在部分专家和企业家看来，印尼作为中国镍矿的两大进口来源国之一，其提高原矿出口关税，必然会冲击中国的镍矿和镍铁市场。虽然为应对这一政策，中国多数企业提前采购、囤积了不少镍矿，但在中国企业的镍矿库存消化之后，印尼的这一政策影响将会逐步显现。

In the part of the experts and entrepreneurs looks，Indonesia as China's nickel ore two big one of import source，Raise the run of mine ore export tariffs，Will impact China's nickel and nickel iron market。Although to cope with this policy，Most Chinese enterprises purchase in advance、Hoarding a lot of nickel，But in China enterprise's nickel ore inventory after digestion，Indonesia's the policy effect will gradually appear。

　　在8月9日的“2012年镍铬锰硅国际市场研讨会暨钨钼钒钛2012年会”上，天津太钢天管不锈钢有限公司高级工程师梁伟刚、厦门市墩峰进出口有限公司副总裁兼投资总监王汝颜和浙江华光冶炼集团有限公司董事长刘光火，对印尼限制出口、提高关税政策给中国镍矿、镍铁及不锈钢市场带来的负面影响，表达了同样的担忧。

On August 9,“In 2012, nickel chromium manganese silicon international market seminar tungsten molybdenum vanadium titanium 2012 annual meeting”on，Tianjin taigang day tube stainless steel co., LTD., senior engineer LiangWeiGang、Xiamen pier peak import and export co., LTD., vice President and chief investment officer WangRuYan and zhejiang uh guano smelting group co., LTD., chairman of the board LiuGuangHuo，In Indonesia export restrictions、Improve the tariff policy to China's nickel、Nickel iron and stainless steel from the negative influence of the market，Express the same concern。

　　梁伟刚回忆说，在2005年之前，红土镍矿在印尼和菲律宾几乎无人问津，因为当时中国不锈钢的上游原料电解镍的价格过于昂贵，最终逼迫中国企业发明了用便宜的低品位红土镍矿生产镍铁，进而取代电解镍的工艺。

LiangWeiGang recalls，In the 2005 years ago，Laterite nickel ore in Indonesia and the Philippines almost deserted，Because at that time China's stainless steel raw material upstream electrolytic nickel price is too expensive，Eventually forcing China enterprise invented by cheap low grade laterite nickel production nickel iron，Then replace electrolytic nickel technology。

　　这一工艺为不锈钢生产开辟了新路，为降低中国不锈钢生产成本做出了巨大贡献。从2006年至今，我国从印尼和菲律宾进口的镍矿屡创新高，国内不锈钢冶炼企业对镍铁的使用比例也不断提高，相应对电解镍的依赖度不断降低。

The process for stainless steel production opened up a new path，To reduce the cost of stainless steel production in China have made great contributions。From 2006 to now，Our country imported from Indonesia and the Philippines nickel ore reached record high，The domestic stainless steel smelting enterprises for nickel iron use proportion also continuously improve，Corresponding to the electrolytic nickel continuously reduce dependence。

　　“太钢、宝钢、张浦等大型不锈钢厂镍铁使用比例均已达40%-45%水平；酒钢、东方特钢、西南不锈甚至达到45%-50%以上水平。”梁伟刚还列举数据称，今年上半年我国镍铁产量达13.8万吨，同比增加了72%。

“taigang、baosteel、ZhangPu and other large stainless steel factory nickel iron use proportion are already amounted to 40% 45% level；jisco、Oriental special steel、Southwest stainless even 45% - 50% level。”LiangWeiGang also listed data says，In the first half of this year our country nickel iron output reached 138000 tons，Increased 72% year-on-year。

　　刘光火则表示，现在“甚至有部分钢厂已做到完全用镍铁代替镍用量”。

LiuGuangHuo, said，now“Even some steel mills have been able to do completely with nickel iron instead of nickel consumption”。

　　镍铁的出现，替代了电解镍，降低了不锈钢企业生产成本，但是，在业内人士看来，我国镍矿来源太过集中，而一旦这些国外资源富集国出台限制原矿出口、提高出口关税的政策，将对我国的镍矿进口造成了巨大冲击。

Nickel iron appear，Substitute for electrolytic nickel，To reduce the cost of production of stainless steel enterprises，but，In the personage inside course of study looks，Our country nickel ore source too centralized，But once these foreign resources FuJiGuo issued limit run of mine ore export、Improve the export tariff policy，Will China's nickel ore import caused a huge impact。

　　据刘光火介绍，印尼与菲律宾是我国红土镍矿的主要来源国，在2011年，我国全年累计进口镍矿砂及精矿4817.30万吨，其中有2567.06万吨来自印尼，2208.72万吨来自菲律宾，分别占进口总量的53%和46%，即我国99%的镍矿砂及精矿来源于印尼与菲律宾。

According to LiuGuangHuo introduced，Indonesia and the Philippines is our country laterite nickel ore main sources，In 2011，Our country annual accumulative total import nickel ore and concentrate 48.173 million tons，There are 25.6706 million tons from Indonesia，From the Philippines 22.0872 million tons，Accounted for 53% and 46% of the total amount of imports，Namely our country 99% nickel ore and concentrate from Indonesia and the Philippines。

　　资料显示，今年以来，印尼限制出口、提高原矿出口关税的政策一再升级。今年3月，印尼颁布新的矿业法，将外资在印尼矿业上持有的股权限制在49%以内。

Data shows，Since this year，Indonesia restricted from export、Improve the run of mine ore export tariff policy repeatedly upgrade。In march this year，Indonesia promulgation of the new mining method，Will foreign capital in Indonesia mining on the equity of holding a limitation in 49% less than。

　　5月6日，印尼对铜、铅、镍、金、银、锌、铬、锰、钼、铂、锑、铝土、海砂、铁矿石14种原矿征收20%的出口税；5月7日，印尼规定，出口上述14种矿产原料的企业，先必须满足以下5项条件：支付20%出口税、拥有矿物与能源总司的资格证书、缴付税务和非税（关税）、提出加工和精炼计划，以及签署廉洁契约。

On May 6,，Indonesia to copper、lead、nickel、gold、silver、zinc、chrome、manganese、molybdenum、platinum、antimony、bauxite、Sea sand、Iron ore and kind of run of mine ore collection of 20% of the export tax；On May 7,，Indonesia provisions，Export the above 14 kinds of mineral raw materials enterprise，First must meet the following five conditions：Pay 20% export tax、With mineral and energy ZongSi qualification certificate、Pay the tax and the tax（tariff）、Processing and refining plan is put forward，Clean and signed the contract。

　　5月9日，印尼颁布《印尼贸易部关于出口工矿产品的部长条例》No.29；6月11日，印尼对至少40家已经注册的矿石出口商，在6到8月份的出口额作出了一定量的限制。

On May 9,，Indonesia issued《Indonesia on export trade of industrial products minister regulations》No. 29；On June 11,，Indonesia to at least 40 has registered ore exporter，In 6 to 8 months exports made a certain amount of limit。

　　王汝颜猜测说，印尼限制原矿出口政策一再升级的原因，一个是出于其本国环保的要求；另一个是因为各个省的权利太大，印尼中央方面想借此收回权利。此外，增加税收，并将成本转嫁到了下游工厂和贸易商身上，也可能是印尼出台前述政策的一大原因。

WangRuYan guess said，Indonesia limit run of mine ore export policy again and again the cause of the upgrade，A is for their own environmental protection request；Another because each province rights is too big，Indonesia central aspects would like to take the right back。In addition，To increase taxes，And the cost to the downstream factories and traders body，May also be Indonesia on the policy one big reason。

　　在前述印尼增收20%出口关税的14种原矿中，业内预计，印尼限制镍矿出口、增加镍矿出口关税，对中国镍矿、镍铁乃至不锈钢市场的影响甚巨。

In the foregoing Indonesia 20% export tariff income of 14 kinds of run of mine ore，The industry is expected to，Indonesia nickel ore export restrictions、Increase nickel ore export tariffs，On China's nickel、Nickel iron and stainless steel market is very tremendous influence。

　　而在印尼出台上述政策之后，王汝颜猜测，我国另一大镍矿来源国菲律宾，也有可能跟进出台类似的限制原矿出口、增加出口关税的政策。

And in Indonesia after the above policy issued，WangRuYan guess，Our country another big nickel ore source the Philippines，May also follow up on similar restrictions run of mine ore export、Increase the export tariff policy。

　　值得一提的是，在印尼相关政策出台了，我国多数企业提前做了进口、囤积镍矿的准备。数据显示，今年以来，我国镍矿港口库存量处于直线上升态势，从年初的1000多万吨上升到了6月下旬的1760万吨。

Be worth what carry is，In Indonesia relevant policy issued，Most of our country enterprise in advance for import、Hoarding nickel ore preparation。Data display，Since this year，Our country nickel ore port inventory in a straight line the rise，At the beginning of the year from more than 1000 tons up to late June of 17.6 million tons。

　　尽管港存量增加了将近一倍，但在梁伟刚看来，随着原有库存的逐步消化，印尼提高原矿出口关税对后期镍矿价格的影响将会逐步显现。

Although Hong Kong stock nearly doubled，But in LiangWeiGang looks，Along with the original stock gradually digestion，Indonesia improve run of mine ore export tariffs to the influence of late nickel prices will gradually appear。

　　刘光火则直言，印尼限制镍矿出口的政策如若彻底执行，对我国镍铁行业的打击将是沉重的，待库存消耗殆尽之时，在镍矿进口领域无优势的企业将面临淘汰，整个镍铁行业由此而引发新一轮洗牌的可能性较大。

LiuGuangHuo is the truth，Indonesia limit nickel ore export policy if thoroughly carry out，Nickel iron industry of our country the strike would be heavy，To inventory the exhausted，In nickel ore import field without the advantages of enterprise will face elimination，The nickel iron industry arising from a new shuffle probability。

　　“即使从其它国家弥补了镍矿进口缺口，来自印尼的低价镍铁也将对国内镍铁行业造成不小的冲击”。

“Even from other countries to make up for the nickel ore import gap，From Indonesia's low nickel iron will to domestic nickel iron industry caused great impact”。

　　刘光火认为，短期内印尼的此项政策有利于提振红土镍矿和镍铁价格，但长期来看来，自矿产地的低价镍铁将会对国内镍铁企业的生存构成“致命性威胁”，如果无有力的保护性政策措施，国内镍铁市场或许将被外国企业所占领，进而丧失定价权，被动接受供应商报价，不锈钢生产企业也可能陷入被国外原料供应商绑架的不利境地。

LiuGuangHuo think，In the short term Indonesia this policy to boost laterite nickel and nickel iron price，But long-term to looks，Since the orefield low nickel iron will to domestic nickel iron enterprise survival composition“Lethal threat”，If no powerful protective policies and measures，Domestic nickel iron market perhaps will be foreign enterprise occupation，Then the loss of pricing，Passive accept supplier offer，Stainless steel production enterprise may also in foreign suppliers kidnapped disadvantage。

　　据刘光火测算，印尼本地每吨红土镍矿到厂价仅为310元/吨，电费为世界第二低，仅为7美分/度（以现今汇率折算为0.44元/度），且印尼煤、粉煤价格均低于国内，在不考虑人工成本、设备折旧以及期间费用的情况下，印尼每吨中镍铁成本比国内低3695元。

According to LiuGuangHuo measure，Indonesia local per ton laterite nickel ore DaoChangJia only for 310 yuan/ton，Electricity is the world's second low，Is only 7 cents/degree（In today's exchange rate is 0.44 yuan/degree），And Indonesia coal、Coal prices are lower than the domestic，In not consider cost of labor、Equipment depreciation and during expense，Indonesia per ton of nickel iron cost than the domestic low 3695 yuan。

　　在这种可以预见的行业风险下，刘光火认为，鼓励国内镍冶炼企业积极“走出去”，在上游镍矿开采和加工领域占据一席之地，或许是拯救中国镍铁行业和不锈钢行业的、为数不多的可行办法之一。

In the foreseeable industry under the risk，LiuGuangHuo think，Encourage domestic nickel smelting enterprises to actively“Go out”，In the upstream nickel ore mining and processing areas occupy a place，Perhaps is to save China's nickel iron industry and stainless steel industry、One of the few feasible measures。

　　王汝颜也表示，从这一点看出，未来在印尼、菲律宾等矿产地建加工厂将是一个趋势。但他补充说，在这两个国家建加工厂要考虑矿山的储量规模、加工厂资金量、投资回报率、外资股权比例规定、物流成本、矿的品位和因当地雨季而造成的镍矿含水量大等一系列问题。

WangRuYan also said，See from this point，The future in Indonesia、The Philippines orefield built plant will be a trend。But he added，In these two countries to build processing factory to consider mine reserves scale、Plant financing volume、Rate of return on investment、Foreign equity ratio regulation、Logistics cost、Ore grade and for the local rainy season and cause of nickel big water content and a series of problems。

　　据悉，菲律宾在矿石生产分配协议（MPSA）上，对外商投资矿业的股权比例规定为，菲律宾本地最高占比60%，外商股权最高是40%。

It is reported，The Philippines in ore production distribution agreement（MPSA）on，Foreign investment in mining the shareholding proportions of the provisions for，The Philippines local supreme accounted for more than 60%，The highest foreign equity is 40%。