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为什么是SDR--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-11-30
一年一度的“第一财经金融价值榜”落下帷幕,其中的“年度金融书籍”榜单也为“泛金融圈”的朋友推荐了一袋沉甸甸的金融好书。我们选书的视角和标准概括起来大致是八个字——“全球视野、专业主义”。中国央行行长周小川的文集《国际金融危机:观察、分析与应对》(下称《国际金融危机》)获选年度“书籍大奖”之一,没有人会感到意外。
The annual"The first financial financial value list"To drop the curtain,One of the"Annual financial books"List for"Extensive financial circle"The recommendation of a friend of a bag of heavy financial good books.We choose the perspective of books and standard in summary is roughly eight word --"A global field of vision/professionalism".China's central bank governor zhou xiaochuan collection of essays[The international financial crisis:observation/Analysis and deal with](said[The international financial crisis])Selected year"Books award"of,No one will feel surprised.
事实上,我们一直希望找到一本描述中国如何参与和影响全球金融决策的书。在大国竞合的语境下,即便是在危机后G20的框架和平台上,中国主导全球金融标准和决策的案例依旧微乎其微。《国际金融危机》是本学术著作,几十篇文章覆盖了危机以来全球金融领域最重要的学术、监管的概念和议题,间或你还会发现滤波器、最优化、数字音频这类工程学案例在金融世界中有趣的触类旁通。
In fact,We always hope to find a book about how China to participate in and influence the global financial decision books.In the context of competition power,Even in crisis after the G20 framework on the peace,China's leading global financial standards and decision-making case is still small.[The international financial crisis]Is the academic works,Dozens of articles covering the crisis of global financial field since the most important academic/The concept of supervision and issues,Sometimes you will also find filter/optimization/Digital audio this kind of engineering case in the financial world interesting comprehend by analogy.
最值得推荐的是其中多篇首次公开的长篇文稿,将所涉议题的框架、背景和最新进展说得条分缕析、透彻完整;而了解背景的读者会发现,全球经济金融的交锋,在最高意义上,是学术、理论和智慧的交锋——用西方世界的语言、概念和思维方式,提出中国立场的分析和全球解决方案,在学术上站得更高,才可能赢得和中国经济实力相匹配的地位和尊重。而这,对于很多中国高层决策者而言,还是一件非常陌生的事。
The most recommendable was one of many first public article long files,Will be involved in the framework of issues/Background and the latest progress TiaoFenLvXi said/Thoroughly complete;And know the background of readers will find,The global economic and financial confrontation,At the highest sense,Is academic/Theory and the wisdom of the cross swords - use the language of the western world/Concept and mode of thinking,Put forward the position analysis and global solutions,In the academic stand higher,Just may win and China's economic strength matching position and respect.And this,For many Chinese in terms of top decision makers,Still a very strange things.
国际交锋 International exchange
G20的2009年伦敦峰会、匹兹堡峰会和2010年的多伦多峰会这段时间,在全球和G20的平台上,中国的国际地位有了显著提高,这和危机后新兴市场和发达国家力量对比此消彼长、中国果断应对经济快速复苏有关,在一定意义上,也和中国央行的几篇文章有关。
The G20 London summit in 2009/The Pittsburgh summit in 2010 and Toronto summit this period of time,In the world and the G20 platform,China's international status has improved significantly,After this and crisis emerging markets and developed countries marked strength contrast/China's decisive to the rapid economic recovery,In a certain sense,China's central bank also and the several articles about.
《国际金融危机》收录了这几篇文章,而同时收录的2010年5月周小川行长在人民银行高级研修班上的讲话《国际货币体系改革:背景、关联与建议》,首次披露了与此相关的幕后故事以及国际金融语境下的逻辑关联。危机之后,西方主流世界的声音认为,危机的源头在于以中国为主的亚洲国家的高储蓄率。因此,中国领导人“责成财政部和人民银行,要在G20峰会之前发出一点声音”(131页),随后,在伦敦峰会前的一个星期,人民银行网站连续刊登了周小川的四篇文章(一篇以央行金融研究所名义发表),其中国际影响最大的是第一篇刊出的《关于改革国际货币体系的思考》。
[The international financial crisis]Including the several articles,While the collection of May 2010, governor zhou xiaochuan in people's bank on the senior training speech[The international monetary system reform:background/Correlation and Suggestions],For the first time revealed the related the story and the international financial context of logic relation.Crisis after,Western mainstream the voice of the world think,The source of the crisis in Asian countries dominated by China to the high savings rate.therefore,China's leaders"Instruct the ministry of finance and the people's bank,In the G20 summit to before make a sound"(131),then,In the London summit a week ago,People's bank website continuous published zhou xiaochuan four article(An article published in the central bank financial research institute name),The international impact is the first article of the publication[To reform the international monetary system thinking].
关心国际金融的读者们大多还记得,这篇文章提出:应考虑充分发挥特别提款权(SDR)在国际货币体系中的作用,包括建立SDR与其他货币之间的清算关系、推动在国际贸易和大宗交易等领域使用SDR计价、推动创立SDR资产,以及完善SDR的定值和发行方式(28页)。
Care international financial readers mostly still remember,This article puts forward:Should consider to give full play to the Special Drawing Rights(SDR)The role in the international monetary system,Establishing SDR and other currencies of the liquidation of the relationship between/Push in the international trade and block trade, and other fields use SDR valuation/Promote founded SDR assets,And improve and perfect the SDR's set value and distribution mode(28 pages).
这是一个以攻为守的逻辑框架。背后则是由来已久的国际交锋。故事要从2006年的“格林斯潘之谜”讲起,这一年,格林斯潘通过视频讲话在北京的研讨会上第一次提出了他担忧的一个重要问题:美联储每次按0.5个百分点的幅度连续提高利率,但几次加息后长期利率并不相应提高,甚至还有所下降,这是过去没有出现过的现象(140页)。此后,对这个问题的主流声音倾向于认为,是亚洲的储蓄过剩、外储积累导致了全球的储蓄率变化和资本流动。危机之后,西方主流观点自然演化认为,亚洲的高储蓄率是这次危机的重要原因之一。
This is a logical framework attack in order to defend.Behind is time-honoured international exchange.The story from 2006"Greenspan mystery"Speak up,This year,Greenspan through the video speech in the Beijing seminar for the first time puts forward that he worried a important problem:Every time the fed at 0.5% amplitude continuous to raise interest rates,But interest rates several times after long-term interest rates does not increase,Even the decline,This is in the past did not appear the phenomenon(140).Since then,To the problem of mainstream sound tend to believe that,Is Asia's savings surplus/The reservoir accumulation cause global savings rate change and capital flows.Crisis after,Western mainstream view that natural evolution,Asia's high savings rate is one of the important reasons for the crisis.
四篇文章之一的《关于储蓄率的思考》对此作出了回应,提出亚洲储蓄率的上升和美国储蓄率的下降并非同步发生,警示西方应更多自省(134页)。而和SDR相关的中国立场是:美国作为储备货币的主要发行国,存在“特里芬难题”(储备发行国的货币政策和维持全球货币与金融体系的义务发生矛盾),因此要求美元保持基本稳定,对全球负责。其后的逻辑则是:如果美国做不到这一点,是不是还具备储备货币的资格和条件?若不够格,总有人会提出SDR或者其他替代方案(139页)。
One of the four articles[Think about the savings rate]This made the response,Puts forward Asia a rise in the savings rate and the United States savings rate decline is not synchronous happen,Warning western should be more introspection(134).And SDR relevant Chinese position is:The United States as a reserve currency of the main issue kingdom,exist"Terry Finn problem"(Reserve issuing countries of the monetary policy and maintain global monetary and financial system conflict obligations),Therefore $request kept basically stable,Responsible for global.Subsequent logic is:If the United States can't do this,Whether still have the reserve currency qualifications and conditions?If do not have what it takes to,Someone will put forward SDR or other alternative(139).
不难看出,以SDR为诉求点,击中了要害,这也可以解释为什么这篇文章引发了最为广泛和激烈的国际反响。这几篇文章发挥了作用,伦敦峰会的讨论因此更加务实而平衡。
It is easy to see,To SDR for appeal point,Hit the key,This may explain why this article caused the most widely and fierce international repercussions.The several articles to play a role,The London summit discussion so more pragmatic and balance.
事后,有论者把超主权货币(SDR是其中之一)和多元储备货币体系对立起来,认为两者非此即彼,代表了截然不同的发展思路。事实上,两者在短期和中期内可以相互补充,正如书中所言,“国际货币体系改革是个多面体”(139页),“国际货币体系的改革不可能走得太快……但也是要在中长期内予以解决的。”(149页)
afterwards,Scholars have the super sovereign currency(SDR is one of them)And multiple reserve currency system oppose,It was thought that they either this or that,Represents the different development thought.In fact,Both in the short and medium term can complement each other,As the book said,"The international monetary system reform is a polyhedron"(139),"The international monetary system reform can't walk too fast...But it is also in medium and long term solution to within."(149)
SDR和Bancor SDR and Bancor
说到SDR,书中还披露了一段颇有意思的背景。2006年,由于“大稳健”已有时日,危机罕见,以管理危机为己任的IMF(国际货币基金组织)经费不足,发不出工资,要裁员。时任IMF总裁拉托征求各方意见以解脱困境,周小川行长给他的建议是,比较BIS(国际清算银行)和IMF,有助于找到解决问题的办法(142页)。
Said to the SDR,The book also revealed a quite interesting background.In 2006,,because"Big robust"Already had time,Crisis rare,To manage crisis to assume the responsibility of IMF(The international monetary fund)Fund shortage,Hair a wage,To cut jobs.The IMF President rato solicit opinions from all parties in trouble,Zhou xiaochuan President gave him advice is,Comparative BIS(The bank for international settlements)And IMF,Help to find the solution to the problem(142).
第一个区别是,BIS所有的资产负债表、损益表,以及涉及分红和中央银行间交易的财务处理都用SDR,基本避免了欧元波动造成的问题;虽然SDR是IMF的产物(1969年创立),但却不是IMF的核算和会计单位。第二个区别是,不少中央银行把一部分资产放在BIS,由BIS负责经营,这个资产规模大概有2000亿SDR;但IMF平时不掌管大量资产,成员国向IMF的出资平时也放在各自国家的账户上。周小川建议,如果更多发挥SDR的作用,使用SDR作为核算单位,IMF也可以保留一部分SDR现金资产在账上,从而解决收益问题。
The first difference is,BIS all of the balance sheet/Income statement,And involves share out bonus and the central bank of transactions between financial treatment with SDR,Basic avoid the euro fluctuation caused problem;Although the SDR is the product of the IMF(Founded in 1969),But not the IMF's accounting and accounting entity.The second difference is,Many central bank put part of the assets in the BIS,The BIS is responsible for business,The asset scale about 200 billion SDR;But the IMF don't usually in charge of a large number of assets,Member states to the IMF's capital contribution usually also on their country's account.Zhou xiaochuan Suggestions,If more play the role of the SDR,Use SDR as accounting unit,IMF can also keep part of the SDR cash assets in the account,So as to solve income problem.
这似乎确实是一个好主意。不过2008~2009年的金融危机让IMF重返全球权力中心,重要性与日俱增,加上成功的资源改革,使用SDR并推进这方面改革的迫切性降低了。
This seems to is really a good idea.But the 2008-2009 financial crisis let the IMF to return to the global power center,The increasing importance,With the success of resource reform,Use of SDR and promote the urgency of the reform of the reduced.
事实上,超主权货币体系是一个由来已久的话题。凯恩斯在上世纪40年代提出的清算联盟计划(Clearing Union Plan)依旧让人无法忘怀:各国央行联合组成国际清算银行(International Clearing Bank,ICB,即全球央行);为避免顺差积累外汇储备上升并导致全球失衡,持续顺差并持有外汇储备的一国(债权国)不允许对冲,其顺差将自动通过ICB转为提供给债务国的贷款安排,总体而言,顺差和逆差在清算银行的体系内自动抵消;同时,ICB以超主权货币(Bancor)计价,各国央行在配额(过去五年贸易平衡平均值的一半)下用本币从ICB购买外汇,各国货币汇率和Bancor挂钩,基本固定但可调整;Bancor和黄金挂钩,但不兑换。这样Bancor最终成为全球货币,不但可以逐渐摆脱黄金的通货紧缩束缚,还通过逆周期的增加或减少配额,来维持全球经济金融的稳定。
In fact,Super sovereignty monetary system is an age-old topic.Keynes put forward in the 1940 s of the liquidation of the affiliate program(Clearing Union Plan)Still let a person can't forget:Central Banks of a combination of the bank for international settlements(International Clearing Bank,ICB,Namely global central bank);To avoid surplus accumulation of foreign currency reserves rose and lead to global imbalances,Continuous surplus and foreign exchange reserves held one country(Creditor country)Don't allow hedge,The surplus will be automatically through the ICB to provide debtor loan arrangements,In general,Surplus and deficit in the clearing bank in the system of automatic offset;At the same time,ICB to super sovereign currency(Bancor)valuation,Central Banks in the quota(Over the past five years trade balance for the average of the half)With domestic currencies under from ICB to buy foreign exchange,Currencies exchange rate and Bancor hook,Basic fixed but can be adjusted;Bancor and gold hook,But don't exchange.This Bancor eventually become the global currency,Not only can gradually get rid of gold deflationary bound,Also through the reverse cycle the increase or decrease of quota,To maintain the global economic and financial stability.
这显然是一个“英国版”的精美模型,当时贸易持续顺差、国际地位蒸蒸日上的美国当然不会接受,来自美国财政部的经济学家怀特的方案最终获胜,其方案加上凯恩斯方案的某些元素构成了日后的布雷顿森林体系,而凯恩斯的全球央行(250亿美元初始资源)也变成了国际货币基金组织这个仅在危机时才有所作为的缩略版(80亿美元初始资源)。
This is obviously a"British edition"Exquisite model,When trade sustained surplus/International status thriving the United States certainly won't accept,From the United States Treasury economists white plan win,The scheme and Keynesian solution some elements in the future of the bretton woods system,And Keynes's global central bank($25 billion initial resources)Has become the international monetary fund this only in crisis when it is a thumbnail edition($8 billion initial resources).
后来,由于所谓特里芬难题,美国的逆差不可持续,布雷顿森林体系在1971年坍塌,之后建立的牙买加体系(Jamaica Accord)为日后波澜不断的金融危机埋下了种子。
later,Because the so-called terry Finn problem,America's deficit is unsustainable,The bretton woods system collapsed in 1971,After the establishment of Jamaica system(Jamaica Accord)For future waves of the continuous financial crisis buried the seed.
超主权货币体系,Bancor, SDR,是理想,但却值得去研究并实践。
Super sovereignty monetary system,Bancor, SDR,Is an ideal,But it is worth to study and practice.
(作者系本报副总编)
(The author is the deputy chief editor)
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