受欧债危机持续影响，在国内经济逐渐减速背景下，6月份我国进出口同比、环比增速均比上个月回落。在内外交困的环境下，三季度进出口增速有可能继续走低。

Europe debt crisis by continuing to affect，In the domestic economy gradually slow down background，In June, China import and export up、Annulus comparing growth are better than last month fell back。In the environment of foreign trapped，Three quarters of import and export growth is likely to continue lower。

　　从外贸发展的内外环境看，首先，世界经济增长放缓。今年以来，世界经济复苏动能愈显不足，制造业持续萎缩。欧元区经济低迷程度不断加深，新兴市场国家增长普遍放缓，对全球经济的带动作用减弱。6月份，全球、美国、欧元区、日本的制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）均跌破荣枯分水岭50%，这释放出世界经济正在放缓的信号。新兴经济体除受欧债危机影响外，也面临自身经济增长放缓和内部经济结构问题。

From the development of foreign trade of internal and external environment look，first，The world economic growth。Since this year，The world economic recovery and greater kinetic energy shortage，Manufacturing continued to atrophy。The euro zone economic downturn deepening，Emerging market countries growth slowdown in general，The leading role on the global economy weakens。June，global、The United States、eurozone、Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index（PMI）All RongKu watershed below 50%，This release the world economy is slowing signal。Emerging economies by the European debt crisis in the influence，Also face their own economic growth and the internal economic structural problems。

　　其次，国内经济存在下行风险。去年下半年以来，由于对一度过热的投资和过大的通胀预期进行了主动调控，我国经济增长开始减速，通胀率也得到明显抑制。然而，今年以来，三大需求同步回落，使得经济增长率加速下降。从第二季度情况看，PMI指数平均为51.3%，较一季度回落0.2个百分点，回落幅度明显收窄，反映出经济增速向趋稳方向发展，经济增速应在国家调控预期目标范围内。

second，The domestic economy exist downside risk。Since the second half of last year，Because of the excessive investment and once overheating expectations of inflation on the active control，The economic growth in China will slow down，Inflation has also been significantly inhibited。however，Since this year，Three big demand synchronous fell back，That economic growth accelerated decline。In the second quarter to see conditions，PMI index 51.3% on average，A drop of 0.2% in the first quarter，Fall obviously narrow range，Reflect economic growth to stabilise the development direction，Economic growth in the national regulation should be anticipated target range。

　　第三，全球货币政策宽松。欧洲央行7月5日宣布，7月11日起下调基准利率25个基点至0.75%。丹麦央行跟随欧洲央行降息，存款利率已降至-0.2%的负利率。同日，中国人民银行也决定，自2012年7月6日起再次下调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。巴西、韩国央行也宣布下调基准利率。全球范围内如此大规模地宣布降息或扩大量化宽松规模，是旨在通过降低信贷成本来刺激企业和居民的信贷、消费，进而促进经济增长。

The third，Global monetary policy loose。The European central bank announced on 5 July，July 11 cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%。Central Banks cut interest rates with the European central bank to Denmark，Deposit interest rates have been reduced to-0.2% of the supportive。the，The people's bank of China also decided to，Since the July 6, 2012 up another drop financial organ renminbi benchmark interest rates。Brazil、The bank of Korea also announced the benchmark interest rate cut。Worldwide, the large scale so cut interest rates or expand quantitative announced loose scale，By lowering the cost of credit is the aim is to boost enterprise and residents of the credit、consumption，And promote economic growth。

　　第四，贸易环境恶化。今年以来，我国不断遭受贸易摩擦。美国今年对中国产品多次发起“双反”调查和“337调查”，贸易保护主义明显升温。新兴经济体对华贸易诉讼也开始增多。据世界贸易组织统计，在阿根廷发起的反倾销调查中有1/4针对中国产品。印度近年来对我国反倾销调查立案数量已经超过欧美，占同期所有WTO成员对我国反倾销调查案件总数的1/5。不仅针对中国进行贸易调查案件持续增多，一些本土性政策已经成为国外质疑中国补贴政策的关注点。与此同时，技术性贸易壁垒和绿色壁垒持续升温，西方发达国家原来只针对单一产品采取单一措施设置技术壁垒，现在已发展到针对大类产品采取系统性的综合措施。

The fourth，Trade environment deterioration。Since this year，Our country suffered continuously from trade friction。The United States to China this year launched many products“Double the”Survey and“337 survey”，Trade protectionism obvious to heat up。Emerging economies China in trade lawsuit also started to increase。According to the world trade organization，The anti-dumping investigation launched in Argentina in a quarter for Chinese products。India in recent years antidumping investigation against our country population has filed more than America and Europe，The same period of all WTO members to our country the anti-dumping investigation cases 1/5 of the total。Not only for China trade investigation cases continued increase，Some of the local policy has become China's foreign policy concerns questioned subsidies。At the same time，The technical trade barriers and green barriers continues to heat up，The western developed countries only for a single product for adopting single measures setting technical barriers，Now already development in categories of products to take the systematic and comprehensive measures。

　　因此，我国外贸依然面临严峻复杂局面，出口短期内仍有回落可能。6月份，我国一般贸易和加工贸易进口增速比5月分别降低7.3个百分点和9.2个百分点，显示出国内需求继续走弱，全球经济环境依旧脆弱。今年上半年我国自加工贸易进口主要地区——日本、韩国等的进口持续低迷，上半年呈负增长态势，表明下半年出口形势依然不容乐观。

so，China's foreign trade is still facing serious complicated situation，Exports are still fall short term may。June，China's general trade and processing trade than imports may decrease by 7.3% and 9.2% respectively，Shows that domestic demand remains weak，The global economy is still fragile environment。In the first half of this year from the processing trade import main areas-Japan、South Korea, for the import of the downturn，A negative growth trend in the first half，The second half of that export situation remains optimistic。

　　进口大幅回暖有待时日。国内需求疲软、库存压力增大、企业采购意愿降低、加工贸易增速放缓以及国际大宗商品价格持续回落，是导致6月进口增速大幅下滑的主要原因。可喜的是，上半年我国进口的重点商品中，铁矿石、铜以及原油等重点大宗商品进口量大幅增长。但是，随着我国经济增速放缓，由市场结构转型推动的大宗商品需求增长有可能出现下滑。因此，进口下半年能否回暖首先取决于我国经济走势。先行PMI进口指数连续4个月下滑，PMI原材料库存指数再度回升，预示进口大幅回暖还有待时日。三季度中后期，随着库存回补周期到来和政策累积效应显现，经济如果逐步企稳，进口增速则有望逐步回升。

Import warmed to be a time。Domestic demand weak、Inventory pressure increasing、Enterprise purchase intend to reduce、Processing trade growth is slowing, and international commodity prices continue to fall back，In June imports is the main reason for the decline。Delectable is，The focus of the country import goods，Iron ore、Copper and oil and such key commodities a sharp increase imports。but，As China's economic growth is slowing，The market structure transformation of push commodity demand growth may have declined。so，The second half of import can thaw first depends on China's economic situation。The PMI import index for four months to slide，PMI raw material inventory index rise again，Indicates a thaw remains to be imported time。Late in the third quarter，As for coming back to inventory cycle and policy accumulated effects appear，Economic if stabilising gradually，Imports were expected to rise gradually。

　　不过，我国外贸的核心竞争优势短期内不会发生较大变化，加之一系列稳增长、促外贸和扩进口的政策措施效果逐步释放，如果世界经济形势尤其是欧债危机不再继续恶化，今年全年外贸可望实现10%的预定增长目标。

but，China's foreign trade of the core competitive advantages in the short term won't happen major changes，Together with a series of steady growth、To promote foreign trade and import expansion policy measures effect gradually released，If the world economic situation especially European debt crisis will no longer continue to deteriorate，The whole year the foreign trade is expected 10% of the reserve growth target。