路透北京8月17日电——7月中国外贸数据意外疲软是否标志着外贸趋势恶化?国务院发展研究中心对外经济研究部部长隆国强认为没那麽悲观。他指出，欧债危机影响的确超出预期，但7月份有不少行业出口增幅相当不错。

Reuters Beijing, aug. 17 (xinhua) -- China's foreign trade data July weak accident whether foreign trade marks the deterioration trend?The state council development research center, department of foreign economic research zhanglongjiudian kingdom strong don't think so pessimistic。He pointed out that，The debt crisis indeed beyond expectations，But there are many industry in July export growth is quite good。

　　隆国强在接受路透专访时表示，中国外贸仍有很多积极因素，随着前期稳定外贸政策的发酵，人民币汇率的相对稳定，以及去年8月以後基数逐渐降低，预计全年出口有望实现增长10%的目标，出口对GDP增长率的贡献也将由负转正。

Lung kingdom strong in an interview with Reuters said，China's foreign trade is still have a lot of positive factors，The foreign trade policy with the stability of fermentation，The exchange rate for the renminbi's relative stability，And after the last August base gradually reduced，All the year round is expected to export is expected to increase 10% target，Exports to GDP growth by negative contribution will also become a full member。

　　“中国不需要再出台新的刺激经济和稳定外贸的政策，只要落实已经出台的政策就够了，要把短期扶持出口和长期产业转型升级结合起来。”隆国强称，“经济增速回落到7。8%左右对中国不是多么可怕的事。”

“China does not need to introduce new economic stimulus and stable foreign trade policy，As long as the implementation of the policy has been enough，The short-term support export and long-term transformation and upgrading of industry combined。”Lung kingdom strong say，“Economic growth dropped to 7。Around 8% of China is not what a terrible thing。”

　　中国今年3月和4月进、出口同比增速均为个位数，但5至6月返回两位数，一度令市场对外贸前景乐观。但7月出口同比增长1。0%，创六个月来最低，且远逊於市场预期的8。6%，再度点燃投资者疑虑。

China this year in March and April、Exports year-on-year growth are singly，But 5 to 6 month back to double digits，Once make market for foreign trade prospects。But on July exports year-on-year growth of 1。0%，Gen six months to the lowest，And far inferior to market expectations of 8。6%，Lit again investors doubt。

　　中国商务部发言人沈丹阳周四表示，7月份出现外贸增速特别是出口增速的急剧回落，主要原因是当月中国对欧盟的出口大幅度下降所导致。预计下半年中国外贸形势将更加严峻，实现全年的工作目标面临的压力将更大。

Chinese commerce ministry spokesman ShenDanYang said on Thursday，July appear foreign trade growth, especially the export growth fell sharply，The main reason is the China eu exports dropped substantially in。The second half of the situation is expected to China's foreign trade will be more severe，Full-year work target face the pressure will be greater。

　　隆国强认为，在外需低迷之际，期望很高的增长率也不现实。7月贸易数据这要客观看待，增幅低有高基数因素。去年7月中国出口额高达1，751.3亿美元，为年内单月最高。

Lung kingdom strong think，Now in the downturn，Expect a high growth rate is not reality。July trade data this should take an objective look at，Low rise with a high base factors。China's exports in July last year up to 1，75.13 billion dollars，For years the highest monthly performance。

　　从分项来看，出口行业有喜有忧，不能一概论之。根据中国海关发布贸易数据，今年1-7月，灯具及照明装置和零件出口增长58。3%，塑料制品和集成电路增幅分别为36%和25。7%，相反，一些传统的纺织，家电等出口都大减。

To see from kinds of，Export industry mixed feelings，Not one of the introduction。According to China's customs release trade data，This year on July 1 -，Lamps and lighting devices and parts export growth 58。3%，Plastic products and integrated circuit rate were 36% and 25。7%，instead，Some of the traditional textile，Home electrical appliances export are reduced。

　　他分析指出，中国多年依靠低成本，牺牲资源环境的代价，依靠劳动密集型产品出口支撑的比较优势已经明显改变，出口部门的工资上涨超过劳动生产率的上涨，尤其是在低端产业链上，同时原材料土地成本上升，融资成本高，外需疲弱导致订单减少等因素令出口企业压力加大是不争的事实。

He pointed out，For many years China rely on low cost，The price of sacrifice, resources and the environment，Rely on labor-intensive products export support comparative advantage has obvious change，Export department wage rose more than labor productivity increases，Especially at the low end of the industry chain，At the same time the rise in the cost of raw materials of land，Financing cost high，Weak external demand conspire to factors such as order to reduce to export enterprise pressure increase is indisputable fact。

　　此外，人民币汇率因素也对出口造成很大影响。去年8月以来，大量资金从新兴经济体撤出，中国的许多竞争对手都出现货币贬值，中国汇率却在升值，也削弱了中国出口商品的竞争力。

In addition，The exchange rate for the renminbi factors on exports also caused a great influence。Since August last year，A lot of money from emerging economies out of，Many of China's rivals have appeared currency devaluation，China's exchange rate is in appreciation，Also weakened the competitiveness of Chinese export commodities。

　　根据国际清算银行(BIS)数据，7月人民币实际有效汇率连续第二个月回落，至108。52。而今年1月曾创下1994年该数据公布来新高的109。4，较去年8月升值8。1%。

According to the bank for international settlements(BIS)data，July RMB real effective exchange rate for the second consecutive months back，To 108。52。This year January once set in 1994, the data published to high of 109。4，A last August 8 appreciation。1%。

　　**支持出口的积极因素**

* * supports export of positive factors * *

　　中国今年确定的外贸目标是进出口贸易保持10%的增幅。据海关统计，1-7月进出口总值比去年同期增长7。1%。其中，出口增长7。8%;进口增长6。4%;贸易顺差941。1亿美元。

This year China determine the foreign trade import and export trade goal is to keep the growth of 10%。According to customs statistics，1 - July import and export value than last year the corresponding period grows 7。1%。the，Export growth and。8%;6 import growth。4%;The trade surplus of 941。100 million dollars。

　　隆国强认为，未来支持中国出口的积极因素包括:政府已经出台的退税、贸易便利化及融资等积极政策效力将逐渐显现，对保出口的作用不可低估;其次人民币汇率相对稳定，目前出现贬值预期，有助於收窄中国和等竞争对手的差距;同时内需不旺，产能过剩也将迫使部分企业转向外销。

Lung kingdom strong think，The future support China's export of positive factors include: the government has on the introduction of the tax refund、Trade facilitation and financing positive policy effect will gradually appear，Against the role of export cannot be underestimated;Secondly the RMB exchange rate stable，There are expected depreciation，Help narrow China and competitors such as the gap;At the same time, domestic demand is not busy，Excess capacity will also force some enterprises to export。

　　此外受基数因素影响，预计8月以後有利於中国出口增长率的提高。因去年7月以後出口额往下调，8月後更是一路下滑。

In addition by base factors，August is expected to be helpful for China after the improvement of export growth。Because after July last year to cut exports，August is all the way down。

　　“越是在这种时候越会发现好的企业很好，而本来就没有多少优势的企业就会越差，更需要通过市场的力量来加快优胜劣汰。”隆国强称，从中长期看也是中国面临比较优势转换的过程，也是企业结构调整的好时机。

“The more we are in this time the more you'll find that good enterprise is very good，And was not many advantages of the enterprise will be worse，Need more through the market power to speed up the survival of the fittest。”Lung kingdom strong say，From the long run is also China is faced with the comparative advantage of the conversion process，Is also a good time to enterprise structure adjustment。

　　面对眼下对中国经济增速放缓，政策是否该加力的分歧。多年从事外贸研究的隆国强就认为，在全球经都不景气的大环境下，中国能保持7%以上的增幅已经相当不错了，不必刻意去通过政策的刺激追求经济高增长。

Face to the China's economic growth is slowing，Policy is the strength differences。For many years engaged in the foreign trade research lung countries that strong，In the global recession by all of the environment，China can keep more than 7% of the growth is good enough，Don't intentionally go through the policy stimulus in the pursuit of economic growth。