volatile content close to or more than 40%,Direct combustion efficiency is low,Pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions.

  进口煤的介入也加剧了电煤价格谈判的难度。近日,有消息人士透露,煤电双方在山东的谈判依然维持僵局。兖矿集团仍未与华电集团山东公司就720万吨电煤签订合同。在今年前4个月进口煤超亿吨,二季度还要增长的局面下,煤市有可能继续下滑,如果电煤谈判继续僵持,煤炭企业将陷入更加不利的境地。

Imported coal intervention has also increased the difficulty of the thermal coal price negotiation.In recent days,A source said,Coal in shandong negotiations remain deadlocked.Shandong yankuang group is still not with huadian group company has 7.2 million tons of coal to sign the contract.In the first four months of the year coal imports one hundred million tons,In the second quarter growth situation,Coal city is likely to continue to fall,If coal talks continued stand-off,Coal enterprises will face more disadvantage.

  进口煤对国内煤市影响利弊共存。当务之急是,在当前世界煤炭总体供大于求的形势下,短期内,我们可以考虑通过关税来调高进口煤价。同时,在进口煤数量难以控制的情况下,应该下决心控制那些品质较差的煤的进口。而从国家淘汰落后产能、煤矿兼并重组的力度来看,煤炭企业今后也仍是优胜劣汰的趋势。保障安全生产、控制开采成本、开发海外煤矿资源等,对于煤炭企业今后的发展是至关重要的。

Imported coal impact on domestic coal market advantages and disadvantages coexist.It is imperative that,In the current situation of coal supply in the world,In the short term,We can consider to higher import prices by tariffs.At the same time,In the case of imported coal quantity is hard to control,Should be determined to control the import of the poor quality of coal.And from a country close down backward production facilities/The strength of the coal mining mergers and reorganization,Coal enterprises also is still the evolution of the trend in the future.Guarantee the safety in production/Control production cost/Development of overseas coal resources,Is very important for coal enterprise development in future.



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