国内钢材市场的持续低迷运行，使得进口铁矿石的需求明显下降。钢厂对进口矿的采购更为谨慎，六七月份钢材价格大幅下跌，钢价的一路下行倒逼进口矿价连连下挫，日照港62品位的粉矿甚至以每月每吨22美元的跌幅下行。

Domestic steel market continues to run low，Making imports of iron ore demand declined obviously。Steel mills of imported ore purchasing more cautious，Actually a steel prices fell sharply，Steel price all the way down DaoBi imported ore price fell again and again，Rizhao port 62 grade ore fines even at $22 per ton monthly fall down。

　　专家预测，进口矿价格还有下跌的空间，如果钢市继续低迷运行，进口矿价明年或将跌至每吨70美元。

Experts predict，Imported ore prices and falling space，If the downturn hong tian peng lujiazui to continue running，Imported ore price next year or will fall to $70 per ton。

　　进口铁矿石价仍有下跌空间

The iron ore import price there are still falling space

　　2009年，进口铁矿石由年度定价改为季度定价，与此同时，铁矿石进口均价一路上扬，三大矿山占据了绝对的话语权。而今年上半年国内钢材价格的深跌，已使得进口矿价降至去年10月份以来的最低水平。8月22日，63.5%印度粉矿报114美元/吨，已经跌破120美元/吨的心理支撑关口，这也是国产矿的边际成本线。

In 2009,，The iron ore import by the annual pricing to quarterly pricing，meanwhile，Iron ore import average rise all the way，Three big mine occupied the absolute right。And in the first half of this year the domestic steel prices fell deep，Already making imports of ore price last year fell to its lowest level since October。August 22，63.5% India ore fines quote $114 / ton，Have below 120 dollars/tons of psychological support gates，This also is domestic ore marginal cost line。

　　兰格钢铁信息研究中心分析师王国清认为，目前钢厂采购积极性不高，后期铁矿石价格仍有下跌空间。首先，港口高价库存堆积严重，铁矿石市场供大于求的局面将持续。其次，钢价低迷导致钢厂采购原料的积极性不高，这将进一步带动铁矿石价格下行。再次，国外矿石成本较低，利润空间仍然很大。最后，全球生铁产量增速远低于铁矿石产量增速。

Lange steel information research center WangGuoQing analysts think，At present steel purchase enthusiasm is not high，Iron ore prices are still in the late fall space。First of all，Port high inventory accumulation serious，Iron ore market supply exceeds demand situation will continue。secondly，Steel price downturn leads to steel purchasing raw material's enthusiasm is not high，This will further drive the iron ore prices down。again，Foreign ore cost is low，Profit space is very big still。finally，The global iron production growth is far lower than iron ore output growth。

　　房地产、铁路、机械等行业作为下游主要用钢行业，今年的用钢情况与往年相比都出现了不同程度的下降。房地产约占行业用钢需求的30%，其下降幅度是最为明显的。需求不振导致钢厂对后市较为悲观，国内主要钢厂，如宝钢、武钢、鞍钢、河钢等在8月份出厂价格政策基础上再次下调9月份出厂价格，这无疑将成为进口矿继续下行的最大刺激因素。“如果钢市继续维持现在的疲惫状态，钢价继续下跌，钢厂撑不住的时候，必定会出现规模性减产。”兰格钢铁信息研究中心铁矿石分析师张琳认为，国内钢铁业目前大面积亏损，但仍然刹不住产能过剩的车轮。国外矿山现在还有利润，而且是当地的主要财政收入来源，矿价下跌的车轮更不容易刹住。如果国内钢市继续疲软，而国家也没有及时出台相应的扶持性政策，进口矿每月每吨还以22美元的跌幅继续下行的话，明年极有可能跌至70美元/吨。

Real estate、railway、Machinery and other industries as the downstream main steel industry，This year's steel situation compared with previous years there were different degree of decline。Real estate accounts for about 30% of the industry steel demand，The decline range is the most obvious。To demand of steel for the market outlook more pessimistic，Main domestic steel mills，Such as baosteel、wisco、angang、River steel etc in August ex-factory price policy basis cut again in September ex-factory price，This undoubtedly will be imported ore to continue down the biggest stimulus。“If hong tian peng lujiazui to maintain present frazzle，Steel price continue to fall，When the steel plant could not support，Will appear production scale。”Lange steel information research center iron ore analyst zhang Lin think，Domestic steel industry at present large losses，But still not brake the wheel of excess capacity。Foreign mining there is profit，And it is the main source of revenue，Ore price falling wheel more not easy to put on the brakes。If domestic hong tian peng lujiazui remains weak，And the country is not timely corresponding supportive policies，Imported ore per ton per month in the fall to continue down $22 words，Next year is likely to fall to $70 / ton。

　　钢铁工业面临成长之痛

The iron and steel industry faces the pain of growth

　　进口矿价格下跌，对国产矿是一大威胁，对钢厂和钢贸商来说也不一定是好事。张琳说：“虽然成本降下来了，但是钢厂的盈利预期取决于成本和钢价，原材料价格低，钢价也很难单边上涨，钢厂想赚钱也很难，钢贸商的夹缝生存处境也会更加凸显。”

Imported ore prices，On domestic ore is a big threat，For steel mills and steel trade business is not necessarily is a good thing。Zhang Lin said：“Although the cost down，But steel mills earnings forecast depends on the cost and steel price，Raw material prices low，Steel prices also difficult to unilateral rise，Steel is difficult to want to make money，Steel trade business crack survival situation will become more prominent。”

　　中国钢铁工业协会副会长王晓齐指出，现在还不是中国钢铁行业最困难的时期，估计四季度或者是明年要比现在更困难一些，而这样的困境是由产能过剩和中国钢铁行业集中度低两大原因造成的。

The China iron and steel industry association, vice chairman of WangXiaoJi pointed out，It is not the China iron and steel industry the most difficult period，Estimated four quarter next year or is now more difficult than some，This is the plight of the excess capacity and the China iron and steel industry concentration is low two big reasons。

　　他认为，这种困难局面不是短期的，而是由于钢铁工业长期发展过程中大量没有及时解决的矛盾积累下来造成的，尤其是产能过剩问题需要相当长的一段时间来解决，这段时间是很痛苦的，他提醒钢铁行业要作好打持久战的准备。

He thinks，This difficult situation is not short，But because the iron and steel industry in the process of the development of a large number of long-term not promptly solve the contradiction caused by the accumulated，Especially the problem of excess production capacity need quite a long time to solve it，This period of time is very painful，He reminded the iron and steel industry to make ready to fight a protracted war。