财务分析

Financial analysis

　　许多人对财务分析不屑一顾，但是对季报利润比预期多一分钱还是少一分钱耿耿于怀。其实，随便一点会计手段（向渠道压货、改变折旧方式、存货价值重估、信用销售）都可以轻易地改变EPS几分钱。的确，对行业格局的分析和对公司核心竞争力的理解是道，财务分析只是术，但是后者对前者起验证和把关的作用。

Many people despise an attend to financial analysis,But for the quarterly report profit more than expected a penny or less from a penny.In fact,Make yourself at home accounting method(To channel pressure goods/Change depreciation way/Inventory value revaluation/Credit sales)Can easily change EPS a few cents.indeed,On the analysis of the industry pattern and the core competitiveness of the understanding is way,Financial analysis just technique,But the latter on the former the validation and the role of the guard a pass.

南方基金投资总监邱国鹭 The south fund investment QiuGuoLu director

　　造飞机的为何不开航空公司 Made of aircraft why not open airline

　　一位研究者曾问一家知名飞机公司高管：既然你们是造飞机的，为何不自己开一个航空公司？这位高管说，造飞机的回报高于航空公司，要把资源用在回报更高的领域；另外，如果自己开航空公司，飞机造好运到航空公司，是左口袋到右口袋，还在企业内部而不是卖到市场上，上下游产业链的风险容易形成叠加。

A researchers asked a well-known aircraft company executives:Since you are made of the plane,Why don't you open an airline?The executives said,Made the plane returns than airlines,The resources used in the field of higher returns;In addition,If you open airlines,The plane made good luck to airlines,Is left pocket to right pocket,Also in the enterprise internal and not to sell to the market,The risk of downstream industry chain to form stack.

　国务院发展研究中心金融所研究员巴曙松 The state council development research center of the financial ba shusong

　　要政策，不要政策市 To policy,Don't policy city

　　宏观基本面和股市制度性缺陷叠加形成的持续下跌是灾难，也是浴火重生的机遇。低迷市道恰是通过解决发行管制、恶意欺诈、价值缺失、惩戒缺位等长期困扰市场健康发展的痼疾，重树投资者信心的改革切入点，彻底摆脱“救市—虚假繁荣—崩盘”的治标不治本的循环。政府应有作为，但不要托市。要政策，不要政策市。

Macro fundamentals and stock market institutional defect stack formation of falling is a disaster,Is the opportunity of ashes.Downturn conditions just is through solving distribution control/Malicious fraud/Value loss/Disciplinary invalidation etc long plagued the healthy development of the market chronic illness,Rebuilt-up confidence reform the breakthrough point,Completely out of the"Save city - false prosperity - crash"The take temporary solution not effect a permanent cure cycle.The government should have as,But don't UK.To policy,Don't policy city.

　诺德基金总经理潘福祥 Noble fund PanFuXiang general manager

　　走火入魔 Possessed by the devil

　　洛钼上市人为限制股数和价格，发行价3元首日收盘9元以上。打新这么赚钱，以后不愁新股没人吹捧。公司上市没募到什么钱，但原始股东将来套现肯定可以再捞回来，买单的必然是二级市场投资者。新股发行改革如此走火入魔，谋小利而毁大义，这样的市场以后想不惨都难。

Los molybdenum listed artificial limits shares and price,Issue price 3, 9 yuan closed head of state.Dozen new so make money,Don't worry about new shares after not flatter.The company listed not offering to what money,But the original shareholders to cash in the future can be sure to getting back,The pay is necessarily the secondary market investors.Ipo reform so possessed by the devil,Seeks the gains and destroyed's sense of honor,Such market later don't think miserable all difficult.

　　燕京华侨大学校长华生 Watson yanjing overseas Chinese university President

　　出人意料 unexpectedly

　　9月银行信贷出人意料地低于8月，表明行业信贷总量控制依然有着决定性作用，下季信贷将平稳增长。社会融资规模明显扩大表明当下融资需求旺盛，其中信托贷款和企业债券融资增长尤为抢眼，有理由相信其中相当部分流向了基础设施和房地产。这必将增加未来经济回升的动力，但由此产生的风险也应高度关注。

September bank credit unexpectedly below August,Show that industry credit total amount control still has a decisive role,Next season credit will be steady growth.Social financing scale extended obviously shows that the financing demand,The trust loans and corporate bond financing growth is particularly eye-catching,There is reason to believe there quite a part to the infrastructure and real estate.This will increase the future economic resilience of the power,But the resulting risk should also high attention.

　　交通银行(601328,股吧)首席经济学家连平（陈春雨整理 小标题为编者所加）

Bank of communications(601328,guba)Chief economist even flat(ChenChunYu finishing small title for editor upon)