中国出口信用保险公司日前发布的最新短期出口贸易信用风险指数（ERI指数）显示，二季度世界经济仍在艰难复苏，而中国出口贸易在经过一季度的低迷之后出现企稳迹象，主要出口贸易伙伴国（或地区）宏观经济状况改善、部分行业需求量有所恢复，新兴市场平稳增长。2012年二季度ERI综合指数呈小幅反弹趋势，由一季度的102.29回升至103.22点，这表明中国短期出口贸易信用风险有所缓和。

China's export credit insurance company to released the latest short-term export trade credit risk index（ERI index）shows，In the second quarter of the world economy is still in a difficult recovery，While China's export trade after the downturn in the first quarter after signs appear stabilising，The main export trade partner（Or region）Macro economic conditions improve、Some industry demand been restored，Emerging market steady growth。In the second quarter of 2012, ERI composite index is a recovery of the trend，The quarter's 102.29 back up to 103.22 points，This shows that Chinese export trade short term credit risk has eased。

　　从二季度主要国家和地区的ERI指数结果来看，日本、沙特阿拉伯和澳大利亚为A级；美国、阿联酋、印度、韩国、马来西亚、南非、英国、中国台湾、加拿大、德国、印尼和法国为B级；埃及、荷兰和越南为C级；墨西哥、乌克兰、俄罗斯、西班牙、委内瑞拉和意大利为D级，违约风险相对较高；巴西和阿根廷国家信用水平为E级，违约风险相对很高。

In the second quarter from the main countries and regions of the ERI index result，Japan、Saudi Arabia and Australia for A level；The United States、The united Arab emirates、India、South Korea、Malaysia、South Africa、British、China's Taiwan、Canada、Germany、Indonesia and France for class B；Egypt、The Dutch and Vietnam as a class C；Mexico、Ukraine、Russia、Spain、Venezuela and Italy for grade D，The relatively high risk of default；Brazil and Argentina for national credit level grade E，Relatively high risk of default。

　　从主要国别和地区指数变动趋势来看，共有19个国家和地区ERI指数基本稳定，6个国家ERI指数环比下降，一个国家ERI指数环比上升。分区域看，美欧尤其是欧元区主要国家有所回升，拉美国家普遍下降。其中，阿根廷、马来西亚、埃及、乌克兰、委内瑞拉、西班牙降幅较大，德国ERI指数上升幅度较大，美国、意大利、英国、法国也有所回升。

From the main national and regional index change trend，There are 19 countries and regions ERI index basically stable，Six countries ERI index annulus comparing decline，A national ERI index annulus comparing to rise。Points area see，Us and European especially the eurozone major countries have rebounded，Latin American countries decline。Among them，Argentina、Malaysia、Egypt、Ukraine、venezuela、Spain larger drop，Germany ERI index rose to a larger extent，The United States、Italy、British、France also bounced。

　　从二季度主要行业ERI指数结果来看，能源行业和化学制品行业风险很小，为A级；金属制品行业、医药行业、家电、视听行业、食品饮料烟草行业、信息技术行业、机械制品行业、家具、纺织服装行业、电器与电子元器件行业风险较小，为B级。

In the second quarter from the main industry ERI index result，The energy industry and chemical industry risk is very small，For A level；Metal products industry、Pharmaceutical industry、Home appliance、Audio-visual industry、Food and beverage tobacco industry、Information technology industry、Mechanical products industry、furniture、Textile clothing industry、Electrical and electronic components industry less risk，For class B。

　　从主要行业ERI指数变动趋势来看，家具、纺织服装行业和电器与电子元器件行业ERI指数环比大幅上升；信息技术行业指数下降。一季度，家具、纺织服装行业以及电器与电子元器件行业由于需求大幅下滑，ERI指数大幅下降，二季度，家具、纺织服装需求行业有所恢复，电器与电子元器件行业则由于德国、法国的市场需求回升而有所上扬。信息技术方面，由于出现大的违约事件而导致出险率上升，ERI指数大幅下滑。

From the main industry ERI index change trend，furniture、Textile clothing industry and electrical and electronic components industry ERI index rose significantly in the annulus；Information technology industry exponential decline。quarter，furniture、Textile and clothing industries, and electrical and electronic components industry due to a sharp decline in demand，ERI index plunged，In the second quarter of，furniture、Textile clothing demand industry restore somewhat，Electrical and electronic components industry, the German、The French market demand picks up and rising。Information technology，Since the big event of default to ChuXianLv rise，ERI index fell sharply。

　　结合当前的全球经济形势和国际贸易形势，预计三季度ERI指数会有所下降。中国信保建议，外贸企业应对拉美、东南亚部分新兴市场ERI指数下滑的态势予以关注，同时要密切关注欧债危机的发展动向。行业方面，预计化学制品行业在下半年会继续上扬，能源行业可能高位回落。

With the current global economic situation and the international trade situation，In the third quarter is expected to ERI index fell。Chinese believe the Suggestions，Foreign trade enterprise to Latin America、Parts of southeast Asia emerging market index down ERI situation to be paid attention，And at the same time pay close attention to the development trend of the European debt crisis。industry，Chemical industry is expected in the second half will continue to rise，Energy industry may highs。

　　据悉，中国信保将在10月份对外发布2012年三季度ERI指数。（覃达）

It is reported，The Chinese believe will be released in October 2012 third quarter ERI index。（Tain of）