国际糖市延续供过于求格局

International sugar city continue supply exceeds demand pattern

　　从2010/11制糖年起，国际食糖市场开始扭转供不应求的状态，逐渐呈现过剩格局。多家机构预测，2011/12制糖年全球食糖过剩量在500万~700万吨，而如果不出意外，2012/13制糖年将迎来第三个供过于求的年份。

From 2010/11 sugar year，International sugar market began to reverse supply，Gradually present surplus pattern。Many agencies prediction，2011/12 sugar years global sugar excess quantity in 5 million ~ 7 million tons，And if no accident，2012/13 sugar years will usher in the third year of supply exceeds demand。

　　荷兰拉博银行2012年5月下旬的报告预测，2012/13制糖年全球食糖将过剩460万吨，摩根士丹利则表示其预测的过剩量将有可能达到780万吨。6月8日，糖业咨询机构Kingsman将其前期预测的过剩570万吨上调至930万吨，英国糖业贸易公司Czarnikow则预测过剩840万吨。由此可见，国际糖市供需基本面的主要趋势仍将维持宽松状态，而上述结论在今年以来的洲际交易所(ICE)糖市运行中已有所反映，盘中原糖期价几度试图攻破25美分未果，且多数时间运行于相对较低的20~22美分区域。

Rabobank in May 2012, the report forecasts late，2012/13 sugar years global excess sugar will be 4.6 million tons，Morgan Stanley, said the forecast of the excess quantity will likely reach 7.8 million tons。June 8，Sugar industry will be the first Kingsman consultation institute forecast 5.7 million tons of excess raised to 9.3 million tons，British industry trade company Czarnikow are predicting a surplus of 8.4 million tons。Thus it can be seen，International sugar city basic supply and demand of the main trend will still maintain loose state，The conclusion in this year since the intercontinental exchange(ice)Sugar city operation has been reflected，Pan QiJia sugar degrees in an attempt to defeat 25 cents not if really，And most of the time run in the relatively low 20 to 22 cents area。

　　全球糖市过剩格局主要是因为几大主产国产量大幅增加，其中印度、泰国、巴西、俄罗斯等国产量均处于历史高位，尤其是泰国和俄罗斯，近两年食糖产量接连创历史新高。2010/11制糖年巴西主产区中南部地区食糖产量创下3350万吨历史纪录。2011/12制糖年受甘蔗老化影响，这一数字降至3130万吨。而随着甘蔗的扩种及翻新，2012/13制糖年其甘蔗产量将有所增加，市场普遍预期在3300万吨以上。

Global sugar city surplus pattern mainly because of a few big main countries production sharply increased，The Indian、Thailand、Brazil、Russia and other countries output at record highs，Especially Thailand and Russia，After nearly two years sugar yield a record。2010/11 sugar producing in Brazil in the central sugar yield a record 33.5 million tons of historical records。2011/12 sugar cane aging influence by years，The digital down to 31.3 million tons。But along with the cane KuoZhong and renovation，In the 2012/13 sugar cane production will increase，Market is expected in 33 million tons。

　　尽管如此，天气因素在5~6月份严重制约了本榨季巴西中南部地区的食糖生产。今年6月该地区降雨水平大幅超过往年同期，因降雨而导致的停工日数达到11天，去年同期仅为6天。近3个榨季以来，该地区5月份食糖产量分别为410万、383万和298万吨，6月份的产量分别为485万、459万和317万吨，同比均大幅下降。同样也是受反季节降雨影响，后期甘蔗长势相对较好，因此预计整个榨季的食糖产量将能够达到预期的3300万吨水平。不过短期内，天气对当时的糖价还是产生了利多影响，直至7月中旬，ICE10合约期价上涨至24美分一线。但随着7月份巴西生产进度恢复，国际糖价重新回落。7月产糖量达到561万吨，一举超过去年以及前年同期水平，扭转减产局面，这也是从7月下旬之后ICE原糖期价持续回落的主要原因。

Even so，The weather factors in 5 ~ 6 months have seriously restricted the this would Brazil of south and central sugar production。In June this year the area rainfall level significantly more than the same period in previous years，Because rainfall in shutdown days to 11 days，The same period last year only for six days。Nearly three since the would，The region may sugar yield respectively for 4.1 million、383 and 2.98 million tons，The output of June 4.85 million respectively、459 and 3.17 million tons，Year-on-year decline significantly。Also be out of season rainfall influence，Late cane growing relatively good，So the whole sugar production is expected to would will be able to achieve the desired level of 33 million tons。But in the short term，The weather on the TangJia or produced more than the influence，Until the middle of July,，ice10 contract QiJia up to 24 cents a line。But as the July Brazil production progress recovery，The international TangJia back again。7 to produce sugar quantity to 5.61 million tons，At one stroke more than the same period last year and the year level，Torsional production situation，This is from late July sugar after QiJia ice for the main reason for the fall。

　　在国际糖价上涨阶段，印度雨季延迟到来也起到了推波助澜的作用，而由于第一大产糖区马邦和第三大产糖区卡邦长时间干旱，市场人士下调2012/13榨季印度产量预期。印度糖厂协会预计，下一榨季印度将产糖2500万吨，较本榨季下降100万吨，而近日Renuka糖业公司则将这一数字继续下调至2350万~2450万吨。但是目前巴西糖供应充足，印度主要供应期尚未到来，加上伊斯兰国家斋月完全结束，市场难以找到新的提振因素，未来国际糖价将进一步走弱。ICE10合约期价已经较远月合约大幅贴水，呈现典型的熊市特征，不过在接近成本位之后，进一步下跌的空间可能有限。

In the international TangJia rise stage，Indian monsoon delay arrival also play a important role，And because the first big ChanTangOu MaBang and the third largest ChanTangOu card BangChang time drought，Market participants would cut 2012/13 production is expected to India。India is expected to sugar mill association，The next would India will sugar 25 million tons，Is this would drop by 1 million tons，And recently Renuka sugar co will this number to continue down to 23.5 million ~ 24.5 million tons。But at present the Brazilian sugar in abundant supply，India is mainly has not yet arrived，Add the islamic countries end of Ramadan completely，The market is difficult to find new boost factors，Future international TangJia will further weakness。ice10 contract QiJia has a distant months contract greatly discount，Presents the typical characteristics of a bear market，But in close to cost after a，Further to fall space may be limited。

　　国内食糖成本、进口糖及淀粉糖为糖价定调

Domestic sugar cost、Import sugar and starch sugar for TangJia pitch

　　本榨季初，通过对广西主产区的调研，笔者计算过2011/12榨季广西糖厂的平均制糖成本。这里采用简便计算法，即以500元/吨收购甘蔗，本榨季出糖率约为12.1%，则甘蔗收购价为4130元/吨，加上每吨30元左右的运输费用，原料入厂价即达到4378元/吨。加上200元的直接人工及辅料费用、600元的“三费”(制造、销售、管理)以及税费等，合计约5700元/吨。因此，今年广西主产区现货报价在该位置附近获得较强支撑，此处为第一支撑位。若食糖供过于求的数量较大，最终将影响到糖厂销售，从而在原本较紧张的国内金融环境下形成资金压力，促使糖厂不得不降价求售。

At the beginning of this would，Based on the main research in guangxi，The author calculated 2011/12 of guangxi sugar mill would the average cost of sugar。Here the simple calculation method，That is in 500 yuan/ton acquisition sugar cane，This would out sugar rate is about 12.1%，The cane price for 4130 yuan/ton，Add 30 yuan per ton of transportation cost，Raw material into the price of factory is amounted to 4378 yuan/ton。Add 200 yuan of direct labor cost and accessories、600 yuan“Three charges”(manufacturing、sales、management)And tax, etc，Total about 5700 yuan/ton。therefore，This year the main spot price in guangxi in the position near obtain strong support，Here is the first support level。If the number of sugar supply exceeds demand larger，Will eventually affect the sugar mill sales，Thus in originally a strain of domestic financial environment fund formation pressure，Make sugar mill had to beg carry out price。

　　受国储托市支撑，国内糖价维持较长时间高企态势，5月末配额内进口的盘面利润已经高达近1200元/吨，配额外进口也短时间出现过200~300元/吨的利润空间。在巨大价差驱使之下，进口糖数量呈爆发性上涨趋势，即使排除走私糖的冲击，本榨季预计最终进口到港量将达到340万吨，超过300万吨的预估。6~7月国内糖价出现回落，而国际糖价则有所上扬，进口价差由峰值缩小至零价差水平。不过，7月之后巴西食糖生产进度加快，供应方面充裕，因此巴西港口原糖升贴水已经降至0美分/磅附近。而8月下旬随着ICE原糖进一步回落，进口巴西糖折白糖成本则再度降至5300元/吨左右水平。对比1301合约期价，盘面仍出现200~300元/吨的利润空间。进口糖成本线是国内糖价的第二道防线，若国内糖厂因亏损而惜售，则市场需求可由进口糖来补充。

Reservoir by countries UK support，Domestic TangJia maintain a long time high situation，At the end of five imported within the quota of the disk profit has up to nearly 1200 yuan/ton，The import quotas are short time appeared 200 ~ 300 yuan/tons of profit space。In the huge price under the drive，Import sugar quantity is explosive rise trend，Even without the impact of smuggling sugar，This would eventually is expected to import to port quantity will reach 3.4 million tons，More than 3 million tons of estimate。6 ~ 7 month domestic TangJia fell，And international TangJia is rising，The import by the peak price reduced to zero price level。but，After July Brazilian sugar production progress to speed up，Supply abundant，So Brazil port sugar rise discount has been down to 0 cents/pound of nearby。And late August as ice sugar further back，Imported Brazilian sugar fold sugar cost is again down to 5300 yuan/tons level。Contrast QiJia 1301 contract，Disk still appear 200 ~ 300 yuan/tons of profit space。Import sugar cost line is the TangJia of the second line of defence，If domestic sugar mill for loss and rised，Is the market demand can be made of import sugar to supplement。

　　2012年1月~7月末共进口184万吨食糖，若排除配额外进口的预估数量，剩余进口配额预计仅剩余30万吨左右，因此目前预计2011/12榨季国内进口量或达340万吨水平，且今年1~7月中每个月进口量均超往年同期水平。在进口糖与走私糖的冲击下，本榨季工业销售呈现旺季不旺的现象，不过从近期销售数据结合进口情况来看，国内2011/12榨季消费量可能好于去年同期，达到1350万吨水平。

In January 2012 at the end of ~ 7 total import 1.84 million tons of sugar，Excluding the import quota of the estimate of quantity，Residual import quota is expected to rest only around 300000 tons，So now expects would 2011/12 domestic imports or 3.4 million tons level，And this year 1 ~ 7 months each month imports all over the same period in previous years level。In the import sugar and smuggling under the impact of sugar，This would industrial sales present season not prosperous phenomenon，But the recent sales data with imported situation，Domestic consumption 2011/12 would perhaps better than the same period last year，Reach 13.5 million tons level。

　　淀粉糖折白糖等甜度成本位是国内食糖市场最后一道支撑。近年来由于糖价高企，淀粉糖发挥着举足轻重的作用，尤其是2011年国内多家饮料企业继续修改生产配方，以便使用更多淀粉糖替代白砂糖。在全部淀粉糖品种中白砂糖最好的替代品当属果葡糖浆，2010年以来，多家企业纷纷上马新的淀粉糖生产线以扩大产能。2010年国内果葡糖浆产能约为200万吨左右，产量估算为180万吨。2011年年底国内果葡糖浆产能增加到350万吨，当年国内实际产量达到265万吨，同比增长超过80万吨。2012年国内果葡糖浆产能设备继续扩建，全国总设计产能将在年底达到500万吨水平。尽管如此，2012年食品饮料企业相应下调了各自产量预期，且随着国内砂糖价格回落，等甜度成本与糖价之间的巨大价差开始回归，目前，以果葡糖浆F55报价4100元/吨计算，换算为白砂糖，甜度同样是5300元/吨左右。

Starch sugar fold sugar and sugar cost is a domestic sugar market finally a support。In recent years due to the high TangJia，Starch sugar plays a very important role，Especially in 2011, many domestic enterprises and beverage enterprises continue to modify production formula，In order to use more starch sugar substitute white granulated sugar。In all starch sugar varieties sugar substitute for best when the high fructose syrup，Since 2010，A number of enterprises have been mounting new starch sugar production line to expand capacity。In 2010 the domestic high fructose syrup capacity is about 2 million tons，To estimate the yield is 1.8 million tons。By the end of 2011 the domestic high fructose syrup capacity up to 3.5 million tons，The domestic actual production reached 2.65 million tons，Year-on-year growth of more than 800000 tons。In 2012 the domestic high fructose syrup capacity equipment continue to expansion，The national overall design production capacity will reach 5 million tons level at the end of the year。Even so，2012 food and beverage enterprises corresponding cut their production is expected，And along with the domestic sugar prices back down，Sweetness, such as cost and TangJia huge price between began to return，At present，With high fructose syrup F55 price 4100 yuan/tons of calculation，Conversion for sugar，The same sweetness is 5300 yuan/tons。

　　库存高企、进口泛滥主导当前弱势基本面

Inventory high、Import flood leading the current weak fundamentals

　　长年以来，国内进口糖多数在100万吨以下，部分年份超过100万吨水平，而2010/11榨季国内面临第三个减产年度，进口糖第二次达到200万吨，此后的2011/12榨季截至7月末，进口量更是高达308万吨，创下历史最高纪录，且大幅超过前期纪录高位。在国内消费总量未超过1400万吨的背景下，食糖自给自足率已由曾经长年维持90%以上降至不足80%，国内糖价受到国际糖价影响逐年增加。进口糖持续到港严重冲击了国内工业产糖的销售。截至7月末，国内到港食糖184万吨，以我们的跟踪估算，国储实际储备量达到250余万吨，若接下来成功收储50万吨，这一数字将扩大到300万吨。此外，中粮、中糖等央企进口的食糖也仍大量处于库存状态，该部分库存与国储库总和或高达400余万吨。

Since years，Domestic import sugar majority is in 1 million tons the following，Part of the year more than 1 million tons level，But 2010/11 would face the third annual domestic production，The second import sugar reached 2 million tons，2011/12 of the then would by late July，Imports is as high as 3.08 million tons，The earth to a record high，And significantly more than the record high。Domestic consumption in not more than 14 million tons of background，Sugar self-sufficiency rate has by the ever years maintain more than 90% drop to less than 80%，Domestic TangJia by the international TangJia influence increases year by year。Import sugar continued to port serious impact the domestic industrial sugar sales。By the late July，Domestic arrival sugar 1.84 million tons，With our tracking estimation，Kingdom store actual capacity to more than 250 tons，If the next successful collection and storage of 500000 tons，This number will be expanded to 3 million tons。In addition，cofco、In renmin sugar etc imported sugar still a lot in inventory status，This part of the inventory and national bank sum or as high as more than 400 tons。

　　自2011/12榨季之后，国内主要库存渐渐集中于糖厂和国储手中，出于对未来供过于求形势的担忧，多数中间商以及消费终端大幅减少食糖囤积，部分贸易商库存量仅为往年同期的1/3左右，甚至有部分多品种贸易商今年放弃白糖品种。近期糖协组织的销区调研数据显示，今年贸易环节以及消费终端的库存量仅为往年的50%甚至更低。从如此低迷的中间环节以及下游产业食糖储存量中不难发现，在较长一段时间内国内糖市买家难寻，糖价上涨的动力严重缺乏。广西主产区2010/11榨季瞒报大量库存，致使我们估算的上榨季结转陈糖达到100万吨，从而对市场形成长期压制。直至今年3月，市场上才只见新糖不见陈糖，而往年陈糖在12月就销售一空。

Since 2011/12 would later，The main domestic stock gradually focused on sugar mill and kingdom store hand，For the future supply exceeds demand situation concerns，Most of the middlemen and consumption terminal sharply reduce sugar corner，Part of the traders inventory is only 1/3 of the same period in previous years，Even some many varieties traders this year to give up sugar varieties。Recent sugar association organization XiaoOu research data shows，This trade link and consumption terminal inventory is only 50% of the previous years or even lower。From such a slump of the intermediate links and downstream industry sugar in storage is not difficult to find，In a relatively long period of time the domestic sugar city buyer is hard to find，TangJia rising serious lack of power。Guangxi 2010/11 major would conceal a large number of inventory，We estimate that the sugar would carry forward Chen reached 1 million tons，So as to form the long-term market pressing。Until march this year，On the market just see the new sugar not Chen sugar，And in previous years Chen sugar in December it sold out。

　　糖价走势取决于政策因素

TangJia trend depends on the policy factors

　　影响国内糖价的因素已渐渐清晰，未来走势更多取决于国家政策，预计国家可能采取的措施有：一、继续收储托市，维持之前的6550元/吨收储基准价或者降价，无论哪一种对国内糖价都将起到一定的支撑作用。预计若新收储政策出台，成交速度有望高于上一批收储，届时将较快缓解国内工业库存压力。这一条可能性较大，糖厂后期可能在高价甘蔗压力下再度向政府请求援助，届时收储是最有可能的选择，尽管目前国储库存已经远远超过历史极值水平。二、给予糖厂或农民收购补贴，若直接给予农民补贴则相当于甘蔗收购价下降，制糖成本需重新估算，支撑位可能下移；若给予糖厂补贴，则部分糖厂将抢收甘蔗，糖产量不变，增强补贴糖企的垄断地位，糖价也有进一步回落的可能。三、直接降低甘蔗收购价，这一条可能性不大，其作用相当于给予农民收购补贴，但会抑制远期甘蔗种植面积，对农民种蔗积极性造成打击。

Influence factors of domestic TangJia has gradually became clear，The future trend of more depends on national policy，Expected countries may take measures have：a、Continue to UK collection and storage，Maintain before the 6550 yuan/ton collection and storage benchmark price or price cut，No matter which kind of domestic TangJia will play a supporting role。If is expected to new collection and storage policies，Clinch a deal is expected to be higher than speed on a batch of collection and storage，At the appointed time will quickly ease domestic industrial inventory pressure。This article a more likely，Sugar mill late may at high sugar cane pressure again to the government for help，The collection and storage is the most possible choices，Despite the current kingdom store inventory has far more than history extreme level。two、Give sugar mill or farmers purchase subsidies，If direct subsidies to farmers is equivalent to sugar cane price decline，Sugar cost to reconsider the estimation，Support level may move down；If give sugar mill subsidies，Is part of the sugar mill will rush in the harvest sugarcane，Sugar production unchanged，Increase subsidies to sugar the monopoly position，TangJia also have the possibility of further back。three、Direct reduce sugar cane bid price，This one unlikely，The role of the equivalent to give peasants purchase subsidies，But will inhibit forward sugarcane area，For farmers enthusiasm of sugarcane caused by blow。

　　目前来看，出现概率最大的国储收购的政策基本成为事实。由于本次收储采取以6550元/吨为基准价向下竞拍，因此在此基础上我们预测最终成交价或略高于收储时现货成交较为活跃的价格200元左右。以目前现货报价5950元计算，或许最终成交价在6100~6200元/吨的区间为主。若一次性收完，糖价短期将受到较强提振，而短期上涨过后随时可能迎来持续下跌过程。若由于种种原因导致上批收储久久难以收满，则糖价走势将再度变得难以捉摸，或许短期上涨幅度不如上述假设，但处于较高价格的时段将拉长。

So far，The biggest countries appear probability store acquisition policy basic become a reality。Because of this collection and storage take to 6550 yuan/ton for benchmark price bidding down，So in this basis we predict the clinch a deal valence or slightly higher than the collection and storage spot clinch a deal more active price 200 yuan。At the current spot price 5950 yuan calculation，Perhaps eventually clinch a deal valence in 6100 ~ 6200 yuan/tons of interval is given priority to。If one-time after collect，TangJia short-term will be a strong boost，And after the short-term rises at any time may have continued to drop process。If, due to various causes of collection and storage on a difficult to accept full，The TangJia trend will again become elusive，Perhaps short-term rises as the above hypothesis，But in the higher prices slot will be stretched。

　　未来糖市格局偏弱

The future sugar city pattern weak

　　综上所述，国内外食糖市场基本面均处于弱势状态，不同之处在于，国际糖市未出现除生产成本外的任何支撑因素，可以维持较好的下跌趋势。市场普遍预计巴西8月份生产形势仍保持乐观，印度下榨季开榨前库存将达到700万吨，同比增长150万吨；而泰国同样将继续增产，至少维持当前超千万吨的天量产量；曾经的进口大国俄罗斯的甜菜糖产量将继续维持在500万吨，上榨季进口低迷状态有望延续。由于斋月已经过去，近期难有节日诱发现货需求，多头只能依靠巴西的生产成本来提振信心，以及10月中旬过后才依次到来的众多节日。

To sum up，Sugar market fundamentals at home and abroad are in a weak state，The difference is，International sugar city does not appear in addition to the cost of production outside of any support factor，Can maintain good downward trend。Market is expected to Brazil in August production situation is still optimistic，India would open before the extract inventory will reach 7 million tons，Year-on-year growth of 1.5 million tons；And Thailand also will continue to increase，At least maintaining current exceeds ten million tons of day quantity production；Once the importer of Russia's beet sugar production will continue to maintain in the 5 million tons，Would the import slowdown is expected to continue。Because of Ramadan has in the past，Recent difficult to have holiday induced spot demand，Bull can only rely on Brazil's cost of production to boost confidence，And in the middle of October after arrival in many of the festival。

　　国内方面，主导当前糖价走势与远期市场行情的因素基本可以独立划分，国储收购政策再度成为中短期糖市基本面行情最重要的影响因素。在此提振下，糖价将根据收储进展情况实现或多或少的反弹。收储对于近月合约的提振作用远强于远月，换言之，对于1209与1301合约具有较好的刺激效果，而1305之后的合约相反将受到来自于国储库存增加的压力，近远月合约期价存在继续扩大趋势的可能性。

Domestic aspects，Leading the current TangJia trend and forward market factors can be divided into basic independent，Kingdom store acquisition policy has once again become short-term sugar city fundamentals quotation of the most important influence factors。In this boost the，TangJia will according to the collection and storage progress to realize more or less rebound。Collection and storage in recent months contract lift up with far stronger than distant months，In other words，For 1209 and 1301 contract has good effect of stimulation，And after 1305 contract instead will be from the kingdom store inventory increased pressure，Nearly distant months contract QiJia exist the possibility of continue to expand trend。

　　此外，7月份国内工业销量开始复苏，当前主产区库存压力得到一定缓解，近期多头也可能打出库存缓解牌以配合收储拉升糖价。

In addition，July domestic industrial sales began to recovery，The main current inventory pressure to obtain a certain ease，Recent bull may also hit inventory relieve brand to match the collection and storage pull to rise TangJia。

　　不过长期来看，决定性因素仍在于供需。多家机构对广西等产区调研后认为，甘蔗长势远好于去年同期，2012/13榨季国内食糖产量将继续增长至1250万吨水平，较上一榨季增产100万吨以上。消费方面，国内2010/11榨季消费量相对较小，仅为1300万吨左右，而2011/12榨季有所恢复，据估算能够达到1350万吨水平，因此本榨季产需缺口为200万吨，然而进口量却高达340万吨。幸而国储与地储联合收购150万吨，在排除走私糖与上榨季陈糖的冲击情况下，本榨季供需基本平衡。若预计2012/13榨季需求将进一步增长至1400万吨，则与产量之间存在150万吨缺口，而国际糖价预期长期低迷，国内在收储的支撑下价格将相对较高，因此进口难以得到有效抑制。

But in the long term，Decisive factors still lies in supply and demand。Many agencies to guangxi region research think，Cane growing far better than the same period last year，2012/13 would domestic sugar production will continue to increase to 12.5 million tons level，On a more would yield increase by 1 million tons。Consumer spending，Domestic consumption would 2010/11 relatively small，Is only around 13 million tons，But 2011/12 would restore somewhat，It is estimated to reach 13.5 million tons level，This would ChanXu shortfall of 2 million tons，However imports is as high as 3.4 million tons。Fortunately, countries and storage reservoir joint acquisition of 1.5 million tons，In the exclusion of smuggling on sugar and sugar would Chen impact cases，This would supply and demand balance of basic。If is expected to 2012/13 would demand will further increase to 14 million tons，The output of 1.5 million tons gap between，And international TangJia expected long-term downturn，Domestic in the collection and storage of the price will be supported by relatively high，Therefore the import is difficult to be effectively inhibition。