张茉楠（国家信息中心预测部副研究员）

Zhang Mo nan（The state information center forecast deputy researcher）

　　今年上半年，在整体贸易形势并不乐观的情况下，中国服务外包产业保持了较快的增长。据商务部服贸司统计，今年1~6月我国共承接国际服务外包合同金额同比增长49.8%，执行金额同比增长45.8%，这意味着中国服务贸易大有潜力可挖。

In the first half of this year，In the overall trade situation is not optimistic，Chinese service outsourcing industry maintained rapid growth。According to the ministry of commerce trade statistics service department，1 ~ 6 month this year of our country carry on international service outsourcing contract amount to an increase of 49.8%，Executive amount year-on-year growth of 45.8%，This means that China's service trade is capacity。

　　当前，全球经济竞争的重点正从货物贸易转向服务贸易，服务业与服务贸易的发展水平已成为衡量一个国家现代化水平的重要标志之一。中国必须把发展服务贸易作为提升我国参与国际竞争层次的重要抓手，促进中国从贸易大国走向贸易强国。

The current，The global economic competition is the key from trade in goods to service trade，Service industry and the development of service trade level has become the measure of a national modernization level one of the important marks。China must take development service trade as a promotion our country to participate in international competition levels of important means，Promoting China's trade country to trade from power。

　　近年来，伴随着我国在国际贸易中的地位不断上升，服务贸易也取得了非常大的进展。统计显示，“十一五”期间，中国服务进出口总额从1917亿美元增长到3624亿美元，增幅达89%，年均增长17.3%。其中，服务出口年均增长16.8%，是同期全球服务出口平均增速的两倍。与此同时，中国服务进出口总额全球占比从2006年的3.6%增长到2010年的5.1%，世界排名由第八位上升到第四位。

In recent years，Along with our country in the status of international trade is on the rise，Service trade has also made very great progress。Statistics show that，“11”during，China's total import and export services from $191.7 billion to $362.4 billion growth，89%，The average annual growth of 17.3%。Among them，Service export the average annual growth of 16.8%，The same period is global service export growth rate of average two times。At the same time，China's total import and export volume of global service than from 3.6% in 2006 to 5.1% by 2010，The world ranking eighth by up to fourth place。

　　然而，无法回避的是，与发达国家比较而言，中国服务贸易发展还处于严重失衡的局面。“服务立国”是发达国家经济发展的重要特征之一。在全球近200个国家和地区中，服务贸易居前20名的国家和地区主要是发达国家，美国、英国、德国、法国、意大利、比利时、日本等国的服务贸易出口额，已占各自国家国民生产总值的10%以上。比如，作为世界上最大服务贸易国的美国，2011年实现服务贸易进出口1万亿美元，实现顺差1.79亿美元，同比较上年增长23%。

however，Is unable to avoid，Compared with the developed countries concerned，China's service trade development is still in a serious imbalance of the situation。“Service nations”The developed countries is one of the most important features in economic development。In the world nearly 200 countries and regions，Service trade in the top 20 countries and the area is mainly developed countries，The United States、British、Germany、France、Italy、Belgium、Japan exports of services trade，Their countries have accounted for more than 10% of GDP。For example，As the world's largest trading nation of American service，2011 years to achieve service trade import and export $1 trillion，Realize the surplus of $179 million，Compared with a 23% growth from last year。

　　反观中国，服务贸易却连续十年出现逆差，这既有中国加入世贸组织后扩大开放、进口增加的原因，也反映出比较服务贸易竞争力，中国与主要发达经济体间存在着明显差距。2011年中国服务出口和服务进口分别位居世界第四和第三，但中国的服务贸易进出口额占货物贸易的比重只有12.5%，比全球的水平低10%。

In China，Trade in services but for ten years appear deficit，It has both after China's entry into the wto wider to the outside world、The reasons for the growth of the imports，Also reflects more service trade competitiveness，China and the main developed economies there exists a significant gap between。In 2011 China's import and export service service in the world respectively. 3 and no. 4，But China's service trade in exports account for the proportion of trade in goods is only 12.5%，The 10% lower than the global level。

　　当前国际服务贸易日趋知识化、技术化和资本化，世界服务贸易的部门结构已从以自然资源或劳动密集型的传统服务行业（如旅游、销售服务等）为主，逐步转向以资本密集型的服务行业（如运输、电讯、金融等）和知识技术密集型的服务行业 （如专业服务、计算机软件、数据处理等）为主。这正体现了世界服务贸易的结构优化趋势。

The current international service trade is better educated、Technology and capitalization，World service trade department structure has to natural resources or from labor-intensive traditional service industry（Such as tourism、Sales service, etc）primarily，Gradually turned to the capital intensive service industries（Such as transportation、telecommunications、finance）And knowledge technology-intensive service industries （Such as professional service、Computer software、Data processing, etc）primarily。This reflects the world service trade structure optimization trend。

　　而中国服务贸易以旅游、运输等传统性行业为主，在资本密集型、知识密集型服务方面较为薄弱，导致整体服务贸易的国际竞争力不强。2010年，中国服务贸易出口仍有约一半集中在运输、旅游等传统服务业领域，而金融、保险、计算机和信息服务、通讯服务等四类高附加值和高技术含量的服务贸易仅占出口总额的7.6%。

China's service trade and tourism、Transportation of the traditional industries，In capital intensive、Knowledge-intensive services are weak，Cause the overall service trade international competitiveness is not strong。2010 years，China's service trade exports still has some half concentrated in transportation、Tourism and other traditional service areas，financial、insurance、Computer and information services、Communication service and so on four kinds of high added value and high technical content of service trade accounts for only 7.6% of total export amount。

　　目前，全球服务的可贸易化已开始改变整个贸易深层次结构。上一轮全球化是制造业供应链的深刻重构。在此过程中，中国凭借相对低廉的要素价格累积了经常项目的巨额顺差。而现在，跨国公司全球制造布局已基本完成，在传统红利渐近消逝的过程中，中国必须加快贸易转型升级。

At present，Global services trade can be the has started to change the whole trade deep structure。Globalization is the last round of the supply chain manufacturing deep reconstruction。In the process，China with relatively cheap price of elements accumulated often project huge surplus。And now，Multinational company global manufacturing layout has been completed，In traditional dividend asymptotic dies in the process，China must accelerate the transformation and upgrading of trade。

　　首先，未来中国的“人口红利”优势将会逐步衰减，劳动力供给增速下降、劳动力成本提升，整体经济进入了生产要素成本周期性上升的阶段。工业部门的利润有可能越变越薄，资本回报率将持续下降，出口驱动的增长红利会减少。

first，The future of China“Demographic dividend”Advantage would gradually decrease，Labor supply growth decline、Labor cost ascension，The overall economy into the factors of production cost cyclical upswing phase。Departments of industry profits are probably more change the thin，Return on capital will continue to decline，Export drive growth will reduce the dividend。

　　其次，“资源红利”衰减后经济增长面临资源环境瓶颈问题。中国特有的“过度工业化、过度出口依赖、过度投资驱动、过度粗放增长”的模式，已经严重威胁到可持续发展的上限。

second，“Resources dividend”After the attenuation economic growth the bottleneck problem facing resources environment。Unique to China“Over industrialized、Excessive dependence on exports、Excessive investment drive、Excessive extensive growth”mode，Have a serious threat to sustainable development of the upper limit。

　　最后，来自于全球增长格局的演变。在全球外部不平衡逆转、全球分工体系格局日趋稳定、中国出口产品集中度不断上升所逐步界定的国际市场容量、劳动和资源成本上升和汇率升值的压力以及逆周期的贸易政策盛行五大因素的影响，未来出口作为中国经济增长的核心动力和主要源泉难以维持，并将步入递减区域。

finally，From global growth pattern evolution。External imbalance in global reversal、The global division of labor system more stable pattern、China's exports rising gradually define the concentration of the international market capacity、The rise in the cost of labor and resources and exchange rate appreciation pressure and inverse cycle of trade policy in the influence of the five factors，The future of China's economic growth of export as core power and the main source is difficult to maintain，And will step into decline area。

　　这意味着中国经济必须从“要素驱动”转向“价值驱动”。要逐步扭转过度依靠初级要素的竞争方式，通过设计研发创造、品牌价值创造和营销渠道创造等高端服务环节创造利润、创造附加值，大力发展高层次的服务贸易，实现全产业链整体升级是必然选择。

This means that the Chinese economy must be from“Elements drive”Turned to“Value driving”。To gradually turn excessive rely on primary elements form of competition，Through the design and development creation、Brand value creation and marketing channel creation, and other high-end service links to create profits、Create added value，Develop a high level of service trade，Realize the whole industry chain upgrade is inevitable choice。