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　　[ “财政悬崖”之下，企业也对美国税收即将上调的预期升温，因此多数企业主正在下调对未来一段时期的盈利预期。在标普500指数的成份股中，已经有多家企业下调了对第四季度的盈利预期 ]

[ "Financial cliff"under,Enterprise also to American tax will rise expected warming,So most business owners are cut in the future a period of earnings expectations.In the s&p 500 index in the component,Have cut the number of enterprises in the fourth quarter earnings expectations]

　　随着奥巴马赢得连任，美国市场的焦点已经从总统选举转向针对“财政悬崖”的谈判问题上，而在2012年最后的这一个月时间里， 越来越多的投资者将因此而感到寝食难安。

As Obama win re-election,The United States has been the focus of the market from the presidential election in turn"Financial cliff"Negotiations on the problem,In 2012 the last this month time, More and more investors will therefore losing and feel.

　　

美元成焦点 Dollars into focus

　　所谓“财政悬崖”，最初是由美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)使用，用以形容在2013年1月1日这一时间节点上，小布什政府的税收优惠减免政策以及奥巴马政府的2%薪资税减免和失业补偿措施延长等政策将同时到期，这将导致政府财政开支突然减少，民众税收大幅增加，从而令支出曲线上看上去犹如悬崖，故得名“财政悬崖”。

The so-called"Financial cliff",First is the federal reserve chairman Ben bernanke(Ben Bernanke)use,Used to describe in January 1, 2013 the time nodes,Little bush government's preferential tax relief policies and Obama government 2% salary tax credit and unemployment compensation measures such as extended policy will be due at the same time,This will lead to the government finance expenditure suddenly reduce,People a significant increase of tax revenue,To make the expenditure curve looks like a cliff,So the name"Financial cliff".

　　如果美国在年底之前未能就“财政悬崖”问题推出新的法案，那么6000亿美元自动增收减支项目将启动，相当于GDP的4%的负担。

If the United States at the end of the year it failed to before"Financial cliff"Problem a new bill,So 600 billion dollars will be automatic 'income in order to start the project,The burden of equivalent to 4% of GDP.

　　瑞银集团全球证券策略师克里斯·费拉罗尼11月8日称，“如果美国国会不能够就"财政悬崖"问题达成一致，那么美国经济陷入衰退的可能性会非常高，而且将是急剧衰退。坦率地说，这不仅会冲击美国经济，也将给世界经济带来灾难。”

Ubs global securities strategists Chris phila Ronnie said on Tuesday,"If the United States congress can not"Financial cliff"Reach a consensus,So the American economy into a recession possibility will be very high,And will be a sharp recession.frankly,This not only will impact the American economy,Will give the world economy bring disaster."

　　尽管如此，无论是白宫还是国会，基本上都不会想要坠入崖内，因此，市场基本预测，美国国会将在年底之前勉强达成共识，避开大部分财政紧缩的措施。

Even so,Whether the White House or congress,Basically all won't want to fall in the cliff,therefore,Basic market forecast,The congress of the United States at the end of the year will be before reluctantly agreed,Avoid most austerity measures.

　　高盛近日指出，市场参与人士认为年底前国会无法达成协议的几率为三分之一，近期一份对基金经理的调查显示，认为无法达成协议的人数仅为17%。

Goldman sachs pointed out recently,Market participation people think congress were unable to reach an agreement before the end of the probability for a third,A recent survey of fund managers,The number of people that were unable to reach an agreement is only 17%.

　　知名投资人沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）近日表示，财政悬崖即使到来，也不意味着世界末日降临，认为最终美国法律制定者将达成协议，但他并不确定该协议能否在年底前达成。

Well-known investor warren buffett(Warren Buffett)Recently said,Financial cliff even coming,Does not mean the end of the world coming,Think finally American law makers will reach an agreement,But he is not certain whether the agreement reached by the end of the year.

　　然而，“悬崖”的山体并不是一天堆砌成的，那么可想而知，越过财政悬崖的云梯也无法在一夜之间搭建成功。基于美国国会两党的传统，不到火烧眉毛之际达成协议的可能性极低。

however,"cliff"Mountains and is not a day a stack,So imagine,Over the financial cliff of the ladder cannot build success overnight.Based on the United States congress two party's traditional,Less than fire the eyebrows possibility of reaching an agreement is extremely low.

　　因此，两党达成协议之前，投资者已经将这一问题置于“忧虑”榜单的榜首，而美元则成为了市场各方最为关注的焦点。

therefore,The two parties reach an agreement before,Investors will have the problem in"anxiety"Top of the list,And dollars became the market parties the most the focus of attention.

　　今年早些时候一直对美元指数持看多立场的外汇交易大佬约翰·泰勒（John Taylor）11月28日表示， 在过去的数个月中，货币市场一直在经历涨涨跌跌的拉锯战，而投资者的情绪状况也随之如同坐上了过山车一般。目前来看，如果此后美国朝野两党在“财政悬崖”问题上始终无法谈拢，并导致美国经济陷入衰退的话，那么美元将会走强，但反过来，如果财政悬崖得到消除，同时美联储又扩大了资产收购规模的话，那么美元就会走软。

Earlier this year the dollar index has a look at many position foreign exchange trading big brother John Taylor(John Taylor)November 28 said, In the past few months,Money market has been going through up and down the seesaw battle of fall,And investors mood status will be like sitting on the roller coaster general.So far,If then the United States in the court and the commonalty two parties"Financial cliff"Problems still cannot talk about approach,And led the American economy into a recession words,Then the dollar will go strong,But in turn,If the financial cliff to obtain the elimination,At the same time the fed and expand the scale of assets acquisitions words,So dollars will go soft.

　　泰勒指出，目前难以对美元在后市的走势方向作出明确的判断，但是市场格局很有可能会在下周初即发生变化。

Taylor points out that,At present difficult to against the us dollar in the market outlook trend direction to make clear judgment,But the market pattern is likely to change that by early next week.

　　中国银行(601988,股吧)总行全球市场部一分析师对第一财经日报《财商》记者表示，近期美元的小幅反弹就是投资者对“财政悬崖”问题担忧的体现。根据历史经验，这次的财政悬崖的解决方式将会与上次美国债务触及上限相类似，因此预计美元指数在“财政悬崖”前后的走势也将会与2011年美国债务上限谈判时的走势相类似。在国会达成协议之前，美元将会走强，一旦协议达成，美元将会走弱。

The bank of China(601988,guba)Head office global marketing a analysts to the first financial daily[Money business]reporters,The recent dollar rebound slightly to investors"Financial cliff"The embodiment of the concerned about.According to historical experience,The financial cliff solution will be the last time the United States similar debt hit the ceiling,Therefore expected the dollar index in"Financial cliff"Before and after the trend will be and in 2011 the United States debt limit when negotiations of similar trend.In parliament before an agreement,The dollar will go strong,Once the agreement to,The dollar will go weak.

　　不过上述分析师也指出，与债务上限最大的不同是，这次财政悬崖的问题如果没有达成协议，将会对实体经济带来影响，而预计消极的影响将会持续到明年上半年，这将持续对美元施压。

But the above analysts also pointed out,And the debt limit is the biggest different,The financial cliff problem if did not reach an agreement,Will impact on the real economy,And is expected to negative impact will continue until the first half of next year,This will continue to put pressure on the dollar.

　　但市场也存在另一种声音。投行摩根士丹利的外汇分析师就认为，无论“财政悬崖”危机的前景如何，都会推动美元指数上行。

But the market also has another kind of voice.Investment bank Morgan Stanley foreign exchange analysts think that,No matter"Financial cliff"The prospect of the crisis,Will push the dollar index uplink.

　　瑞士信贷的中国首席经济学家陶冬认为，相对欧洲而言，他看好美国经济的前景，因此在他看来，美元已经进入了一个中期的上升期。

Credit suisse China chief economist TaoDong think,Relative for Europe,He believed the prospect of the us economy,So in his view,The dollar has entered a middle stage.

　　陶冬表示，过了财政悬崖之后，美国经济的不确定性要比日本、欧洲与中国都小，美元资产必然会成为避险天堂。且美国的贸易逆差已经出现了大幅度下降，今后两三年会有大量的海外资金流向美国，购买美国的房地产。在这些因素的共同作用之下，美元进入了一个中期的上升周期。

TaoDong said,After the financial cliff,The United States economic uncertainty than Japan/Europe and China are small,Dollar assets will become hedge paradise.And America's trade deficit has appeared decimated,In the future two or three year a large number of overseas funds flow to the United States,Buy American real estate.In these factors under the joint action,Dollars into a medium-term rise period.

　　中行的外汇分析师也指出，进入明年下半年后，主导美元的因素可能会改变，那时美元强势格局将有可能形成。

The bank's foreign exchange analysts also pointed out,In the second half of next year after,Leading dollar factors may change,At that time the dollar pattern will be formed.

　

　资本市场受挫 Capital market setback

　　尽管市场预期“财政悬崖”问题将最终得到解决，但有机构提醒投资人不要小觑这一问题对市场带来的持续影响。

Although the market is expected to"Financial cliff"Question will eventually be resolved,But there are institutions to remind investors do not underestimate the problem to the market with continuous effects.

　　澳洲国民银行近日指出，即使避免了财政悬崖，那么美国长期财政问题依然存在。

Australia national bank pointed out recently,Even avoid the financial cliff,So America's long-term fiscal problems still exist.

　　巴菲特认为，即使“财政悬崖”最终的结果会导致美国财政收入占GDP比例达到18.5%，支出占21%。这一水平是“可持续的”债务GDP占比不会上涨，而随着经济增长对财政收入缺口进一步填补，债务GDP占比可能还会下降。

Buffett think,Even if"Financial cliff"The end result will be led to the American financial revenue to GDP ratio reached 18.5%,Spending accounts for 21%.This level is"sustainable"Debt of GDP than won't rise,But along with the economic growth to financial income gap to fill,Debt of GDP than may also decline.

　　近期，金融市场对任何有关“财政悬崖”的消息都异常敏感。本周二，股市因为参院民主党领袖里德的悲观表态而普跌。周三，美国总统奥巴马和国会众议院议长博纳相对乐观的讲话，令美股逆转盘中一度达1%的跌幅而收高。周四，博纳又称预算谈判并未取得大的进展的言论令股市涨幅受限。

recent,Financial market for any relevant"Financial cliff"The news anomaly sensitive.On Tuesday,The stock market for senate democratic leader harry Reid pessimistic declare and tome fell.On Wednesday,The United States President barack Obama and congressional house speaker borna relatively optimistic speech,Make us stocks reversed plate once 1% decline and accept high.On Thursday,Boehner says budget negotiations and did not get big progress of speech to the stock market or restricted.

　　克里斯·费拉罗尼预测，美国政府很可能会提高税率，经济将保持温和增长，但是在“财政悬崖”问题明朗之前，美国股市将保持敏感，很难看到强劲的上扬。

Chris phila Ronnie prediction,The United States government is likely to improve tax rate,The economy will keep moderate growth,But in"Financial cliff"Problem clear before,The us stock market will remain sensitive,It is difficult to see a strong rise.

　　当地时间28日，美联储公布的被称为“褐皮书”的全国经济形势调查报告指出，美国许多行业对财政悬崖的担忧与日俱增，其中12个地区中有5个地区的制造业联络人对2013年的前景表达了担忧，部分原因在于财政悬崖所造成的不确定性。

Local time, 28,,The federal reserve announced called"Beige book"National economic situation report said,Many American industries to financial cliff fears,The 12 regions has five regional manufacturing point of contact for prospects for 2013 expressed concern,Part of the reason is that financial cliff caused by the uncertainty.

　　有分析人士表示，“褐皮书”反映出企业对财政悬崖的恐慌正在扩散。

Have analysts said,"Beige book"Reflect the enterprise to finance cliff panic is diffusion.

　　此外，“财政悬崖”之下，企业也对美国税收即将上调的预期升温，因此多数企业主正在下调对未来一段时期的盈利预期。

In addition,"Financial cliff"under,Enterprise also to American tax will rise expected warming,So most business owners are cut in the future a period of earnings expectations.

　　在标普500指数的成份股中，已经有多家企业下调了对第四季度的盈利预期。

In the s&p 500 index in the component,Have cut the number of enterprises in the fourth quarter earnings expectations.

　　Rosecliff Capital分析师麦克·墨菲（Mike Murphy）表示，企业正在利用一切机会减少障碍，所有的关注点都放在了财政悬崖上，若财政悬崖终究无法避免，则还是降低对未来的预期比较好。

Rosecliff Capital analyst Michael murphy(Mike Murphy)said,Enterprise are taking advantage of every opportunity to reduce the disorder,All of the focus on the financial cliff,If financial cliff eventually is unable to avoid,In the future, or reduce the expected better.

　　此外，标普道琼斯指数资深指数分析师霍华德·希尔沃布拉特指出，“对于国会而言，"财政悬崖"是个政治问题，但是对于企业来讲，税率的上调是需要考虑的头等大事，这关系到公司的切身利益。”

In addition,S&p dow Jones index senior index analysts Howard hill walter sepp blatter pointed out,"As for congress,"Financial cliff"Is a political question,But to corporations,Tax rate hike is need to consider top priority,This is related to the vital interests of the company."

　　众所周知，股息税在前总统小布什任期下降至15%，由于奥巴马再次当选，国会很可能把股息税提高。而如果一旦坠入财政悬崖的话，那么股息税将会继续飙升。

As is known to all,Dividend tax in the former President bush term decline to 15%,Because barack Obama was elected again,Congress is likely to put the dividend tax increase.And if once fall into financial cliff words,So the dividend tax will continue to soar.

　　德意志银行近日公布的一份报告显示，如果两党就“财政悬崖”达成妥协，那么股息税将会居于30%下方，如果股息税超出30%的话，股息收益率较高的行业很可能会进一步下行。

Deutsche bank has released a report,If both parties are"Financial cliff"Reach a compromise,So the dividend tax will be in below 30%,If the dividend tax beyond 30% word,Dividend yields higher industry is likely to further down.

　　传统意义上讲，公用设施、电信和消费品行业的企业，能从较低的股息税中获取巨大的好处，但是目前它们也是最容易受到攻击的目标。

The traditional sense,Public facilities/Telecom and consumer goods industry enterprise,Can from low dividend tax to huge benefits,But now they are also the most vulnerable to attack goal.

　　近日，高息行业已经受到冲击。统计数据显示，自第四季度以来，电信类股票已经下跌8%，公用设施类股票跌幅超6%。getty图

recently,Dear industry has impact.Statistics show,Since since the fourth quarter,Telecom shares have dropped 8%,Public utility stocks fall over 6%.Getty diagram