本报告周期，即从7月11日至7月18日，环渤海地区发热量5500大卡市场动力煤综合平均价格报收641元/吨，比前一报告周期下降了11元/吨，跌幅约为1.68%，开始出现明显下降。

This report cycle，That is, from July 11 to July 18，In the areas surrounding the heat 5500 calories market power coal comprehensive average price at RMB 641 / ton，The previous report cycle down 11 yuan/ton，Lost about 1.68%，Start to appear to decline significantly。

　　与此同时，国内煤炭产量下降之 时，另一个数据为煤价跌幅收窄提供了很好的解释。6月份，我国煤炭进口总量2719万吨，同比增长58.5%，增幅远远小于前几个月份。

At the same time，Domestic coal output of decline when，Another data for coal prices fall narrow provides a good explanation。June，Our coal import 27.19 million tons，Year-on-year growth of 58.5%，Growth far less than in the previous few。

　　“经济下行，供过于求，导致煤价下跌，带动近期外贸煤成交的明显趋缓，同时，国内煤炭产量增速也在放缓，利于煤价下跌幅度的收窄。”业内研究人士对记者解释道。

“Economic downside，Supply exceeds demand，Coal prices fall to，Drive the recent foreign trade, a coal obviously to slow down，At the same time，Domestic coal output growth is slowing，Prices fell by to the narrow。”The researchers explained to reporters。

　　指数不会跌破600元/吨？

Index not below 600 yuan/ton？

　　煤价、煤价、到处都是煤价，煤价成了近期业界热议的话题。

Coal prices、Coal prices、Coal prices are everywhere，Coal prices became a recent heat to the discussion of the industry。

　　7月18日，是最新一期环渤海动力煤价格指数发布日期，就在指数还没有发布之前，就有业内研究人士在其微博中表示，“今天下午煤炭价格指数即将发布，又是一个让人忐忑的时刻，本期价格指数是继续下跌，还是止跌企稳？”

July 18,，Is the latest issue of the bohai sea power coal price index the release date，In the index has not before release，Will have the researchers in the micro bo said，“Coal price index this afternoon to be released，Another man was so let time，This price index is continue to fall，Stabilising or reason？”

　　同时，很快有研究人士回应“下跌是定势，不要考虑”。或许没有任何一个时期，煤价的变动如此让人期待，甚至让人揪心。

At the same time，Soon researchers response“Down is rut，Don't consider”。Perhaps no one period，The change of the coal prices so looking forward to it，And even make the anxious。

　　果不其然，昨日下午3点左右，海运煤炭网发布环渤海地区发热量5500大卡市场动力煤价格指数，本报告周期(2012年7月11日至7月18日)，综合平均价格报收641元/吨，比前一报告周期下降了11元/吨。该指数已经连续多周创下自指数创立以来的历史新低，此次也不例外。

Sure enough，Yesterday around 3 PM，Sea coal nets release in the areas surrounding the heat 5500 calories market power coal price index，This report cycle(July 11, 2012 to July 18)，The average price at RMB 641 / ton，The previous report cycle down 11 yuan/ton。The index has more than a week since the index for the record low since it was founded，This is no exception。

　　继续持续下跌趋势不假，然而，跌幅出现了明显的收窄，前几期超过20元/吨的下跌已经变成了十几元，跌幅也从多期的3%以上出现明显下降。

Continue to keep falling trend is false，however，There is an obvious drop the narrow，Before a few more than 20 yuan/ton of decline has become more than ten yuan，Fall from more than 3% of the period is more apparent decline。

　　其中，秦皇岛港发热量5500大卡/吨市场动力煤主流成交价格报收625-635元/吨，曹妃甸港报收625-635元/吨，国投京唐港报收625-635元/吨，京唐港报收640-650元/吨，天津港(6.05,0.08,1.34%)报收630-640元/吨，黄骅港报收665-675元/吨。

Among them，Qinhuangdao heat 5500 calories/tons of market power coal mainstream clinch a deal the price at the 625-635 yuan/ton，Caofeidian harbor at 625-635 yuan/ton，International trust &investment at 625-635 jingtang harbor were yuan/ton，Jingtang harbor were at the 640-650 yuan/ton，Tianjin port(6.05,0.08,1.34%)At the 630-640 yuan/ton，At three 665-675 yuan/ton。

　　值得一提的是，秦皇岛港的交易价格区间比前一个报告周期下降了20元/吨，国投京唐港和天津港的交易价格区间比前一个报告周期下降了15元/吨，曹妃甸港的交易价格区间比前一个报告周期下降了5元/吨。

It is，Qinhuangdao's trading price interval before than a report cycle down 20 yuan/ton，Proprietary trading price of jingtang harbor were and tianjin port interval than the previous one report cycle down 15 yuan/ton，The port of the caofeidian trade the price range than the previous one report cycle down 5 yuan/ton。

　　看到秦皇岛港625-635元/吨的价格，距离600元/吨已经相当近了，不禁让人开始出现这样的想法，煤价会跌破600元/吨吗？对此，一位不愿具名的煤炭行业协会人士告诉记者，“市场煤价不会降到600元以下，不可能降到与合同煤价持平。降到600元以下，直接逼近合同煤，煤炭企业是不会允许的，多数企业肯定会降低产量保价格”。

See qinhuangdao 625-635 yuan/ton price，Distance 600 yuan/ton has quite close，Can't help letting person began to appear such idea，Coal prices will fell below 600 yuan/ton？this，An anonymous coal industry association sources told reporters，“Market prices won't drop to 600 yuan，Impossible to contract and coal prices flat。The price dropped to below 600 yuan，Direct approximation contract coal，The coal enterprise is not allowed，Most enterprise will reduce production the price”。

　　“由于市场需求疲软，各环节煤炭库存普遍偏高，用煤企业采购积极性不高，未来一段时间内煤价或将进一步下滑。” 中商流通生产力促进中心行业分析师李廷认为，煤价继续走低，部分资源条件或区位条件不好的企业将率先因市场压力而限产。随着煤炭企业限产规模不断增加，煤炭市场将重新趋于平衡，之后煤价将整体进入震荡调整阶段。

“Since the market demand weak，The coal storage each link is higher，Use coal enterprise purchase enthusiasm is not high，The future within a period of time or will decline further coal prices。” The pioneer circulation productivity center industry analysts LiTing think，Coal prices will continue to lower，Part of the resources or location bad enterprise will take the lead in the market and XianChan because of pressure。Along with the coal enterprise XianChan scale increasing，The coal market will be back in equilibrium，Coal prices after the whole into shock adjustment stage。

　　进口回落利于煤价跌幅收窄

Import prices fall back to narrow

　　虽然经济下行，市场需求疲软仍是煤价不能止跌企稳的最主要原因，但是，供过于求，国内煤炭产量不减，国外煤炭进口量增速明显提高也是煤价下跌的原因之一。之所以有这样的说法，与今年国内煤炭进口量出现大幅增长有很大的关系。然而，加大进口量，国内市场能否消化的了成了问题。

Even though the economy is down，The market is still weak demand coal prices can't reason of stabilising the main reason，but，Supply exceeds demand，Domestic coal output don't reduce，Foreign coal imports growth improved obviously is also one of the reasons the prices down。Is this idea，And domestic coal imports this year in a substantial growth has the very big relations。however，Increase imports，The domestic market can digest the became a problem。

　　从近几个月国内国外煤炭市场可以看出，在煤价下跌的趋势下，虽然国内企业煤炭产量并没有出现明显的下降，但是，国外煤炭进口市场却受到了较大影响，率先做出反应。

In recent months from domestic foreign coal market can be seen，In fall under the trend of prices，Although the domestic enterprise coal production and no apparent decline，but，Foreign import market by coal but bigger influence，Takes the lead in response。

　　该反应从海关总署的数据中可见一斑，上半年累计进口13985万吨，同比增长65.9%。其中，4月份煤炭进口量为2505万吨，同比增长90%，环比增长17%；5月煤炭进口量为2617万吨，同比增长62%，环比增长4.1%；6月份煤炭进口总量2719万吨，同比增长58.5%。

The response from the general administration of customs evidenced in the data，Imported 139.85 million tons in the first half，Year-on-year growth of 65.9%。Among them，April 25.05 million tons of coal imports，Year-on-year growth of 90%，Annulus comparing growth of 17%；5 month for 26.17 million tons of coal imports，Year-on-year growth of 62%，Annulus comparing growth of 4.1%；June coal import 27.19 million tons，Year-on-year growth of 58.5%。

　　虽然每月的煤炭进口量仍然保持在高位，但增幅明显下降。

Although the monthly coal imports still remain high，But growth obviously decreased。

　　有业内研究人士在其微博中表示，从6月份数据可以看到，进口煤增速延续回落，反映出了在内外贸煤炭价差收窄的状态下，外贸煤成交逐步趋缓。当前国内煤炭市场仍受库存高企困扰，下游采购意愿低迷，现货成交清淡，贸易商悲观情绪浓厚。

Have the researchers in the micro bo said，From June data can be seen，Import growth fell back continue coal，Reflect the foreign trade the price of coal, narrow condition，Foreign trade coal gradually slowed clinch a deal。The current domestic coal market is still under high inventory problems，Downstream purchasing intend to slump，Spot clinch a deal the light，Traders pessimism is rich。

　　近日，关于煤炭进口贸易商亏损、毁约，甚至出逃的消息不断，对此，记者致电北京久兴伟业商贸公司，该公司主做煤炭贸易，对方接线销售人员告诉记者，和以前相比，煤炭生意确实不太好做了。

recently，About coal import trade business losses、charged，Even the news was constantly，this，Reporters call Beijing long xing weiye trading company，The company Lord coal trade，Each other wiring sales staff told reporters，Than ever，Coal business is really don't。

　　针对记者提到的进口煤贸易，另外一家公司的销售人员对记者表示，虽然自己所在公司没有涉及到，但同行中已经有多家公司早已开始降低了煤炭进口量，多数仍在进口的也是先前签下的合约，与国外新签购买合约数量明显降低。即使已签订的合约，为了减少亏损金额，很多公司也会通过各种方式变相毁约，尤以沿海地区主做海外煤炭进口业务的煤炭贸易商为主。

According to the reporter mentioned import coal trade，Another company's sales staff told reporters，Although their own company didn't involve，But in the same companies have already started to reduce the coal imports，Most are still in the previous import is also signed contracts，New signing contracts with foreign purchase quantity is decreased obviously。Even if has a contract，In order to reduce loss amount，Many companies also will be charged in disguised form by various means，Especially in coastal areas Lord coal import business overseas coal traders to give priority to。

　　“市场不好的时候，现有手里的库存都难以消化，煤炭在手里多一天就多出一天的堆存费等各种费用，谁都不敢轻易再签合约，尤其是小公司。”他对记者如是表示。

“The market is bad，The existing hand inventories are difficult to digest，Coal in his hand a day by more than a day of DuiCunFei and all kinds of other costs，Who can't easily to sign the contract，Especially small company。”He is said to reporters。

　　看来，减少手里的煤炭进口量也成为煤炭贸易商们减少损失的重要方式。华诚煤网负责人在其微博中也表示，“煤炭进口应形成一个合理的额度，不宜过增过减”。

look，Reduce the coal imports also become in the coal trade dealers is an important way to reduce the losses。HuaCheng charge in the coal nets in micro bo said，“Coal import should form a reasonable amount，Shoulds not be too add a minus”。