消费转型是中国必须迈出的一步，否则中国经济很难在外需走弱的背景下保持平稳，而中国经济增长的果实也无法由居民充分享受，平白损失福利。

Consumption transformation is China must step of the way,Otherwise it is difficult to China's economy in a weaker now under the background of remain stable,And the fruits of China's economic growth cannot enjoy by residents,Welfare loss for no reason.

　　但消费转型的方案，需要根据其目标来仔细设计。消费转型的目的不应该、也不可能是某个具体的消费占经济比重数值，因为经济增长的本意是提升居民的福利。而消费占比究竟达到多少才能最大化“消费流”带给居民的福利，只有市场知道。

But consumption transformation scheme,According to its target and need to carefully design.The purpose of the transformation of consumption should not/Also can't be a specific consumption accounted for the proportion of economic numerical,Because economic growth's original intention is to promote the welfare of the people.And consumption accounts for how much on earth than to maximize can"Consumption flow"Bring the welfare of the people,Only the market know.

　　在发达的市场经济国家，当居民所拥有的资本通过金融市场流向企业部门，最终变成投资的时候，居民部门的时间偏好就成为了筛选投资项目的标准，从而确保了投资回报率与居民偏好的契合，以及资源在消费与投资之间的合理分配。所以，中国消费转型的目标应该是建立这种市场化调节消费与投资的机制。

In the developed market economy countries,As residents have capital through the financial market flow enterprise department,Eventually become investments,Residents department time preferences become the screening of investment project standard,To ensure the rate of return on investment and the fit of residents preferences,And resources in between consumption and investment, reasonable distribution.so,China's consumer transformation goal should be to create this kind of market regulation consumption and investment mechanism.

　　中国虽然也有金融市场，但主要受国企的影响，并未真正起到协调消费与投资的作用。中国规模以上工业企业的总资产中，有四成属于国企，而中国的金融行业更是被国企高度垄断。国企在用自有资金进行投资时完全无需考虑居民部门的偏好，一些回报率偏低的项目也照投不误。更严重的是，即使那些由居民部门储蓄所形成的资本，在通过包括银行在内的金融中介流向企业部门的过程中，也并非完全按照市场规律来进行配置。因此，中国居民的时间偏好很难对企业的投资行为形成约束。即使投资已经过剩，投资回报率已经偏低，资源仍然难以从投资转移到消费，消费不足由此产生。

China although has financial markets,But is mainly affected by the influence of the state-owned enterprises,Do not really play a coordinating role of consumption and investment.China's industrial enterprises above designated size in the total assets,Forty percent belong to state-owned enterprises,And China's financial industry is highly monopoly state-owned enterprises.In state-owned enterprises with their own funds for investment is completely without considering the preference of residents department,Some low rate of return on the project also according to throw not by accident.More serious is,Even those who by residents savings bank department formation of capital,By including Banks in the financial intermediary flow in the process of enterprise department,It is not completely according to the market rules to configuration.therefore,Chinese residents of time preference is difficult to to enterprise's investment behavior formation constraint.Even if the investment has excess,Has been lower rate of return on investment,It is still difficult to resources from investment transfer to consumption,Underconsumption arising therefrom.

　　虽然国资委已推出了国企强制分红的政策，但也无法改变这种局面。国企强制分红政策有一个无法逾越的障碍无法知道到底多大的分红比例是恰当的。在发达市场经济国家，企业部门依照金融市场给出的居民偏好信息做出合适的投资决策，并将投资后所剩余的企业利润以红利的形式支付给拥有企业的居民。所以，分红其实是资源在投资和消费之间流动的一种形式。因此，分红的比例应该是多少，只有市场知道。而且对于不同的企业，恰当的分红比例应该是不同的。企业所拥有的投资项目回报率越高，分红比例就应该越低。显然，国资委任意设定的一刀切分红比例不可能真正平衡投资与消费。

Although the sasac has launched a state-owned enterprises forced dividends policy,But can't change this situation.The forced dividends policy have a cannot overstep obstacles cannot know exactly how much proportion of share out bonus is appropriate.In the developed market economy countries,Enterprise departments in accordance with the financial market given residents preference information to make the right choice of investment decision,And it will invest after the rest of the profit of enterprise in the form of dividends paid to have the inhabitants of the enterprise.so,Share out bonus is actually resources in flow between investment and consumption of a kind of form.therefore,How much is the proportion of share out bonus,Only the market know.And for different enterprise,Appropriate proportion of share out bonus of should be different.Enterprise have the higher rate of return on investment projects,The lower proportion of share out bonus should be.obviously,The sasac arbitrary set one size fits all dividends ratio cannot be really balance investment and consumption.

　　所以，中国的消费转型要推进，核心是通过国企改革来让金融市场真正发挥市场化筛选投资项目的功能。但这并不一定需要把国企私有化。东欧国家的经验也显示，私有化的进程很难把握，有可能演变为部分内部人对国有资产的攫取。

so,China's consumption to promote transformation,Core is through the reform of state-owned enterprises to make financial markets give full play to the function of the market screening investment projects.But it doesn't necessarily need to state-owned enterprise privatization.Eastern European countries experience also shows,It is difficult to grasp the process of privatization,It is possible to change for part of the insiders of the state-owned assets to grab.

　　笔者的建议是在不改变公有制的前提下，构造一个国企所有权的竞争市场，从而打通居民部门与企业部门的联系。具体来说，组建相当数量的国有投资基金，让这些基金在二级市场上竞购各个国企的股票，争夺国企所有权。另一方面，把这些国有投资基金的份额放入居民的社保个人账户，让居民可以分享国有投资基金带来的投资回报。同时，让居民可以将其持有的基金份额在不同基金、以及其他投资标的之间转换，从而保证居民可以通过“用脚投票”的方式对基金的管理层施加影响。这样，居民的时间偏好就可以决定国有投资基金对投资回报率的要求，进而会变成对投资项目的筛选标准。投资回报率与居民时间偏好也就能达到平衡，从而保证资源在消费和投资间的合理分配，制约中国金融市场发挥作用的关键障碍也会就此突破。

The author's suggestion is not to change under the premise of public ownership,The ownership of the state-owned enterprises to build a competitive market,So as to get through residents department and enterprise department contact.specifically,Set up quite a number of state-owned investment fund,Let these funds in the secondary market shares of state-owned enterprises on each bid,For the ownership of state-owned enterprises.On the other hand,Put these state-owned investment fund share in the residents' social security individual account,Let residents can share state-owned investment fund brings return on investment.At the same time,Let residents can by the fund share in different funds/And other investment mark between conversion,So as to ensure that residents can pass"Vote with their feet"Way to fund management influence.this,Residents of time preference can decided to state-owned investment fund to the requirements of the rate of return on investment,Then will become to investment project selection standard.Rate of return on investment and resident time preferences also can achieve balance,To ensure resources in between consumption and investment, reasonable distribution,Restrict China's financial markets play a role of the key obstacles will be on breakthrough.

　　总而言之，中国所需要的消费转型，是构建一个有效运转的金融市场来把资源在消费和投资之间合理分配。这其中最大的障碍是在经济中占相当比例的国企。解决的方法是建立多个国有投资基金，在不改变所有制的前提下，构造国企所有权的竞争市场，从而完善金融市场的运行。

overall,China needed consumption transformation,Is to build an effective operation of the financial markets to put resources in between consumption and investment reasonable distribution.This is one of the biggest obstacles in economy accounted for a significant proportion of state-owned enterprises.The solution is to establish more state-owned investment fund,On the premise of not changing ownership,Structure of ownership of state-owned enterprises competition market,So as to improve the operation of the financial markets.

　　作者为光大证券

The author is everbright securities

　　首席宏观分析师

Chief macroscopic analysts