当外界将“人民币升值”这一趋势认定为常态之时，人民币却改变了其单一变化的态势。记者发现，从今年5月开始，人民币兑美元汇率近日频频刷新最低纪录。据国家外汇管理局数据显示，16日人民币兑美元汇率中间价为6.3495，创下了年内新低。 

When the outside world will“Appreciation of the RMB”This trend is recognized as the normal，The yuan has changed its single change the situation。Reporter discovery，In may this year began，The dollar has repeatedly refresh lowest on record。According to the state administration of foreign exchange data display，16 the dollar middle rate is 6.3495，To set the record of the year low。 

　　内业人士分析称，人民币继续下行的原因在于，美国经济数据利好和欧洲经济数据利空双重因素导致美元指数上升。最新数据显示，7月美国零售业销售环比增长0.8%，为该数据四个月来首次环比增长。同时，欧元区第二季度GDP环比下降0.2%。而与此同时，商务部16日也明确表示：“我国下半年外贸形势严峻，实现出口增长目标有难度。”独立研究机构北京福盛德经济咨询有限公司首席经济学家冯建林说：“为稳定出口，人民币或在短期内略微贬值。” 

In the industry analysts say，The yuan to continue down because，Economic data in the us is good and the European economic data bad dual factors to cause the dollar index rose。The latest statistics show，July the United States annulus retail sales growth of 0.8%，The data for four months to the first link growth。At the same time，The eurozone GDP fell by 0.2% in the second quarter annulus。And at the same time，The ministry of commerce 16 also made clear：“The second half of our country foreign trade the grim situation，Achieve export growth target has the difficulty。”Independent research organization Beijing f featuring economic consulting co., LTD., chief economist FengJianLin said：“To stabilize the export，RMB or in the short term slightly devaluation。” 

　　美元转强 

Dollar turn strong 

　　人民币贬值预期加强 

The devaluation of RMB is expected to strengthen 

　　自从2005年汇改以来，人民币累计升值已超28%。然而在今年2月创下历史高点后，人民币兑美元随即出现了贬值。 

Since 2005 since the exchange change，Appreciation of RMB has been over 28%。However, in February after a record high，The us dollar followed by a devaluation。 

　　央行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2012年8月16日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元兑人民币6.3495元，继前日上升39个基点后再上升了13个基点。 

The central bank announced authorized China foreign exchange center，In August 2012, 16 RiYin inter-row foreign exchange market the RMB exchange rate for the middle price：One dollar to 6.3495 yuan，After the day before yesterday rose 39 basis points up again after 13 basis points。 

　　另有统计数据显示，近两个月内，人民币兑美元的贬值幅度已经超过0.4%；同时，人民币对美元的即期汇率在过去的一个月中曾多次击破6.38的心理关口。部分市场人士预计，人民币对美元即期汇率年内跌破6.4的概率很大，“不排除跌至6.5”。 

Other statistics show，Nearly two months，The us dollar depreciation range has exceeded 0.4%；At the same time，The spot exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar in the past month has repeatedly break 6.38 psychologically。Parts of the market is expected to people，The spot exchange rate of the RMB against the us dollar fell below 6.4 year the probability of large，“Don't exclude fell to 6.5”。 

　　国泰君安证券周二发布的研究报告指出，今年3月以来，香港人民币NDF汇率与人民币即期汇率差持续扩大，“意味着人民币贬值预期正在增强。” 

Guotai junan securities research report released Tuesday，Since march this year，Hong Kong RMB NDF RMB exchange rate and the sight HuiLvCha continued to expand，“Means that the devaluation of RMB are expected to increase。” 

　　中信银行总行国际金融市场专家刘维明对此分析出三大原因：一是国内经济过去几个季度持续放缓，造成海外投资者担忧经济硬着陆；二是国内资本项目顺差缩减甚至逆差风险加大，导致人民币贬值压力增大；三是欧债危机影响，市场避险情绪不断推高美元，对人民币汇率产生向下压力。 

Citic bank head office of international financial market experts LiuWeiMing based on analysis of the three main reasons：One is the domestic economy in the past few quarters continued slowdown，A hard landing caused by overseas investors worried about the economy；The second is the domestic capital account surplus reduced even deficit risk increase，The devaluation of RMB to increase pressure；The third is the debt crisis，Market hedge emotional constantly push up dollars，The exchange rate for the renminbi to create downward pressure。 

　　“贬值预期的加强导致热钱流出。”国泰君安证券研究报告并指出，从外汇占款口径计算出来的热钱看，7月热钱流出高达340亿美元，已是连续第4个月大幅流出。外汇局近日承认，上半年我国出现了一定程度的资本外流。我国商务部16日公布的数据也显示，7月我国实际使用外资75.8亿美元，同比下降了8.7%。 

“Devaluation expected to strengthen the hot money outflow。”Guotai junan securities research report and points out，Foreign exchange from funding of diameter calculation of the hot money to see，July hot money outflow as much as $34 billion，Is the fourth consecutive months out sharply。Recently admitted that the safe，In the first half of our country appeared a certain degree of capital outflow。Our country ministry of commerce 16 figures also show，July our country actually using a foreign investment of 7.58 billion us dollars，A 8.7% decline from a year earlier。 

　　“主要原因是7月数据显示中国外贸和中国经济在进一步放缓。”冯建林接受记者采访时说。他认为，部分投资者和企业将资金撤出中国，同时卖出人民币，是其对中国经济增长前景担忧的表现。 

“The main reason is July data show that China's foreign trade and the Chinese economy in slow further。”FengJianLin told reporters。He thinks，Some investors and enterprises put money away from China，At the same time sell renminbi，Is the China's economic growth prospects for the performance of the concerns。 

　　稳出口压力渐显 

Steady outlet pressure fadein 

　　短期贬值长期双边浮动 

Short-term depreciation long-term bilateral floating 

　　7月是传统的出口旺季，但据海关公布的最新数据显示，我国7月出口同比仅增长1.0%，远低于上月的11.3%，是自2009年11月(除去农历新年)以来单月出口增速的最坏表现。 

July is the traditional export season，But according to customs released figures showing，In July China exports year-on-year growth of 1.0% only，Far below the 11.3% last month，Since November 2009(Remove the lunar New Year)Monthly performance since the worst export growth performance。 

　　商务部16日也明确表示：“我国下半年外贸形势严峻，实现出口增长目标有难度。” 

The ministry of commerce 16 also made clear：“The second half of our country foreign trade the grim situation，Achieve export growth target has the difficulty。” 

　　“二季度美元指数走强，很多货币的实际有效汇率明显贬值，但人民币却坚持不贬值。这虽然促进了经常项目趋于平衡，但给出口带来压力。”冯建林说。 

“In the second quarter of the dollar index going strong，A lot of money of the actual effective exchange rate depreciation obviously，But the insistence of the RMB is not devalued。Though this often promoted the project tends to equilibrium，But to export pressure。”FengJianLin said。 

　　据国外经济数据显示，7月美国零售业销售环比增长0.8%，是该数据四个月来首次环比增长。受此影响，市场对美国经济复苏放缓的担忧情绪有所降温，推动了美元小幅走强。 

According to the overseas economic data shows，July the United States annulus retail sales growth of 0.8%，Is the data for the first time in four months chain growth。Affected by this，The market for American economic recovery slowdown concern mood has cooled，Pushing the dollar stronger slightly。 

　　“人民币汇率是盯住一篮子货币的，而美元权重相对较大。”国泰君安证券的研究报告表示，如今市场对人民币汇率预期的走势与美元指数的方向基本一致。 

“The RMB exchange rate pegged to a basket of currencies，And dollars weight is opposite bigger。”Guotai junan securities research report said，Now the market expected to RMB exchange rate movements and the dollar index direction basic consistent。 

　　另从国内情况看，虽然7月PMI显露出一定的经济企稳迹象，但是真正的全面回暖尚有相当一段距离。 

The other from domestic situation to see，Although July PMI show certain economy stabilises signs，But the real comprehensive milder there is quite a distance。 

　　“特别是经济增长调结构、房地产调控仍在持续的大背景下，赚钱效应下降可能会继续打击部分国际资本的积极性，从而加重市场对于人民币走势的悲观预期。”业内人士指出，中国稳出口的压力正在加大。 

“Especially economic growth adjustable structure、Real estate regulation is still in the continuous background，Make money effect decline may be to continue the fight against part of the international capital's enthusiasm，So as to increase the market trend for the pessimistic expectations。”The personage inside course of study points out that，China's steady export pressure is increasing。 

　　此时，“人民币将进一步贬值以促进出口、稳定经济”成为了业内的共识，经济学家和策略师们也于近日纷纷下调了对人民币汇率的预期。 

At this time，“The yuan will be further depreciation to promote export、Stable economic”Become the industry consensus，Economists and strategists in recently in succession to the RMB exchange rate cut expectations。 

　　中信银行国际首席经济学家廖群认为，未来数周或数月人民币或会贬值，但取决于短期资本流入流出中国的情况。他预计，到今年年底人民币兑美元汇率将持平，而他早些时候预计人民币将升值1%。 

Citic bank's international chief economist LiaoQun think，The next few weeks or months or RMB will depreciate，But depends on short-term capital inflow and outflow the situation in China。He is expected to，By the end of this year against the us dollar exchange rate will be balanced，And he is expected to earlier yuan will rise by 1%。 

　　“人民币对美元可能出现阶段性贬值。不过，贬值幅度会相当有限。”冯建林认为，人民币汇率会在双向波动中逐步贬值。 

“The RMB against the us dollar possible devaluation of stage。but，Depreciation range will be quite limited。”FengJianLin think，The RMB exchange rate will be in two-way fluctuation in gradually devaluation。 

　　中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲的观点与冯建林不约而同。她认为，未来人民币将长期处于双边浮动走势。她同时强调，认为人民币进入单一贬值通道的说法是不对的。 

China's foreign exchange investment research institute President TanYaLing point of view and FengJianLin happen to coincide。She thinks，The future will be in the long-term bilateral floating trend。She also emphasize，Think the yuan into a single depreciation channel statement is wrong。 

　　中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究室副主任张明也同意上述说法。“如果下半年欧债危机有所缓解，人民币汇率有望四季度重拾升势。”他认为，从全年看，人民币汇率并不具备大幅贬值的空间。

By the Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at the international financial research, deputy director of zhang Ming also agree to the above statement。“If the second half of the debt crisis to ease，The exchange rate for the renminbi is expected to regain its fourth quarter。”He thinks，From the look，The exchange rate for the renminbi does not have the space of the substantial depreciation。