据统计，今年上半年中国服务贸易出口额为906亿美元，基本与上年同期(904亿美元)持平；进口为1274亿美元，较去年同期(1101亿美元)增长15.7%；服务贸易逆差持续扩大，贸易逆差额高达368亿美元，比去年同期增长86.8%，创历史新高。

According to the statistics,In the first half of this year China's service trade exports to 90.6 billion us dollars,Basic and the same period last year(90.4 billion dollars)flat;Import for 127.4 billion dollars,Than the same period last year(110.1 billion dollars)Growth of 15.7%;Service trade deficit continue to expand,Trade deficit amount as much as $36.8 billion,Than last year the corresponding period grows 86.8%,A record.

　　与以往相同，服务贸易逆差主要出现在运输、旅游、保险、专有权利使用费和特许费几大项目中。从同比情况来看，2012年这几项服务贸易的逆差额均有不同程度的增加，特别是运输和旅游业的逆差更大。

With before the same,Service trade deficit mainly appears in transportation/tourism/insurance/Proprietary rights fee and loyalties several big projects.Judging from the year-on-year,2012 this several service trade deficit amount all have varying degrees of increase,Especially transportation and tourism deficit larger.

　　逆差格局短期难破

Deficit pattern short-term difficult to break

　　从目前的情况判断，今年前三季度的服务贸易逆差额可能超过2011年全年的水平。原因是受欧债危机的影响，世界经济增长放缓，国际市场需求锐减，导致世界主要国家和地区的采购经理人指数均呈不同程度的下跌，很多国家的这一指数甚至跌到50以下。因此，对与制造业密切相关的服务业运输和保险的需求必然减少。在中国运输和保险业国际竞争力不强的背景下，进口高于出口的现象定会继续扩大。

Judging from the present situation,The first three quarters of this year of service trade deficit amount may be over 2011 years the level of all the year round.The reason is the influence of the debt crisis by Europe,The world economic growth,The international market demand decrease,Lead to the world's major countries and regions are in the purchasing managers' index of different level down,Many countries even this one index fell to below 50.therefore,With manufacturing industry closely related services transportation and insurance demand will reduce.In China's transportation and insurance industry international competitiveness is not strong of background,Import higher than the phenomenon of export will continue to expand.

　　从历史数据看，中国每年第三季度旅游、运输和保险的逆差额都是四个季度中最多的，因此，笔者预计第三季度此三项的服务贸易逆差可能超过200亿美元，前三季度的累计服务贸易逆差可能超过上年全年水平(552亿美元)。第四季度，受节日因素的影响，货物出口会有所增多，运输和保险业的逆差金额有望缩小。海外游客会在“两节”期间增多，旅游逆差将会减少。尽管如此，预计全年的服务贸易逆差仍将达到700亿美元左右。

From the historical data to see,Every year China tourism in the third quarter/Transportation and insurance deficit amount are in the four quarters of the most,therefore,The author expected the third quarter of the three services trade deficit might exceed $20 billion,The first three quarters of the cumulative service trade deficit may be over the previous year level throughout the year(55.2 billion dollars).The fourth quarter,The influence of the factors by festival,Exports will have increased,Transportation and insurance amount is expected to reduce the deficit.Overseas tourists will be in"two"Increased during,Travel will reduce the deficit.Even so,Expected annual service trade deficit will reach about $70 billion.

　　上文提到的服务贸易逆差仅限于BOP(国际收支)统计，即所谓跨境服务贸易统计。其所记录的仅仅是经常项目下居民与非居民之间的服务交易，即跨境服务流动的统计。然而，按照服务贸易总协定(GATS)广义的服务贸易统计原则，国际服务贸易统计既包括跨境交易，又包括境内交易，即商业存在，也就是境内外资企业对境内居民与非居民提供的服务交易。通过商业存在实现的服务贸易额究竟有多少，目前尚无准确的数据，但从全球的外国直接投资(FDI)流量上可以对“商业存在”的基本情况进行初步的判断。

Above mentioned services trade deficit is limited to BOP(International balance of payment)statistics,The so-called cross-border statistics on trade in service.The record is only often project residents and non-resident between service trade,Namely cross-border services flow statistics.however,According to the general agreement on trade in services(GATS)Generalized service trade statistics principle,The international trade in services statistics includes both cross-border trade,And including domestic trade,Namely commercial presence,Is foreign capital enterprise within the territory of residents and the resident provides the service trade.Through the commercial presence to realize service trade how much,At present there is no accurate data,But in the global foreign direct investment(FDI)Flow can be to"Commercial presence"The basic situation of the preliminary judgment.

　　全球范围的情况是，近年来外国直接投资(FDI)的重点已转向服务业。20世纪80年代初期，全球服务业外国直接投资存量仅占全世界外国直接投资存量的1/4,1990年这一占比不到一半，到2004年已上升到62.8%。特别是国际金融危机爆发以来，经济结构调整的必要性进一步凸显，服务业的国际转移进一步加速，给通过商业存在实现的服务贸易以更大的发展空间。据世界贸易组织估计，目前，通过“商业存在”实现的服务贸易额大约是跨境提供的服务贸易额的1.5倍。

The world situation is,In recent years, foreign direct investment(FDI)The focus of the already into service.The early 1980 s,Global services foreign direct investment stock accounting for of the world only a quarter of the stock of foreign direct investment,In 1990 than accounted for less than half,Rose to 62.8% in 2004.Especially since the outbreak of the international financial crisis,The necessity of the economic structure adjustment, further highlight,Services of international transfer further accelerated,To realize through commercial existence of service trade in the larger development space.According to the world trade organization estimates,At present,Through the"Commercial presence"To realize service trade is about cross-border trade services provided by 1.5 times.

　　就中国而言，近年流入服务领域的FDI增长迅速，流入制造业的FDI减缓。2011年，进入服务业的FDI首次超过了制造业，特别是房地产、商业服务成为引资的重要行业。随着中国金融市场的不断开放，外国金融机构流入中国金融业的FDI将不断增加。外资企业向中国服务领域的渗透，使其通过“商业存在”在中国实现的收入大幅度增加。近年来中国企业“走出去”的步伐也不断加快，一些生产性服务业在海外的投资有所增加。但由于中国服务业的国际竞争力依然较弱，因此，与内向外国附属机构服务贸易统计(FAT)相比，中国的外向FAT相距甚远。据此，笔者判断，中国因“商业存在”而出现的服务贸易逆差额会大于跨境服务贸易产生的差额。

In China's case,In recent years, into the services to the rapid growth of FDI,Into the manufacturing of FDI slow.In 2011,,For the first time into the service of FDI more than in manufacturing industries,Especially the real estate/Business services become the important industry investment.As China's financial markets open continuously,Foreign financial institutions into China's financial industry of FDI will continue to increase.The foreign capital enterprise to the service field of penetration,Make it through the"Commercial presence"In China to achieve income increase greatly.In recent years Chinese enterprises"Go out"The step also to speed up,Some productive services in overseas investment has increased.But because of the international competitiveness of China's service industry is still weak,therefore,And introverted foreign subsidiary service trade statistics(fat)Compared with,China's outgoing fat peak-oilers.According to,The author judgment,Because China"Commercial presence"And appear service trade deficit amount will be greater than the difference between the cross-border trade in services produce.

　　调整结构迫在眉睫

Adjust structure is imminent

　　基于上述分析，中国服务贸易的逆差格局在短时间内很难改变。要想改变服务贸易的“失衡”状况，实现服务贸易的基本“平衡”，我们必须要做好以下两方面的工作。

Based on the above analysis,China's service trade deficit pattern in a short time is hard to change.If you want to change the service trade"imbalance"condition,To realize the basic service trade"balance",We have to do the following two aspects.

　　一是要努力调整和优化服务贸易结构。在过去的十多年中，世界服务贸易结构发生了很大变化，以高新技术为核心的服务业发展已成为国际服务贸易发展的推进器。相应地，旅游、运输等传统服务业占服务贸易的比重逐渐下降，新兴服务业的贸易比重不断上升。服务贸易正逐渐由传统的以劳动密集型为基础的服务贸易，向以知识、智力密集型或资本密集型为基础的现代服务贸易转变。在技术创新、制度创新的持续推动下，新兴服务业的增长速度会越来越快，在世界服务贸易中扮演着越来越重要的角色。随着中国产业结构的调整和升级，中国新兴服务业的发展速度也不断加快。咨询、通讯服务、计算机和信息服务等的进出口额增长迅速。以2011年为例，三项服务贸易的进出口额分别较上年增长24%、26%和30%，且贸易顺差有逐年增长的趋势。2011年，三项服务贸易的顺差额分别为98亿、5亿和84亿美元，大大高于2010年的77亿、1亿和63亿美元。这一趋势还会持续下去。在专有权利的使用方面，近几年出口没有太大的变化，进口额却逐年上升。说明中国在产业结构升级和调整过程中，对外国技术的引进越来越多。同时，我们也要看到，随着中国对技术开发和自主知识产权的重视及资金支持力度的加大，这一趋势会逐步得到改变，即专有权利的出口速度加快、进口增速减缓。总之，我们要通过增加新兴服务业的出口，不断优化中国服务贸易的出口结构，增强服务产业的国际竞争力。

One is to efforts to adjust and optimize the structure of service trade.In the past ten years,World service trade structure has changed greatly,Taking high-new technology as the core of service industry development has become the propeller of the development of international service trade.accordingly,tourism/Traditional transportation service industry accounted for the proportion of service trade gradually decreases,Emerging service industry trade rising proportion.The service trade is gradually from the traditional labor-intensive based service trade,To knowledge/Intelligence intensive or capital intensive as the foundation of modern service trade transformation.In the technology innovation/The system innovation pushing down,The speed of growth in the emerging service industry would be more and more quick,In world service trade plays a more and more important role.As China's industrial structure adjustment and upgrade,China's emerging service industry development speed also continues to accelerate.consulting/Communication services/Computer and information service of the rapid growth in exports.Taking 2011 as an example,Three service trade into exports were up 24% on the previous year/26% and 30%,And the trade surplus has increased year by year trend.In 2011,,Three service trade ShunChaE respectively for 9.8 billion/500 million and 8.4 billion dollars,Greatly higher than 2010 in 7.7 billion/100 million and 6.3 billion dollars.This trend will continue.In the use of proprietary rights,In recent years the export no too big change,But imports rising year by year.Description of China in the upgrading of the industrial structure and adjustment process,For the introduction of foreign technology more and more.At the same time,We also want to see,As China's technology development and independent intellectual property rights of the attention and funding intensified efforts,This trend will gradually get change,Namely proprietary rights export speed/Import growth slowed.In a word,We want to by increasing the emerging services export,Continually optimize China's service trade export structure,Enhance the international competitiveness of service industry.

　　二是要依托制造大国的优势，以制造业“走出去”带动外向“商业存在”的发展。我国目前“走出去”的企业以制造业企业为主，因此，服务业要紧紧依托“走出去”的制造业企业，带动与制造业密切相关的服务性企业向海外投资，如产品的设计、创意、分销、运输、金融、会计、保险、通讯等行业和部门。这些外向的“商业存在”不仅可以为我国企业“走出去”提供良好的服务保障，同时也可以逐步扭转我国“商业存在”方面的巨额贸易赤字，促进服务贸易的平衡发展。

The second is to rely on the advantage of manufacturing power,With manufacturing"Go out"Drive the outgoing"Commercial presence"development.At present"Go out"Enterprise in manufacturing enterprise is given priority to,therefore,Services should be closely rely on"Go out"Manufacturing enterprise,Drive and closely related to the manufacturing service enterprises to overseas investment,Such as the design of the product/creative/distribution/transport/financial/accounting/insurance/Communications industries and departments.The outgoing"Commercial presence"Can not only for our country enterprise"Go out"To provide good service guarantee,At the same time can also gradually turn our country"Commercial presence"Aspects of the huge trade deficit,Promote balanced development of service trade.